MLB Betting Preview for July 12, 2026
The final full slate before the All-Star break features 15 games, beginning with Milwaukee at Pittsburgh on Peacock and ending with two 4:10 PM ET matchups on the West Coast.
Each matchup includes the scheduled starters, season appearances and starts, ERA, WHIP, handedness, strikeout rate, walk rate, ground-ball rate and home runs allowed per nine innings. FIP is displayed only when it differs from ERA by at least one full run.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Odds
MIL -1.5 (+129)
PIT +1.5 (-156)
MIL -136
PIT +113
Over 6.5 (-119)
Under 6.5 (-101)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Jacob Misiorowski — MIL
Appearances / Starts: 18 / 18
ERA: 1.62
WHIP: 0.76
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 39.6%
Walk Rate: 6.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 46.1%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.7
Paul Skenes — PIT
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.04
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 29.3%
Walk Rate: 5.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 40.3%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.0
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The road starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. Neither starter has a major control advantage. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. The road starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Jacob Misiorowski has made 18 starts in 18 appearances, while Paul Skenes has made 19 starts in 19 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Milwaukee is batting .254 on the road with a .390 slugging percentage. Pirates are hitting .273 at home with a .450 slugging percentage. Skenes at home have an ERA of 3.16 with WHIP of 1.00. Milwaukee is 5-5 on the road facing teams that average 1.25 home runs per game or greater with a -1 unit loss. Pirates are 5-5 as a home underdog of +100 or higher with a +1.3-unit return. Play Pittsburgh +119.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Game Odds
KC +1.5 (-157)
BAL -1.5 (+130)
KC +134
BAL -162
Over 9.0 (-105)
Under 9.0 (-114)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Seth Lugo — KC
Appearances / Starts: 18 / 18
ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.43
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 18.6%
Walk Rate: 7.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 39.1%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
Shane Baz — BAL
Appearances / Starts: 18 / 18
ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.37
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 19.6%
Walk Rate: 9.1%
Ground-Ball Rate: 36.9%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.8
Matchup Analysis
The starting-pitching matchup is relatively close by ERA. The strikeout rates are closely matched. The road starter also has the cleaner walk rate. Their ground-ball profiles are similar. The home starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Seth Lugo has made 18 starts in 18 appearances, while Shane Baz has made 18 starts in 18 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
KC is batting .271 in their past 26 games with a .457 slugging percentage. Baltimore is hitting .231 in this span with a .313 OBP. Royals’ bullpen in the better recent form. Baltimore is 17-20 as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -9.6-unit loss. Play Kansas City +128. Selection:
New York Yankees at Washington Nationals
Game Odds
Not posted
Not posted
NYY -127
WSH +122
Over — (—)
Under — (—)
Polymarket odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Will Warren — NYY
Appearances / Starts: 18 / 18
ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.37
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 22.9%
Walk Rate: 7.6%
Ground-Ball Rate: 42.4%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
Cade Cavalli — WSH
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.38
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 25.5%
Walk Rate: 7.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 48.5%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.8
Matchup Analysis
The starting-pitching matchup is relatively close by ERA. The home starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. Neither starter has a major control advantage. Ground-ball contact favors the home starter. The home starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Will Warren has made 18 starts in 18 appearances, while Cade Cavalli has made 19 starts in 19 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
NY is hitting .222 in their past 27 games with a .283 OBP. Washington in their past 26 games are hitting .265 with a .479 slugging percentage. Warrant in his past five starts has an ERA of 6.20 with .619 slugging percentage against. NY is 11-16 in their past 27 games with a -9.5-unit loss. Washington is 10-6 at home against the AL with a +4 unit return. Play Nationals +122.
Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers
Game Odds
PHI -1.5 (+124)
DET +1.5 (-149)
PHI -148
DET +123
Over 7.5 (-118)
Under 7.5 (-102)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Zack Wheeler — PHI
Appearances / Starts: 14 / 14
ERA: 2.28
WHIP: 0.91
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 29.4%
Walk Rate: 6.0%
Ground-Ball Rate: 46.0%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.0
Tarik Skubal — DET
Appearances / Starts: 12 / 12
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 0.95
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 30.4%
Walk Rate: 3.6%
Ground-Ball Rate: 46.2%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The strikeout rates are closely matched. The home starter has the cleaner walk rate. Their ground-ball profiles are similar. The road starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Zack Wheeler has made 14 starts in 14 appearances, while Tarik Skubal has made 12 starts in 12 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Philadelphia is batting .220 on the road with a .363 slugging percentage. Tigers are hitting .239 at home with a .408 slugging percentage. Tigers’ bullpen in elite form in their past 25 game and recent form. Phillies bullpen in horrid form in their past 27 game and recent form. Phillies are 6-14 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a 6.9-unit loss. Tigers are 8-2 at home against the NL with a +5.6-unit return. Play Detroit -108.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Game Odds
CHC -1.5 (+152)
CIN +1.5 (-185)
CHC -102
CIN -118
Over 10.0 (-103)
Under 10.0 (-117)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Matthew Boyd — CHC
Appearances / Starts: 8 / 8
ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.31
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 26.2%
Walk Rate: 7.1%
Ground-Ball Rate: 40.9%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.9
Andrew Abbott — CIN
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.41
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 18.5%
Walk Rate: 10.3%
Ground-Ball Rate: 40.8%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.4
Matchup Analysis
The home starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The road starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. The road starter also has the cleaner walk rate. Their ground-ball profiles are similar. The road starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Matthew Boyd has made 8 starts in 8 appearances, while Andrew Abbott has made 19 starts in 19 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Chicago is batting .257 against left handed starters with a .436 slugging percentage. Reds are hitting .241 against left handed starters with a .433 slugging percentage. Boyd in his past three starts has an ERA of 1.72. Abbott in his nine home starts carries an ERA of 4.72 with WHIP of 1.39. Chicago is 17-8 in their past 25 games with a +7 unit return. Reds are 6-20 against the division with a -12.9-unit `loss. Play Cubs -125.
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets
Game Odds
Not posted
Not posted
BOS +117
NYM -122
Over — (—)
Under — (—)
Polymarket odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Payton Tolle — BOS
Appearances / Starts: 14 / 14
ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.07
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 24.5%
Walk Rate: 7.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 34.0%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.9
Zach Thornton — NYM
Appearances / Starts: 2 / 2
ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.16
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 23.8%
Walk Rate: 7.1%
Ground-Ball Rate: 41.4%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.9
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The strikeout rates are closely matched. Neither starter has a major control advantage. Ground-ball contact favors the home starter. Home-run prevention is nearly even.
Payton Tolle has made 14 starts in 14 appearances, while Zach Thornton has made 2 starts in 2 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Boston is hitting .251 on the road with a .405 slugging percentage. Mets are hitting .241 at home with a .393 slugging percentage. Tolle’s numbers are better on the road. Red Sox bullpen in the better recent and 25 game form. Red Sox are 17-9 in their past 26 games with a +5.7 unit return. Mets have lost 18 of 28 with a -9.8-unit loss. Play Red Sox. S
Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
Game Odds
Not posted
Not posted
CLE +122
MIA -133
Over — (—)
Under — (—)
Polymarket odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Joey Cantillo — CLE
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.39
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 23.5%
Walk Rate: 11.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 42.7%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.1
Tyler Phillips — MIA
Appearances / Starts: 9 / 6
ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.36
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 17.3%
Walk Rate: 10.7%
Ground-Ball Rate: 46.8%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.0
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The road starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. The home starter has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. Home-run prevention is nearly even.
Joey Cantillo has made 19 starts in 19 appearances, while Ryan Gusto has made 6 starts in 9 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Guardians are batting .215 against right-handed starters with a .293 OBP. Marlins hit .242 against left-handed starters with a .401 slugging percentage. Phillips at home has an ERA of 1.03 in four appearances. Marlins bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.71. Miami has won 18 of 27 with a +8.4-unit return. Guardians are 30-33 against right-handed starters with a -3.5 unit loss. Play Miami -116.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
Game Odds
SEA +1.5 (-199)
TB -1.5 (+163)
SEA +109
TB -131
Over 8.0 (-103)
Under 8.0 (-117)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Emerson Hancock — SEA
Appearances / Starts: 17 / 17
ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 1.01
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 24.0%
Walk Rate: 6.3%
Ground-Ball Rate: 41.1%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.1
Ian Seymour — TB
Appearances / Starts: 32 / 5
ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.08
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 28.7%
Walk Rate: 8.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 30.2%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The home starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. The road starter also has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. Home-run prevention is nearly even.
Emerson Hancock has made 17 starts in 17 appearances, while Ian Seymour has made 5 starts in 32 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Seattle is batting 215 in their past 25 games with a .292 OBP. Rays are hitting .260 in their past 27 games with a .436 slugging percentage. Seymour’s numbers are better at home. Rays’ bullpen in the better 27 games form. Seattle is 20-29 on the road with a -15.4-unit loss. Rays are 35-14 at home with a +15.6 unit return. Play Tampa Bay -125.
Athletics at Chicago White Sox
Game Odds
ATH -1.5 (+164)
CWS +1.5 (-200)
ATH -102
CWS -118
Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-105)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
J.T. Ginn — ATH
Appearances / Starts: 20 / 17
ERA: 3.10
WHIP: 1.22
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 20.9%
Walk Rate: 10.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 47.1%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.0
Noah Schultz — CWS
Appearances / Starts: 10 / 10
ERA: 6.00
WHIP: 1.42
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 20.5%
Walk Rate: 13.8%
Ground-Ball Rate: 33.3%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The strikeout rates are closely matched. The road starter also has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. The road starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
J.T. Ginn has made 17 starts in 20 appearances, while Noah Schultz has made 10 starts in 10 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Athletics are hitting .226 on the road with a .349 slugging percentage. White Sox hit .250 at home with a .424 slugging percentage. Athletics bullpen in poor recent and 26 game form with an ERA over seven in both periods. White Sox bullpen in great form in recent and 26 games. Athletics are 8-19 in their past 27 games with a -13.8-unit loss. Chicago is 30-17 at home with a +14.9-unit return. Play White Sox -112.
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
Game Odds
LAA +1.5 (-194)
MIN -1.5 (+159)
LAA +113
MIN -136
Over 9.0 (+101)
Under 9.0 (-122)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Jose Soriano — LAA
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 3.40
WHIP: 1.28
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 25.8%
Walk Rate: 11.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 52.9%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.0
Taj Bradley — MIN
Appearances / Starts: 17 / 17
ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.22
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 27.8%
Walk Rate: 9.4%
Ground-Ball Rate: 34.5%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.2
Matchup Analysis
The starting-pitching matchup is relatively close by ERA. The strikeout rates are closely matched. The home starter has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. Home-run prevention is nearly even.
Jose Soriano has made 19 starts in 19 appearances, while Taj Bradley has made 17 starts in 17 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
LA is batting .259 in their past 26 games with a .411 slugging percentage. Twins in their past 25 games are hitting .273 with a .479 slugging percentage. Soriano in his past five starts has an ERA of 5.25. Bradley is in better recent form. Twins’ bullpen in the better recent form. LA is 17-33 on the road with a -10.5-unit loss. Twins won 16 of 26 with a +6-unit return. Play Twins -131.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Game Odds
ATL -1.5 (+153)
STL +1.5 (-186)
ATL -107
STL -112
Over 8.5 (-104)
Under 8.5 (-115)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
JR Ritchie — ATL
Appearances / Starts: 10 / 7
ERA: 4.60
WHIP: 1.47
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 21.0%
Walk Rate: 14.0%
Ground-Ball Rate: 43.7%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.4
Dustin May — STL
Appearances / Starts: 17 / 17
ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.25
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 23.0%
Walk Rate: 6.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 44.4%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.7
Matchup Analysis
The starting-pitching matchup is relatively close by ERA. The strikeout rates are closely matched. The home starter has the cleaner walk rate. Their ground-ball profiles are similar. The home starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
JR Ritchie has made 7 starts in 10 appearances, while Dustin May has made 17 starts in 17 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Atlanta is hitting .223 in the past 25 games with a .285 OBP. Cardinals are hitting .244 in their past 27 games with a .313 OBP. May’s numbers are better at home. Braves bullpen in good form in past 25 games. Cardinals are 17-11 to the under in their past 28 games. Braves are 9-5 to the under as a road underdog of +100 to +150. Play St Louis and Atlanta under 8.5.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Game Odds
HOU -1.5 (+167)
TEX +1.5 (-204)
HOU +102
TEX -123
Over 9.0 (-103)
Under 9.0 (-117)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Cristian Javier — HOU
Appearances / Starts: 5 / 3
ERA: 10.22
WHIP: 2.27
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 12.7%
Walk Rate: 19.0%
Ground-Ball Rate: 32.5%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 2.2
Tyler Alexander — TEX
Appearances / Starts: 41 / 3
ERA: 2.29
WHIP: 1.30
Throws: Left-handed
Strikeout Rate: 21.7%
Walk Rate: 6.6%
Ground-Ball Rate: 54.8%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.5
Matchup Analysis
The home starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The home starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. The home starter has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the home starter. The home starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Cristian Javier has made 3 starts in 5 appearances, while Tyler Alexander has made 3 starts in 41 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Astros are hitting .238 in their past 26 games with a .305 OBP. Rangers in this period hit .260 with a .432 slugging percentage. Rangers’ bullpen has performed well at home. Astros are 6-10 on the road against the division with a -4.2-unit loss. Rangers are 14-11 at home facing an AL team with a .410 or lower slugging percentage with a +1.6-unit return. Play Texas.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Game Odds
COL +1.5 (-171)
SF -1.5 (+141)
COL +129
SF -156
Over 8.5 (-116)
Under 8.5 (-104)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Michael Lorenzen — COL
Appearances / Starts: 20 / 19
ERA: 6.46
WHIP: 1.78
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 16.3%
Walk Rate: 7.9%
Ground-Ball Rate: 46.2%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.4
Trevor McDonald — SF
Appearances / Starts: 12 / 12
ERA: 5.46
WHIP: 1.38
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 18.8%
Walk Rate: 7.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 56.0%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 0.8
Matchup Analysis
The home starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The home starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. Neither starter has a major control advantage. Ground-ball contact favors the home starter. The home starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Michael Lorenzen has made 19 starts in 20 appearances, while Trevor McDonald has made 12 starts in 12 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Rockies are hitting .274 in their past 28 games with a .483 slugging percentage. Giants in their past 26 games hit .246 with a .310 OBP. Lorenzen has shown improvement in his past five starts. McDonald at home has an ERA of 7.94 with .369 batting average against. Colorado bullpen in the better recent form. Rockies are 9-11 on the road against losing teams with a +3.8-unit return. Giants are 13-20 at home against right-handed starters with a -7.3-unit loss. Play Colorado +129.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Odds
ARI +1.5 (+108)
LAD -1.5 (-131)
ARI +225
LAD -282
Over 9.0 (+100)
Under 9.0 (-120)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Zac Gallen — ARI
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 6.34
WHIP: 1.56
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 13.9%
Walk Rate: 7.0%
Ground-Ball Rate: 44.4%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.7
Emmet Sheehan — LAD
Appearances / Starts: 16 / 16
ERA: 4.91
WHIP: 1.27
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 26.1%
Walk Rate: 7.6%
Ground-Ball Rate: 35.1%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.8
Matchup Analysis
The home starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The home starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. Neither starter has a major control advantage. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. Home-run prevention is nearly even.
Zac Gallen has made 19 starts in 19 appearances, while Emmet Sheehan has made 16 starts in 16 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Arizona is hitting .263 against the division with a .425 slugging percentage4. LA is hitting .249 at home with a .324 OBP. Sheehan in his past four starts has an ERA of 5.60 with .478 slugging percentage against. Diamondbacks bullpen in good form. Arizona is 8-6 on the road against the division with a +3-unit return. LA is 26-14 as a home favorite of -150 or greater with a -6.3-unit loss. Play Arizona +168.
Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres
Game Odds
TOR -1.5 (+155)
SD +1.5 (-189)
TOR -108
SD -112
Over 8.0 (-107)
Under 8.0 (-112)
DraftKings odds from the uploaded market report.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Kevin Gausman — TOR
Appearances / Starts: 19 / 19
ERA: 4.32
WHIP: 1.22
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 24.3%
Walk Rate: 6.5%
Ground-Ball Rate: 39.6%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.3
German Marquez — SD
Appearances / Starts: 8 / 7
ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.43
Throws: Right-handed
Strikeout Rate: 14.9%
Walk Rate: 11.2%
Ground-Ball Rate: 34.2%
Home Runs Allowed Per Nine: 1.9
Matchup Analysis
The road starter enters with the stronger run-prevention profile. The road starter owns the stronger strikeout rate. The road starter also has the cleaner walk rate. Ground-ball contact favors the road starter. The road starter has allowed fewer home runs per nine.
Kevin Gausman has made 19 starts in 19 appearances, while German Marquez has made 7 starts in 8 appearances. The comparison puts immediate focus on strike throwing, contact quality and each starter’s ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Pick
Toronto is hitting .249 against right-handed starters with a .389 slugging percentage. San Diego is hitting .220 at home with a .353 slugging percentage. Marquez at home has an ERA of 7.50 with .638 slugging percentage against. San Diego is 11-16 in their past 27 games with a -4.4-unit loss. Blue Jays are 14-10 on the road against losing teams with a +2.1-unit return. Play Toronto -121.
Free MLB Picks For Today 7/12/2026
MLB Sharp Betting Card
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Moneyline: +119
Grade: B (Plus-Money Home Dog)
Key Edges:
- Plus-money dog in a low-total matchup
- Paul Skenes’ strong home pitching profile
- Pittsburgh’s .273 home batting average
- Pirates’ .450 home slugging percentage
- Competitive 5-5 record as a home underdog
- Increased underdog value with limited expected scoring
Read:
Milwaukee owns the stronger starting-pitching numbers, but Pittsburgh’s home offense and Skenes’ home performance make the matchup tighter than the price suggests. Taking plus money provides value in a game where one or two timely swings could decide the result.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals Moneyline
Moneyline: +128
Grade: B+ (Bullpen-Backed Dog)
Key Edges:
- Plus-money dog with superior recent offensive form
- Kansas City batting .271 over its recent sample
- Strong .457 recent slugging percentage
- Royals’ bullpen holds the recent form advantage
- Baltimore hitting only .231 during the same stretch
- Orioles have struggled as home favorites
Read:
Kansas City brings the hotter lineup and more reliable recent bullpen into this matchup. Baltimore’s poor profitability as a home favorite creates a favorable price on the Royals at +128.
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals Moneyline
Moneyline: +122
Grade: A- (Live Home Underdog)
Key Edges:
- Washington’s stronger recent offensive form
- Nationals batting .265 over their recent stretch
- Excellent .479 recent slugging percentage
- Cade Cavalli owns the stronger strikeout profile
- Will Warren enters with a 6.20 ERA over his past five starts
- Yankees have lost significant units during their recent slump
Read:
Washington has the better current lineup production and a starting-pitching matchup that favors the home side more than the price indicates. With New York struggling offensively and Warren in poor form, the Nationals offer strong plus-money value.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers Moneyline
Moneyline: -108
Grade: B+ (Bullpen and Home Edge)
Key Edges:
- Near pick’em price on the home team
- Tarik Skubal’s elite strikeout-to-walk profile
- Detroit’s stronger home offensive production
- Tigers’ bullpen is in elite recent form
- Philadelphia’s bullpen has performed poorly
- Detroit is 8-2 at home against National League opponents
Read:
The starting matchup between Skubal and Zack Wheeler is close enough that the bullpen gap becomes highly significant. Detroit’s home performance and late-inning advantage make the Tigers attractive near even money.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Moneyline: -125
Grade: A- (Starting Pitching Edge)
Key Edges:
- Matthew Boyd owns the stronger strikeout rate
- Boyd has the cleaner walk profile
- Boyd carries a 1.72 ERA over his past three starts
- Andrew Abbott has a 4.72 home ERA
- Chicago has won 17 of its past 25 games
- Cincinnati is only 6-20 against division opponents
Read:
Boyd’s recent form and underlying pitching indicators give Chicago the starting-pitching edge. Cincinnati’s division struggles and Abbott’s weak home numbers support laying the manageable moneyline price.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
Play: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Moneyline: +117
Grade: B+ (Form-Based Underdog)
Key Edges:
- Plus-money value on the hotter team
- Payton Tolle owns the stronger run-prevention profile
- Tolle’s numbers improve away from home
- Boston has the better recent bullpen form
- Red Sox have won 17 of their past 26 games
- New York has lost 18 of its past 28 games
Read:
Boston holds advantages in starting-pitching stability, bullpen form and overall momentum. The Red Sox should not be priced as a clear underdog against a Mets team that continues to struggle.
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins Moneyline
Moneyline: -116
Grade: B+ (Home Split Advantage)
Key Edges:
- Miami owns the favorable lineup split against left-handed pitching
- Cleveland is batting only .215 against right-handed starters
- Tyler Phillips has a 1.03 home ERA
- Marlins’ home bullpen owns a 2.71 ERA
- Miami has won 18 of its past 27 games
- Guardians have produced a negative return against right-handed starters
Read:
Miami’s home pitching performance and platoon matchup provide multiple paths to control the game. With Cleveland’s lineup struggling against right-handers, the Marlins are reasonably priced at -116.
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Moneyline: -125
Grade: A- (Elite Home-Field Edge)
Key Edges:
- Tampa Bay’s significant offensive-form advantage
- Rays batting .260 over their recent stretch
- Strong .436 recent slugging percentage
- Tampa Bay owns the better recent bullpen form
- Seattle is only 20-29 on the road
- Rays are an outstanding 35-14 at home
Read:
Tampa Bay’s home dominance, superior recent offense and stronger bullpen create a complete team edge. Seattle’s road struggles make the Rays a strong play at a relatively modest favorite price.
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox Moneyline
Moneyline: -112
Grade: B+ (Bullpen Regression Angle)
Key Edges:
- White Sox have the stronger home offensive production
- Chicago is slugging .424 at home
- Athletics’ bullpen ERA is above seven in recent samples
- White Sox bullpen is in excellent recent form
- J.T. Ginn’s ERA is outperforming his 4.27 FIP
- Chicago is 30-17 at home with a strong unit return
Read:
The Athletics have the apparent starting-pitching edge, but Ginn carries regression risk and their bullpen has been highly unreliable. Chicago’s home offense and major late-inning advantage justify the near-even price.
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins Moneyline
Moneyline: -131
Grade: B (Offensive Form Edge)
Key Edges:
- Minnesota batting .273 over its recent sample
- Twins producing a strong .479 slugging percentage
- Taj Bradley owns the better recent pitching form
- Jose Soriano has a 5.25 ERA over his past five starts
- Minnesota holds the bullpen-form advantage
- Angels are only 17-33 on the road
Read:
Minnesota enters with the hotter lineup, better recent starter and more dependable bullpen. The Angels’ poor road record makes the Twins worth backing despite the moderate favorite price.
Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals
Play: Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals Under
Total: Under 8.5 (-115)
Grade: B (Bullpen-Supported Under)
Key Edges:
- Atlanta’s lineup is batting only .223 recently
- Braves own a low .285 recent on-base percentage
- St Louis has remained an under team in recent games
- Dustin May performs better at home
- May’s 3.19 FIP suggests positive regression
- Atlanta’s bullpen is in strong recent form
Read:
Both offenses have produced inconsistent contact and limited on-base traffic, creating a favorable scoring environment for the under. Better-than-ERA indicators for May and Atlanta’s bullpen form strengthen the case for Under 8.5.
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers Moneyline
Moneyline: -123
Grade: A- (Major Starting Pitching Gap)
Key Edges:
- Tyler Alexander owns a substantial run-prevention edge
- Cristian Javier enters with a 10.22 ERA
- Javier has an alarming 19.0% walk rate
- Texas holds the stronger strikeout and ground-ball profiles
- Rangers have the superior recent offensive production
- Texas’ bullpen has performed well at home
Read:
The starting-pitching gap strongly favors Texas, with Javier struggling to miss bats, limit walks or keep the ball in the park. The Rangers also bring the better recent lineup and home bullpen into a favorable matchup.
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Play: Colorado Rockies Moneyline
Moneyline: +129
Grade: B (Contrarian Plus-Money Dog)
Key Edges:
- Colorado batting .274 over its recent stretch
- Rockies producing a strong .483 slugging percentage
- Michael Lorenzen has shown recent improvement
- Trevor McDonald owns a 7.94 home ERA
- Colorado holds the recent bullpen-form advantage
- San Francisco has struggled at home against right-handed starters
Read:
Colorado’s improving offense and McDonald’s severe home struggles make the underdog price appealing. The Rockies remain volatile, but their offensive form and bullpen advantage provide legitimate upset potential.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
Moneyline: +168
Grade: C+ (High-Variance Value Dog)
Key Edges:
- Substantial plus-money pricing
- Arizona batting .263 against division opponents
- Diamondbacks own a .425 divisional slugging percentage
- Emmet Sheehan has a 5.60 ERA over his past four starts
- Sheehan has allowed a .478 slugging percentage recently
- Arizona’s bullpen enters in good form
Read:
Arizona carries considerable starting-pitching risk, but the price compensates for that volatility. The Diamondbacks’ divisional offense and Sheehan’s recent struggles create enough upset potential to consider the large underdog.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres
Play: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
Moneyline: -121
Grade: A- (Complete Pitching Matchup Edge)
Key Edges:
- Kevin Gausman owns the stronger run-prevention profile
- Toronto holds a major strikeout-rate advantage
- Gausman has the cleaner walk rate
- German Marquez owns a 7.50 home ERA
- Marquez has allowed a .638 home slugging percentage
- San Diego is batting only .220 at home
Read:
Toronto holds clear advantages in starting pitching, command and opposing offensive form. Marquez’s severe home struggles make the Blue Jays a strong road favorite at only -121.
