This is Tony T from tonyspicks.com, and today the board is empty. It is the All-Star break — the Home Run Derby is tonight at Citizens Bank Park, the All-Star Game is tomorrow, and there is not a single regular-season game to bet. That makes this the best day of the year to do the homework nobody does. When the league comes back, you will already know which starters break.
Here is the thesis, in one sentence: hitters get better every time they see a pitcher, and our pitch-level database prices exactly how much better. Across all 557 games in the sample since June 1, the league-wide on-base rate climbs from 27.4% the first time through the order (batters 1-9) to 28.2% the second and 29.0% the third (batter 19 onward). That is a gentle league-wide drift. For the arms below it is a cliff — and the fade score, the on-base jump from the first time through the order to the third, is the number that finds them. All figures come from our times-through-the-order stat pack covering June 1 through July 12, 135 qualified starters deep.
Nobody starts tonight. Every angle here is for the second half.
The Fade List
1. Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians (+23.1 fade score). Now the cleanest fade in baseball, and the one to build around. Cecconi allows a 17.5% on-base rate the first time through the order and a staggering 40.6% the third — more than four of every ten hitters reach base once the lineup gets its third look. What makes this so bankable is that it is not fatigue. His fastball sits 93.4 mph through his first 25 pitches and 92.7 mph past pitch 75, a drop of just 0.7 mph. He is not tiring; hitters are simply solving him. That means the fade fires whether he looks sharp or gassed, and at 84.1 pitches per start he is left in long enough for it to matter every time.
Play: Live fade Cecconi from batter 19 onward Grade: A (“Third-Time Collapse”) Key Edges:
Read: This is our top play out of the break. The velocity holding steady is the tell that makes it repeatable. Books price live totals off the scoreboard, and Cecconi’s scoreboard usually looks fine right up until the order turns over a third time.
- 17.5% on-base 1st time through, 40.6% third time
- +23.1 fade score, highest among active starters
- Only 0.7 mph velocity drop — this is not stamina, it is recognition
- 84.1 pitches per start keeps him in the danger zone
2. Walbert Urena, Los Angeles Angels (+21.0). Premium velocity does not save you. Urena runs it up at 96.8 mph early and 96.5 mph late — a 0.3 mph drop, essentially none — yet his on-base allowed detonates from 19.0% to 40.0%. He averages 93.1 pitches per start, which means the Angels regularly ride him straight through the collapse. Same profile as Cecconi: the radar gun tells you nothing, the third time through tells you everything.
3. Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays (+18.8). From 20.6% to 39.4%. He actually throws harder late (92.3 mph early, 92.9 late — a negative drop), which is the strongest possible evidence that this is a recognition problem, not a conditioning one. The saving grace for Tampa is that his 79.3 pitches per start is the shortest leash on this list, so the window is narrow. When they stretch him, pounce.
4. Michael King, San Diego Padres (+15.8). The one true stamina case among our headliners. King’s fastball fades a full 1.0 mph from 93.6 to 92.6 past pitch 75, and his on-base allowed climbs from 20.6% to 36.4%. With a velocity-drop arm the trigger is mechanical: watch the pitch count, not the box score.
5. Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (+15.7). The paradox arm, and still the most profitable double-dip on the board. Imanaga remains elite early — 22.2% on-base allowed the first time through — and ordinary late at 37.9%. Ride him in the first, fade him in the sixth. Same pitcher, two bets, both backed by the same data.
6. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+15.5). The name-value fade. Cole is excellent early (20.6%) and merely average late (36.1%), with velocity fully intact at 96-plus in both windows. Because the brand keeps his live prices strong deep into games, the market makes you a better number on him than the data deserves. That gap is the entire edge. Note that the Yankees are still managing his workload in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, which only shortens the runway before the bullpen door opens.
Also in the pack: D. Martin of the White Sox carries a +15.9 score on the ugliest raw third-time line here (27.0% to 42.9%), and Roki Sasaki of the Dodgers (+15.0) pairs a 40.9% third-time on-base with the largest velocity fade among our candidates at 1.1 mph.
Availability Watch — Do Not Bet These Yet
Three of the biggest fade scores in the pack belong to pitchers you cannot currently play, and I would rather tell you that than sell you a ghost:
- Ranger Suarez, Boston (+23.4) — the single largest fade score in baseball (13.0% to 36.4%) belongs to a pitcher on the 15-day injured list with a left groin strain, retroactive to July 6. He is out of the All-Star Game and could return around July 21. File it for his second start back.
- Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati (+22.2) — owns the worst third-time-through mark in the entire pack at 44.4%, but he landed on the 15-day IL on July 12 with a finger blister, a recurring issue for him. He is eligible July 27 and will miss starts after the break.
- Kyle Bradish, Baltimore (+16.5) — a 1.3 mph velocity drop and a 17.5%-to-34.0% split make him a natural target, but he has been working back from a shoulder IL stint and began a rehab assignment on July 9. Wait for him to be reinstated and stretched out before trusting the profile.
The Cruisers: Ride Them Deep
The inverse list is where the market hands you free money, because the broadcast panic is identical and the reality is not.
Hunter Brown, Houston (-24.8) is the best in baseball at this and it is not close. He allows a 42.2% on-base rate the first time through the order and just 17.4% the third — he is dramatically harder to reach base against the deeper he goes. Note his five starts in the window: he is still building back from a shoulder strain that cost him most of the first half, so the workload may be capped, but when he is in there he gets stronger.
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Sandy Alcantara, Miami (-19.2) is the horse. Thirty-three percent on-base early, 14.1% the third time through, and a genuine 99.1 pitches per start — the Marlins let him work and he rewards them. Cade Cavalli, Washington (-14.4) rounds out the group at 29.2% to 14.8%.
Two more you should know about but cannot lean on yet: Jacob deGrom of Texas (-18.2) is skipping his next start with a mild left glute strain and may not be immediately available after the break, and Connelly Early of Boston (-17.6) has been on the IL since July 1 with elbow inflammation — the encouraging news being that imaging showed no structural damage.
The Live Betting Playbook
Two triggers, every night, all second half. First: count the batters, not the innings. When a fade-list opponent sends up its 19th hitter, the third time through has begun — that is your cue to look at the live team total over or the next-inning runs market, regardless of what the scoreboard says. Second: watch pitch 75 on the velocity-drop arms. For King and Sasaki the fastball is already gone by then even if the results have not caught up.
And the discipline that pays: when the broadcast says “he is facing the order a third time” against Brown or Alcantara and the live number moves against them, that is mispriced panic. Take the other side.
The full table — all 135 qualified starters with their splits — refreshes every morning from our pitch-by-pitch database. When the slate returns, tonyspicks.com will have the daily NRFI card and bullpen report waiting alongside it. As always: analysis, not guarantees.
Third Time Through the Order FAQ
What does “third time through the order” mean? A starting pitcher faces the opposing lineup in cycles of nine batters. Batters 1-9 are the first time through, 10-18 the second, and batter 19 onward is the third time through — the point at which hitters have seen his full arsenal and historically do their most damage.
What is a fade score? It is the jump in the on-base rate a pitcher allows from the first time through the order to the third, computed from pitch-level data. A +23.1 like Cecconi’s means hitters reach base 23.1 percentage points more often the third time around. The bigger the jump, the harder he falls.
Why does it matter for live betting? Sportsbooks price live markets heavily off the current score. When a fade candidate is cruising into the fifth with a shutout, the live total is often too low — right before the stretch where his numbers say he breaks. That gap between the scoreboard and the split is the bet.
Lines and probable starters are subject to change — confirm the current number at your sportsbook before wagering, and re-check injury status after the break, when rotations get reshuffled. Please gamble responsibly. Tony Tellez is the author/editor of TonysPicks, offering daily free sports picks and expert analysis for legal wagering. A seasoned handicapper with a TV show background and significant online presence, Tony provides data-driven insights across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and more, focusing on valuable betting information.
