The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby lands at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night, and Chris Adkins is back with a special Home Run Derby edition of his Hit List. Instead of his usual slate of individual homer props, Chris breaks down all eight sluggers stepping into the box in Philadelphia, weighs their power metrics against the ballpark, and lands on a winner plus a long-shot worth a sprinkle. Here is the full card.
Home Run Derby Setting — Citizens Bank Park
This year’s derby is set for 7:00 p.m. Eastern under warm, hitter-friendly conditions. Temperatures sit around 85 degrees with the wind blowing out at roughly 6 mph — exactly what you want when the goal is launching baseballs into the seats. Citizens Bank Park has long carried a reputation as a bandbox, and the dimensions back it up: 330 feet down the right-field line, 401 to dead center, and 329 down the line in left.
Chris notes the park traditionally favors left-handed hitters, though he is quick to add that he has seen both sides go deep with ease in this building. With five of the eight contestants swinging from the left side, the venue sets up as a lefty-friendly launching pad — a detail that shapes the entire card.
The Field — Contestant Breakdown
Kyle Schwarber headlines the field as the hometown favorite. The Phillies slugger brings a season-best 32 home runs into the night and the loudest raw power in the group, backed by a 53% hard-hit rate, a 19% barrel rate, and a 93 mph average exit velocity. His longest blast this year traveled 460 feet. With Philadelphia assistant hitting coach Rafael Pena feeding him pitches and the home crowd behind him, Schwarber opens as the chalk at +310.
Junior Caminero of the Rays is the name Chris keeps circling back to. Caminero checks in with 28 homers, a 51% hard-hit rate, a 13% barrel rate, and a 93 mph exit velocity, topping out at 463 feet. He finished as the runner-up a year ago, falling to Cal Raleigh, and returns with the same trusted pitcher, Thomas Francisco, on the mound. He is priced at +425.
Representing the White Sox is a left-handed masher carrying 20 home runs and the best contact quality in the field on paper — a 59% hard-hit rate, a 20% barrel rate, and a 94 mph average exit velocity, with a long ball of 451 feet. Coach Luis Sierra will be throwing. At +500, he is a live middle-tier option whose swing fits the lefty-friendly park.
Royals youngster Jac Caglianone brings 15 homers and a personal touch — his father, Jeff, will pitch to him. The left-handed swinger owns a 56% hard-hit rate, a 14% barrel rate, and a 93 mph exit velocity, with a 418-foot best. He is a +650 dart.
Jordan Walker of the Cardinals offers right-handed thump with 22 home runs, a 51% hard-hit rate, a 14% barrel rate, and a 94 mph exit velocity that has produced a 459-foot shot. A Cardinals bullpen catcher will feed him at +750.
Bryce Harper gives Philadelphia a second horse in the race. The veteran carries 20 homers, a 46% hard-hit rate, an 11% barrel rate, and a 90 mph exit velocity, with a 457-foot long ball and a Dodgers third-base coach throwing to him. He, too, enjoys a slice of home-field comfort at +850.
Ben Rice of the Yankees is Chris’s favorite price. The left-handed hitter has quietly stacked 29 home runs — the second-most in the field — with a 47% hard-hit rate, a 15% barrel rate, a 92 mph exit velocity, and a 433-foot best. His father, Dan, will pitch to him. He sits at +850.
Rounding out the bracket is Willson Contreras with 20 home runs, a 46% hard-hit rate, a 14% barrel rate, and a 90 mph exit velocity, topping out at 449 feet. Red Sox interim bench coach Jose David Flores will throw. He is the longest price on the board at +1300.
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Chris’ Winner — Junior Caminero
For the outright, Chris lands on Junior Caminero. The logic is clean: Caminero already proved he can survive multiple rounds by reaching the final a year ago, he is paired again with a pitcher he trusts in Thomas Francisco, and he has been on what Chris calls an absolute terror at the plate heading into the break. Form, familiarity, and comfort in the format make the +425 number Chris’s top play to hoist the trophy.
Long-Shot Value — Ben Rice
If you want a bigger price, Chris points to Ben Rice at +850. Rice checks the boxes that matter in a derby: he is left-handed in a park that rewards it, his father is on the mound so the timing and location should be dialed in, and his relative youth is an edge in a contest that comes down to stamina across rounds. That combination makes him Chris’s preferred long shot.
How to Play the Hit List Card
Chris is candid that derby props are tougher to predict than his usual in-game home run picks, so he frames the entire card as a for-fun, sprinkle-your-favorites play rather than a heavy investment. His half-joking they all go deep line is a reminder to keep stakes light and enjoy the show. The two names he would actually back are Caminero to win and Rice as the value dart.
Final Prediction
Chris Adkins’ Hit List for the 2026 Home Run Derby: Junior Caminero (+425) to win it all, with Ben Rice (+850) as the long-shot sprinkle. Regular team-by-team home run programming returns Friday after the All-Star break.
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