Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction

Notre Dame vs Penn State Game Information

Notre Dame vs Penn State Preview

The first College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal game will see No. 7-seed Notre Dame (13-1) facing No. 6-seed Penn State (13-2, 8-1 in Big Ten) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida at the Orange Bowl on Thursday night in a matchup of two iconic teams. The Fighting Irish’s only loss this season was to Northern Illinois in one of the biggest upsets of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season while Penn State’s 2 Losses were to then No. 4 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game last month. The winner of this first CFP Semifinal will meet the winner of Friday night’s CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic between No. 8-seed Ohio State and No. 5-seed Texas (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST) in the 2025 CFP National Championship at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday, January 20 (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST). The top 5 seeds (Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State and Texas) in this first-ever 12-team CFP have all been eliminated.

In their last 6 games, the Fighting Irish are 6-0, beating Florida State by 49 (52-3), Virginia by 21 (35-14), Army by 35 (49-14), USC by 14 in Pasadena (49-35), Indiana in the First Round of the CFP in South Bend by 10 (27-17) and Georgia in the CFP Quarterfinals by 13 (23-10). Notre Dame won those last 6 games by a healthy average of 23.7 ppg. In their last 5 games, the Nittany Lions are 4-1, beating Minnesota by 1 (26-25), Maryland by 37 (44-7), losing to Oregon by 8 in that Big Ten title tilt (45-37), beating SMU in the CFP First Round by 28 (38-10) and then defeating Boise State by 17 in the CFP Quarters in their last game to get here (31-14). Online sportsbook DraftKings has Notre Dame at +450 to win the CFP with Penn State priced at +600.

Notre Dame Holds a 10-Game ATS Win Streak

Since losing to MAC side Northern Illinois at Home in Week 2, Notre Dame (12-2-0 ATS, 7-7-0 O/U) has looked very good, and the The Fighting Irish (-120 Moneyline) ousted Indiana and Georgia in this CFP, holding them to a combined 27 points as the Notre Dame Defense (13.6 PPG, #2) continued to shine. In the process, the Fighting Irish have reeled off 10 straight ATS Wins and tied Arizona State (12-2) with the best ATS in the FBS. Notre Dame’s last ATS non-cover came in that aforementioned game vs Miami Ohio on September 21 so the Fighting and Covering Irish went all Fall without losing a game ATS.

The Fighting Irish are led by talented QB Riley Leonard (2,383 Passing yards, 18 TD, 6 Interceptions; 831 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 5.6 ypc) and RBs Jeremiyah Love (1,076 Rushing yards, 16 TD, 7.3 ypc) and Jadarian Price (720 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 6.5 ypc) and this trio give this team three threats running the football. WR Beaux Collins (458 Receiving yards, 3 TD, 12.4 YPC) is the team’s top receiver. Love was a non-factor vs Georgia but Head Coach Marcus Freeman said that he is good now and will be ready to go against the Nittany Lions but we will see, and if he does, he will be wearing a heavy Knee Brace. It’s hard to think Love will be his normal self in this showdown. Notre Dame averages 39.4 PPG (#4), 189.1 Passing Yards per game (#108), and 217.5 Rushing Yards (#11).

Notre Dame Betting Trends

• Notre Dame has now covered 10 straight games ATS
• ND has won its last 9 games by 13, 10, 14, 35, 21, 49, 37, 18, and 42 
• The Under is 2-0-0 in Notre Dame’s 2 CFP games
• The Fighting Irish haven’t played Penn State since 2007 
• ND is 8-2-0 ATS in their last 10 in the First Half (+5.85 Units, 53% ROI)
• The Fighting Irish are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games

PSU Biggest CFP Longshot, But Don’t Count Them Out 

Penn State (8-7-0 ATS, 6-9-0 O/U) has the longest odds (6/1) to become the 2025 CFP National Champions, but the Nittany Lions (+100 Moneyline) can win this game and probably top Texas should the Longhorns upset Ohio State in the other Semifinal. But as far as knocking off their Big Ten rivals, the Buckeyes, that may be another story. One big question here for Penn State is the availability of DE Abdul Carter (Left Arm), who is listed as Questionable, but is expected to play on Thursday. “We anticipate Abdul playing,” PSU Head Coach James Franklin said. “He’s doing everything he possibly can to play. His approach has been awesome. He’s lived in the training room. But it’ll be a game-time decision, and we’ll see.”

So having Carter (11 Sacks, 21.5 Tackles for Loss, 63 Ttackles)—the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Lineman of the Year—available is a big plus for the Nittany Lions and Points could be hard to come by in this one. Penn State is led by QB Drew Allar (3,192 Passing yards, 24 TD, 7 Interceptions), RBs Nicholas Singleton (1,015 Rushing yards, 9 TD, 6.5 YPC) and Kaytron Allen (1,026 Rushing yards, 8 TD, 5.1 YPC), and star TE Tyler Warren (1,158 Receiving yards, 8 TD, 11.8 YPC), so this team may have more healthy weapons than Notre Dame, but scoring on the Fighting Irish has proved to be problematic for all of its opponents this season. This could be a defensive chess match.

Penn State Betting Trends

• Penn State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games overall
• The Under is also 2-0-0 in the Nittany Lions 2 CFP games
• Nittany Lions are 5-2-0 ATS in their last 7 games (+2.85 Units, 37% ROI)
• The Over is 4-2-0 in Penn State’s last 6 games overall
• Penn State has the 7th best FBS Scoring Defense (15.8 ppg)
• Nittany Lions are 4-1-0 in First Half Moneyline last 5 (+3.00 Units, 5% ROI)

Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction

The Weather will be perfect in Miami Gardens (59° at kickoff, 4-6 mph Winds), so that won’t be a factor so it may all come down to who is healthier, Notre Dame’s Love or Penn State’s Carter? In the last 2 meetings between these College Football icons, each won once and covered ATS once and the Totals result was also 1-1-0. But those two games were played way back in 2006 and 2007 when Donald Trump was still flapping his gums on The Apprentice and “firing” people like Boy George, Snooki, and Dennis Rodman and not threatening to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico. In other words, ancient history.

This Notre Dame vs Penn State NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and expect TDs to be hard to come by with so much at stake and with 2 of the top 7 Defense in FBS banging helmets. The Fighting Irish are No. 2 in the nation in Turnover Differential (+1.3 TOPG) while the Nittany Lions are tied at No. 18 (+0.7 TOPG). With Leonard and Allar at QB, few mistakes should be made and with Love hurting expect Leonard and Price to get the majority of the totes for Notre Dame. Freeman seems like the better Head Coach heading in, but depending on how able Carter is, Penn State may end up looking more dangerous on both sides of the ball. Both teams outplayed their opponents in the Quarterfinals and deserve to be here and it’s hard to imagine either side blowing the other one out. My pick here is for the Under and with the market showing 44.5’s, 45’s, and 45’5’s, my advice is to shop around and lock in now. This Total opened up at 46.5. 

Kevin’s Prediction: Notre Dame-Penn State Under 45.5 (FanDuel)

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