Ohio State vs Texas Prediction

Ohio State vs Texas Prediction Game Information

Ohio State vs Texas Preview

The second College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal game will see No. 8-seed Ohio State (12-2, 7-2 in Big Ten) playing No. 5-seed Texas (13-2, 7-1 in SEC) in the CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Friday night. The Buckeyes 2 Losses were both in conference and came to then-No. 1 Oregon and rivals Michigan while both of the Longhorns setbacks were to Georgia. The winner of this CFP Semifinal will meet the winner of Thursday night’s CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl between Notre Dame vs Penn State (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST) in the 2025 CFP National Championship at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday, January 20 (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST) to crown a new FBS champion. 

In their last 6 games, the Ohio State is 5-1, beating Northwestern by 24 (31-7) and Indiana by 23 (38-15), losing to Michigan by 3 at The Shoe (13-10), and then beating Tennessee by 25 in the CFP First Round (42-17) and Oregon by 20 in the CFP Semifinals last week by 20 (41-21). In their last 5, the Longhorns are 4-1, beating Kentucky by 17 (31-14), Texas A&M by 10 (17-7), losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game by 2 in OT (22-19), topping Clemson in the CFP First Round by 14 (38-24) and then eliminating Arizona State by 8 in 2 OT in the CFP Semifinals in a real thriller (39-31). Popular online sportsbook DraftKings has Ohio State at -130 to the Favorites to win the CFP with Texas priced at +450 and the oddsmakers’ 2 favorites.

Ohio State Looking Like Team to Beat in the CFP

Ohio State (8-6-0 ATS, 7-7-0 O/U) have allowed up more than 17 points only twice—in a 32-21 setback to No. 1 Oregon side in the best game of the NCAAF season and in last week’s Semifinals rematch which saw the Ducks fried by Halftime. The Buckeyes shut out Western Michigan and Purdue and allowed just 7 points to Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern so it’s no surprise this is the top Defense in FBS allowing just 12.1 PPG while scoring 38.1 PPG (#7). With skill guys in QB Will Howard, RB Rtevon Henderson, WR Jeremiah Smith, RB Quinshon Judkins, and WRs Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate, this team not only has the best D in the CFP, but the best O as well. Ohio State Head Coach Ryan Day has the Buckeyes (-225 Moneyline) as well as they have all season.

Last week, Ohio State bounced Oregon (41-21) in the semis after ousting Tennessee at Home with QB Will Howard going 24-for-29 for 311 Passing yards, 2 TD and 1 Interception, connecting with Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith (6 Receptions, 103 Receiving yards, 2 TD) twice for scores with RB Treveyon Henderson (10 Rushes, 80 Rushing yards, 2 TD) also getting into the end zone twice for the host Buckeyes. Ohio State outgained Tennessee 472-256 and outgained the Ducks 500-276. That’s almost 1,000 Total Yards in 2 games while allowing just 4 TD. This could be a good game but could also be a blowout if Texas makes any mistakes. The Longhorns survived the Sun Devils but nobody survives Brutus the Buckeye, not even Bevo, brother.

Ohio State Betting Trends

• Ohio State is 45-8 SU in its last 53 games overall
• Of those 8 Losses, 4 were to Michigan, 2 to Oregon (+ GA, MIZ in Bowls)
• The Buckeyes have scored 83 points in their last 2 games (41.5 PPG)
• The Under is 7-4-0 in the last 11 Ohio State games
• Ohio State is 5-2-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall

Texas Facing the Toughest Defense in the FBS Here

Texas (8-7-0 ATS, 6-8-1 O/U) comes in the higher Seed here, but the Longhorns are rightful solid Underdogs (+185 Moneyline) vs this Ohio State. The Longhorns have defeated Big 12 champs Arizona State, ACC champs Clemson, rivals Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, defending FBS runners-up Michigan. Texas has two QBs it can use to in Starter Quinn Ewers (3,189 Passing yards, 29 TD, 11 Interceptions) and Arch Manning (939 Passing yards), three solid RBs in Quintrevion Wisner (1,018 Rushing yards), Jaydon Blue (714 Rushing yards), and Jerrick Gibson (377 Rushing yards), and three good receivers in TE Gunnar Helm (744 Receiving yards, 7 TD) and WRs Matthew Gooden (936 Receiving yards, 9 TD, 16.7 YPC) and Isaiah Bond (532 Receiving yards, 5 TD, 16.1 YPC).

The Longhorns average 35.9 PPG (#16), 165.5 Rushing Yards Per Game (#63) and 278.5 Passing Yards Per Game (#15). But the talented Texas Defense is the big reason this team has had such a great season and the Horns allow only 14.5 ppg (#4) and is a big part of the reason why it is in the position it is today. But that Defense will be stretched to its limits against this Buckeyes side who are very healthy, motivated and score 38.1 PPG and seem to be getting better every game, right? One thing Texas can’t afford to do here is beat themselves, so 0 TO’s and few Penalties will be what Head Coach Steve Sarkisian will be looking for from his Horns. Umbrellas are effective in a hurricane.

Texas Betting Trends

• Texas is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games (both Losses to GEORGIA)
• The Under is 4-2-0 last 6 Texas games but 0-2-0 the last 2
• Texas is 24-4 SU in its last 28 games overall 
• Texas went a perfect 4-0 on the Road in the Regular Season
• The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 Longhorns games
• The Longhorns are 2-4-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall

Ohio State vs Texas Prediction

The Weather will be cold outside but The Death Star has a retractable roof so Mother Nature won’t be the factor she could be in Jerryworld. These two College Football icons haven’t played since 2009, when the Longhorns won 24-21 but the Buckeyes covered as 8.0-Point Underdogs in a game that went Under the closing Total of 52 by 9 (24-21). In the meeting before that, Ohio State won 24-7 and again covered ATS as 3-Point Underdogs in a game that also went Under the Total (52), this one by 21 points. Expect the Buckeyes to use both their Air and Ground games to deliver the points with Henderson and Smith again being impossible to stop in the open field.

This Ohio State vs Texas NCAAF pick will look to the thought that Texas is sort of lucky to be here and hasn’t played as tough a schedule despite joining the rugged SEC this season. Remember that Georgia beat the Longhorns twice and Notre Dame beat Georgia and Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois who lost to Ball State. In the end, Texas may be hard-pressed to score 13 points while Ohio State could sneeze and score 35 points, so I see a blowout in my crystal football as the Buckeyes easily punch their ticket to the CFP National Championship Game with too many weapons of Offense and way too strong and dominant of a Defense. You may have to hide the wife and kids for this one. Make money.

Kevin’s Prediction: Ohio State -5.5

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