Indiana vs Notre Dame Prediction 12/20/2024
| What: | College Football Playoff First Round Game |
| When: | Friday, December 20, 2024 at 8:00 EST/5:00 PST |
| Where: | Notre Dame Stadium (Artificial Turf), South Bend, Indiana |
| Indiana vs Notre Dame Line: | Notre Dame -7 |
| Total: | 51.5 |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN |
Indiana vs Notre Dame Preview
The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) kicks off on Friday night with two teams from the Hoosier State, Indiana (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten) heading upstate to play Independent Notre Dame (11-1) at historic Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend where the Weather could be a factor with forecasted 27° Temperatures and 10 mph Winds at kickoff. The Hoosiers lone loss came to another CFP participant, Ohio State, while the Fighting Irish’s lone loss was one of the biggest upsets of the 2024 NCAA Football Regular Season when Northern Illinois won as massive 28-Point Road Underdogs in South Bend. The winner of this game will face CFP No. 2-seed Georgia in the Quarterfinals. Online sportsbook DraftKings currently has Notre Dame priced at +750 to become the national champions with Indiana a longshot at 40/1.
In their last 5 games, the No. 10-seeded Hoosiers beat new Big Ten members Washington by 14 (31-17), won at Michigan State by 37 after trailing 10-0 at the end of the 1st Quarter (47-10), beat last year’s national champions Michigan in Bloomington by 5 (20-15), suffered their first loss to Ohio State at the Horseshoe by 27 (38-15), and then walloped fierce rivals Purdue at Home by 66 in the Regular Season finale (66-0). In their last 5 games, the No. 7-seed Fighting Irish docked Navy by 37 (51-14), ransacked Florida State by 49 (52-3), beat Virginia by 21 (35-14), handed Army its first loss by 35 (49-14), and then beat new Big Ten members USC by 14 in Pasadena (49-35).
Indiana in South Bend For a Classic Start to the CFP
With new and former James Madison Head Coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana (9-3-0 ATS, 9-3-0 O/U) has had a dream season and has posted one of the best ATS records in FBS as well as one of the best Over marks. The Hoosiers (+230 Moneyline) got here the way most of the 12 got here, by playing great offense and defense and by not beating themselves. The Hoosiers path to this game was a bit easier than most, with no Oregon (#1), Penn State (#4), Illinois (#20), USC or Iowa on their Big Ten schedule this season. Indiana reeled off 10 straight wins before having to go to Ohio State where no one ever wins and are fortunate enough to return home with their heads still attached to their necks.
The Hoosiers have some great skill position players in QB Kurtis Rourke (2,827 Passing yards, 27 TD, 4 Interceptions), RBs Justice Ellison (811 Rushing yards, 10 TD, 5.5 ypc) and Ty Son Lawton (634 Rushing yards, 12 TD, 4.8 ypc), and WRs Elijah Sarratt (889 Receiving yards, 8 TD, 18.2 ypc) and Omar Cooper Jr. (571 Receiving yards, 6 TD, 21.1 ypc) along with Myles Price, Ke’Shawn williams, Miles Cross, and TE Zach Horton. Indiana ranks No. 29 in FBS in Passing Yards per game (265.2), and No. 52 in Rushing Yards (173.6), so this team can get you by land or by air. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in Scoring Offense (43.3 ppg) and No. 6 in Scoring Defense (14.7 ppg) but remember that they played a softer schedule than most and these numbers are a reflection of that. Indiana beat Western Illinois, Charlotte, Nebraska, and Purdue by a combined 251-21.
Indiana Betting Trends
- Indiana is 8-2-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall
- The Hoosiers are 1-2 ATS in their last 3
- The Over is 8-2 in the Hoosiers last 10 games
- Indiana is 3-13 in Bowl games, losing the last 6 straight (this isn’t a Bowl)
- The Hoosiers haven’t won in South Bend since 1898
- Indiana is 4-23-1 SU vs Notre Dame lifetime
Notre Dame Holds an 8-Game ATS Win Streak
Notre Dame (10-2-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U) have also been a huge money-maker this FBS season and heads in here with an impressive 8-game ATS win streak, the longest such streak in College Football. Only Arizona State (11-2 ATS) and Marshall (11-2 ATS) have better Records against the betting number than the Fighting Irish (-280 Moneyline). Notre Dame is led by talented QB Riley Leonard (2,092 Passing yards, 16 TD, 5 Interceptions), RB Jeremiyah Love (949 Rushing yards, 16 TD, 7.1 ypc), and WR Beaux Collins (427 Receiving yards, 2 TD) and this team has averaged 40.8 ppg (#4), so we will see two of the top four Scoring Offenses in the nation here in this CFP First Round battle. The Fighting Irish average 196.4 passing yards per game (#101) and 224 Rushing yards (#10) with QB Leonard also a great threat to run the pigskin (721 Rushing yards, 14 TD, 5.8 ypc).
And also like Indiana, Notre Dame has been exceptional on defense, allowing just 13.6 ppg (#3). The Fighting Irish are No. 1 in the nation in Scoring Margin (+26.3 ppg) with Indiana sitting at No. 3 (+24.5 ppg), so this is a great game on so many levels. Stud RB Love and DT Howard Cross are both expected to play in this first-ever CFP game but LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will miss it. In the freak loss to NIU, ND led 14-13 in the 4th Quarter, but a 35-yard FG from Kanon Wodill with 31 seconds left gave the Huskies the improbable win in a game in which they had more Total Yards and First Downs than the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Notre Dame has covered an amazing 8 straight ATS
- ND has won its last 7 games by 14, 35, 21, 49, 37, 18, and 42
- The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 Notre Dame games
- The Fighting Irish won the last meeting, 49-27 in 1991
- Notre Dame has played just two Big Ten teams this season (Purdue, USC)
- The Fighting Irish are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 (+8.80 Units, 61% ROI)
Indiana vs Notre Dame Prediction
With so much at stake, this one could evolve into a chess match with both teams trying to milk every possession and the Passing attacks put to the test with the time off, frigid temperatures in northwest Indiana, and two of the best D’s in college football. The winner here will get a date with Georgia in Athens in the next round and because of the Site and strength of schedules, Notre Dame is the deserved Favorite in this spot. The line here opened (Notre Dame minus) 8.5 but has been bet down over the two weeks on both Sharp and Square money on Indiana. Can Indiana win this game? You bet your sweet bippy.
But this Indiana vs Notre Dame NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and expect scoring to be at a premium with both teams rushing the football a lot and trying to keep it out of the other’s hands. This one could look a lot like the Indiana-Michigan game where the Hoosiers prevailed 20-15 in a defensive battle in Bloomington. If you want to bet Notre Dame ATS, best bet it now as it’s hard to see this number moving down to 6.5, and if you do like the Under, maybe wait until closer to game time when an expected flurry of Over money from the general public could drive this Total up to 53. For now the range in that market is in a tight window between 51.5 and 52 (it opened at 51.5). The Under is the pick for 3 reasons: 1—The Situation (win or be eliminated); 2—The Defenses (#3 vs #6); and 3—The Weather (below freezing, a little windy). Enjoy this slice of NCAAF history.
Kevin’s Pick: Indiana-Notre Dame Under 52 (DraftKings)