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MLB Games, Odds and Starting Pitchers for July 18, 2026
The full Saturday schedule is organized by matchup with opening game information, current uploaded odds and individual starting-pitcher profiles. FIP is displayed only when it differs from ERA by at least one full run. The Pick section is intentionally left blank for every game.
Game 1
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians — Game 1
This matchup pairs Jared Jones, a right-hander, against Gavin Williams, a right-hander. Jared Jones enters with a 4.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 8 appearances and 8 starts, while Gavin Williams owns a 3.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 19 appearances and 19 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Jared Jones — Pittsburgh Pirates
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances8
- Starts8
- ERA4.37
- WHIP1.14
- Strikeout Rate27.1%
- Walk Rate7.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate45.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
Gavin Williams — Cleveland Guardians
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances19
- Starts19
- ERA3.81
- WHIP1.15
- Strikeout Rate29.1%
- Walk Rate8.0%
- Ground-Ball Rate47.3%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.4
The Pick
Pittsburgh is batting .270 in against right-handed starters with a .438 slugging percentage. Cleveland is hitting .218 against right-handed starters with a .360 slugging percentage. Jones in his past four starts has an ERA of 2.55 with WHIP of 0.67. Williams in his past five starts carries an ERA of 5.40. Pirates are 17-13 on the road against right-handed starters with a +7.3-unit return. Cleveland is 12-15 at home against right-handed starters with a -6.8-unit loss. Play Pittsburgh +113.
Game 2
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
This matchup pairs Taj Bradley, a right-hander, against Matthew Boyd, a left-hander. Taj Bradley enters with a 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 18 appearances and 18 starts, while Matthew Boyd owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 9 appearances and 9 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Taj Bradley — Minnesota Twins
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances18
- Starts18
- ERA3.59
- WHIP1.22
- Strikeout Rate27.4%
- Walk Rate9.3%
- Ground-Ball Rate34.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
Matthew Boyd — Chicago Cubs
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances9
- Starts9
- ERA4.50
- WHIP1.28
- Strikeout Rate24.0%
- Walk Rate6.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate42.4%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.0
The Pick
Minnesota is batting .267 in their past 22 games with a .450 slugging percentage. Chicago bats .258 with a .465 slugging percentage in that span. Bradley in his past five starts has an ERA of 2.32 with WHIP of 0.93. Boyd at home carries an ERA of 5.04. Twins are 19-20 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a +4.8-unit return. Cubs are 13-12 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a -2.8-unit loss. Play Minnesota +130.
Game 3
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
This matchup pairs Davis Martin, a right-hander, against Shane Bieber, a right-hander. Davis Martin enters with a 3.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 18 appearances and 18 starts, while Shane Bieber owns a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through 4 appearances and 4 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Davis Martin — Chicago White Sox
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances18
- Starts18
- ERA3.41
- WHIP1.29
- Strikeout Rate22.1%
- Walk Rate7.4%
- Ground-Ball Rate43.0%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.5
Shane Bieber — Toronto Blue Jays
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances4
- Starts4
- ERA7.64
- WHIP2.04
- Strikeout Rate15.1%
- Walk Rate11.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate36.5%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings3.6
The Pick
White Sox are batting .245 in their past 24 games with a .421 slugging percentage. Blue Jays in their past 23 games hit .227 with a .366 slugging percentage. Bieber has been hammered in his four starts. White Sox bullpen in great form in their past 24 games. Toronto is 2-8 at home as an underdog of +100 to +150 with a -5.3-unit loss. Play White Sox +102.
Game 4
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
This matchup pairs Rhett Lowder, a right-hander, against Tomoyuki Sugano, a right-hander. Rhett Lowder enters with a 4.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across 16 appearances and 13 starts, while Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 16 appearances and 16 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Rhett Lowder — Cincinnati Reds
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances16
- Starts13
- ERA4.91
- WHIP1.54
- Strikeout Rate18.6%
- Walk Rate11.0%
- Ground-Ball Rate42.7%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.2
Tomoyuki Sugano — Colorado Rockies
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances16
- Starts16
- ERA4.80
- WHIP1.32
- Strikeout Rate13.4%
- Walk Rate6.4%
- Ground-Ball Rate35.9%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.7
The Pick
Cincinnati is hitting .225 against right-handed starters with a .303 OBP. Rockies at home hit .273 with a .445 slugging percentage. Lowder in his eight road starts has an ERA of 6.75 with WHIP of 1.81. Sugano’s numbers are better at home. Reds have lost 14 of 22 with a -4.7-unit loss. Rockies have won four of five at home with a +3.8-unit return. Play Colorado +109.
Game 5
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
This matchup pairs Sean Manaea, a left-hander, against Jesus Luzardo, a left-hander. Sean Manaea enters with a 4.56 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 20 appearances and 6 starts, while Jesus Luzardo owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 19 appearances and 19 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Sean Manaea — New York Mets
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances20
- Starts6
- ERA4.56
- WHIP1.32
- Strikeout Rate22.5%
- Walk Rate7.3%
- Ground-Ball Rate39.3%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.2
Jesus Luzardo — Philadelphia Phillies
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances19
- Starts19
- ERA3.51
- WHIP1.22
- Strikeout Rate29.4%
- Walk Rate7.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate50.5%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.7
The Pick
NY is batting .227 against left-handed starters with a .301 OBP. Phillies are hitting .254 in their past 24 games with a .426 slugging percentage. Manaea in his past five starts has an ERA of 5.18 with .495 slugging percentage against. Luzardo, in his past ten starts has an ERA of 2.82 with .308 slugging percentage against. Mets are 9-18 to the run line against left-handed starters with a -11-unit loss. Philadelphia is 12-7 to the run line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 with a +7-unit return. Play Philadelphia on run line -1.5 runs at +123.
Game 6
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
This matchup pairs Ian Seymour, a left-hander, against Patrick Sandoval, a left-hander. Ian Seymour enters with a 4.59 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 33 appearances and 6 starts, while Patrick Sandoval owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 1 appearances and 1 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Ian Seymour — Tampa Bay Rays
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances33
- Starts6
- ERA4.59
- WHIP1.16
- Strikeout Rate27.8%
- Walk Rate8.9%
- Ground-Ball Rate30.4%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.4
Patrick Sandoval — Boston Red Sox
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances1
- Starts1
- ERA2.08
- WHIP1.38
- Strikeout Rate26.3%
- Walk Rate5.3%
- Ground-Ball Rate16.7%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.0
The Pick
Boston is hitting .252 against left-handed starters with a .327 OBP. Rays hitting .232 in their past three games with a .374 slugging percentage. Seymour on the road has an ERA of 5.07. Sandoval in his return allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings. Red Sox bullpen has performed well at home. Rays pen on the road has an ERA of 4.61 with WHIP of 1.39. Red Sox are 17-6 in their past 23 games with a +9.3-unit return. Rays are 8-12 on the road as an underdog of +100 or higher with a -5.8-unit loss. Play Boston -110.
Game 7
San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
This matchup pairs Griffin Canning, a right-hander, against Stephen Kolek, a right-hander. Griffin Canning enters with a 6.47 ERA and 1.60 WHIP across 13 appearances and 10 starts, while Stephen Kolek owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 10 appearances and 10 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: Griffin Canning carries a 4.71 FIP, which is more than one run lower than his 6.47 ERA.
Griffin Canning — San Diego Padres
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances13
- Starts10
- ERA6.47
- WHIP1.60
- Strikeout Rate22.3%
- Walk Rate12.1%
- Ground-Ball Rate44.7%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
- FIP4.71
Stephen Kolek — Kansas City Royals
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances10
- Starts10
- ERA4.50
- WHIP1.24
- Strikeout Rate15.2%
- Walk Rate5.4%
- Ground-Ball Rate45.7%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
The Pick
San Diego is batting .232 on the road with a .302 slugging percentage. KC at home hits .263 with a .428 slugging percentage. Canning on the road has an ERA of 7.40. Dubnak allowed two runs in 9 2/3 innings. Padres have lost four of five on the road with a -2 unit loss. Royals are 4-2 at home facing an NL team with a batting average of .255 or lower with a +3 unit return. Play KC +100.
Game 8
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
This matchup pairs Max Meyer, a right-hander, against Shane Drohan, a left-hander. Max Meyer enters with a 2.58 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 19 appearances and 19 starts, while Shane Drohan owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 19 appearances and 9 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Max Meyer — Miami Marlins
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances19
- Starts19
- ERA2.58
- WHIP1.11
- Strikeout Rate26.0%
- Walk Rate8.5%
- Ground-Ball Rate41.6%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.9
Shane Drohan — Milwaukee Brewers
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances19
- Starts9
- ERA3.09
- WHIP1.20
- Strikeout Rate22.9%
- Walk Rate6.8%
- Ground-Ball Rate41.8%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.8
The Pick
Marlins are hitting .218 in their past three games with a .269 slugging percentage. Milwaukee is batting .219 in their past four games with a .380 slugging percentage. Meyer in his past four starts has an ERA of 1.96 with WHIP of 1.08. Drohan in his past five starts has an ERA of 2.30. Brewers’ bullpen has performed well at home. Marlins are 14-9 to under in their past 23 games. Brewers are 14-10-2 to the under in their past 26 games. Play Miami and Milwaukee under 8.
Game 9
Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
This matchup pairs MacKenzie Gore, a left-hander, against Owen Murphy, a right-hander. MacKenzie Gore enters with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 20 appearances and 20 starts, while Owen Murphy owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.25 WHIP through 2 appearances and 0 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: MacKenzie Gore carries a 3.62 FIP, which is more than one run lower than his 4.63 ERA.
MacKenzie Gore — Texas Rangers
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances20
- Starts20
- ERA4.63
- WHIP1.29
- Strikeout Rate25.7%
- Walk Rate9.2%
- Ground-Ball Rate37.3%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.0
- FIP3.62
Owen Murphy — Atlanta Braves
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances2
- Starts0
- ERA2.25
- WHIP0.25
- Strikeout Rate28.6%
- Walk Rate0.0%
- Ground-Ball Rate22.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.0
The Pick
Texas is hitting .249 on the road with a .398 slugging percentage. Braves hit .255 at home with a .419 slugging percentage. Gore on the road has an ERA of 5.81. The Braves bullpen is in the better recent form. Texas is 5-8 on the road facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower, producing a -1.9-unit return. Atlanta is 8-4 at home against AL teams averaging 4.4 runs per game or fewer, producing a +1.8-unit return. Play Atlanta -110.
Game 10
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
This matchup pairs Trevor Rogers, a left-hander, against Spencer Arrighetti, a right-hander. Trevor Rogers enters with a 4.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 17 appearances and 17 starts, while Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 15 appearances and 15 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Trevor Rogers — Baltimore Orioles
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances17
- Starts17
- ERA4.48
- WHIP1.31
- Strikeout Rate18.1%
- Walk Rate8.1%
- Ground-Ball Rate38.1%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.0
Spencer Arrighetti — Houston Astros
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances15
- Starts15
- ERA4.50
- WHIP1.33
- Strikeout Rate22.8%
- Walk Rate12.4%
- Ground-Ball Rate37.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
The Pick
Baltimore is hitting .242 against right handed starters with a .327 OBP. Houston is batting .250 against left-handed starters with a .323 OBP. Rogers in his past four starts has an ERA of 0.74 with WHIP of 0.90. Arrighetti in his past four starts has an ERA of 10.09 with .681 slugging percentage against. Orioles are 13-10 on the road against losing teams with a +3.4 unit return. Astros 10-12 at home when lined at -100 to -150 with a -4.8-unit loss. Play Baltimore -107.
Game 11
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
This matchup pairs Dustin May, a right-hander, against Brandon Pfaadt, a right-hander. Dustin May enters with a 4.55 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 18 appearances and 18 starts, while Brandon Pfaadt owns a 4.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 16 appearances and 6 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: Dustin May carries a 3.25 FIP, which is more than one run lower than his 4.55 ERA.
Dustin May — St. Louis Cardinals
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances18
- Starts18
- ERA4.55
- WHIP1.26
- Strikeout Rate22.9%
- Walk Rate7.2%
- Ground-Ball Rate44.3%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.7
- FIP3.25
Brandon Pfaadt — Arizona Diamondbacks
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances16
- Starts6
- ERA4.70
- WHIP1.32
- Strikeout Rate17.7%
- Walk Rate7.8%
- Ground-Ball Rate49.1%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.3
The Pick
St Louis is hitting .251 on the road with a .331 slugging percentage. Arizona is batting .234 in their past 23 games with a .307 OBP. Cardinals are 17-10 on the road as an underdog of +100 to +150 with a +10.3-unit return. Diamondbacks lost three out of four at home with a -1.8-unit loss. Play St Louis +104.
Game 13
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
This matchup pairs Emmet Sheehan, a right-hander, against Ryan Weathers, a left-hander. Emmet Sheehan enters with a 4.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 17 appearances and 17 starts, while Ryan Weathers owns a 4.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 18 appearances and 18 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone.
Emmet Sheehan — Los Angeles Dodgers
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances17
- Starts17
- ERA4.81
- WHIP1.24
- Strikeout Rate26.6%
- Walk Rate7.4%
- Ground-Ball Rate33.9%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.6
Ryan Weathers — New York Yankees
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances18
- Starts18
- ERA4.15
- WHIP1.24
- Strikeout Rate26.9%
- Walk Rate6.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate44.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.5
The Pick
LA is batting .259 in their past 23 games with a .331 OBP. Yankees are hitting .208 in their past 25 games with a .266 OBP. Dodgers’ bullpen performed well on the road and NY pen has been good at home. Yankees are 9-16 in their past 25 games with a -11.6-unit loss. LA is 13-6 on the road when lined between -100 to -150 with a +4.7-unit return. Play Dodgers -109.
Game 14
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
This matchup pairs Logan Webb, a right-hander, against Bryan Woo, a right-hander. Logan Webb enters with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 16 appearances and 16 starts, while Bryan Woo owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 appearances and 18 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: Bryan Woo carries a 3.04 FIP, which is more than one run lower than his 4.23 ERA.
Logan Webb — San Francisco Giants
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances16
- Starts16
- ERA3.86
- WHIP1.16
- Strikeout Rate19.4%
- Walk Rate6.3%
- Ground-Ball Rate50.5%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.7
Bryan Woo — Seattle Mariners
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances18
- Starts18
- ERA4.23
- WHIP1.07
- Strikeout Rate24.1%
- Walk Rate4.7%
- Ground-Ball Rate37.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings0.9
- FIP3.04
The Pick
SF is batting .265 on the road with a .440 slugging percentage. Seattle is hitting .223 at home with a .309 OBP. Giants’ bullpen in the better recent form. SF is 16-20 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a +2-unit return. Seattle is 7-8 at home facing a starter that allows 0.5 home runs per start or fewer with a -2.8-unit loss. Play Giants +122.
Game 15
Washington Nationals at Athletics
This matchup pairs Zack Littell, a right-hander, against J.T. Ginn, a right-hander. Zack Littell enters with a 4.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 19 appearances and 12 starts, while J.T. Ginn owns a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 21 appearances and 18 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: Zack Littell carries a 6.08 FIP, which is more than one run higher than his 4.90 ERA.
Zack Littell — Washington Nationals
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances19
- Starts12
- ERA4.90
- WHIP1.31
- Strikeout Rate14.8%
- Walk Rate6.8%
- Ground-Ball Rate34.8%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings2.3
- FIP6.08
J.T. Ginn — Athletics
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances21
- Starts18
- ERA3.67
- WHIP1.25
- Strikeout Rate21.4%
- Walk Rate10.6%
- Ground-Ball Rate46.2%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.1
The Pick
Washington is hitting .256 on the road with a .438 slugging percentage. Athletics hit .266 at home with a .459 slugging percentage. Ginn in his past five starts has an ERA of 6.31 with .455 slugging percentage against. Both bullpen in poor 23 game and recent form. Washington is 25-20-2 to the over on the road. Athletics are 29-16 to the over at home. Play Washington and Athletics over 10.5.
Game 16
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
This matchup pairs Tarik Skubal, a left-hander, against Grayson Rodriguez, a right-hander. Tarik Skubal enters with a 3.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 13 appearances and 13 starts, while Grayson Rodriguez owns a 7.55 ERA and 1.74 WHIP through 7 appearances and 7 starts. The comparison below separates strikeout, walk, ground-ball and home-run prevention rates so bettors can evaluate the shape of each starter’s performance without reducing the matchup to ERA alone. The fielding-independent gap is notable: Grayson Rodriguez carries a 4.96 FIP, which is more than one run lower than his 7.55 ERA.
Tarik Skubal — Detroit Tigers
Left-handed pitcher
- Appearances13
- Starts13
- ERA3.09
- WHIP0.95
- Strikeout Rate30.0%
- Walk Rate3.7%
- Ground-Ball Rate46.0%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.2
Grayson Rodriguez — Los Angeles Angels
Right-handed pitcher
- Appearances7
- Starts7
- ERA7.55
- WHIP1.74
- Strikeout Rate16.4%
- Walk Rate11.0%
- Ground-Ball Rate30.8%
- Home Runs per Nine Innings1.2
- FIP4.96
The Pick
Detroit is batting .240 in their past 23 games with a .411 slugging percentage. LA in this span bat .245 with a .303 OBP. Skubal’s numbers are better on the road. Rodriguez in his five home starts has an ERA of 10.02 with .625 slugging percentage against. Tigers’ bullpen in the better 23 game and recent form. Detroit is 15-8 to the run line in their past 23 games with a +8.6-unit return. Angels are 11-15 to the run line against left-handed starters with a -9.8-unit loss. Play Tigers on run line -1.5 runs at -115.
Free MLB Picks For Today 7/18/2026
MLB Sharp Betting Card
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
Moneyline: +113
Grade: B+ (Plus-Money Pitching Edge)
Key Edges:
- Pittsburgh owns the stronger lineup split against right-handed pitching.
- Jared Jones has delivered a 2.55 ERA and 0.67 WHIP across his past four starts.
- Gavin Williams carries a 5.40 ERA over his past five outings.
- The Pirates have produced a positive return on the road against right-handed starters.
- Cleveland has struggled financially at home against right-handed starters.
Read:
Pittsburgh offers plus-money value behind the stronger recent starting-pitching profile and more productive lineup split. Jones’ current form makes the Pirates a live road underdog.
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Read free daily matchup breakdowns and track documented betting records.
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs
Play: Minnesota Twins moneyline
Moneyline: +130
Grade: B+ (Value Road Underdog)
Key Edges:
- Minnesota has hit .267 with a .450 slugging percentage over its recent sample.
- Taj Bradley owns a 2.32 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across his past five starts.
- Matthew Boyd has posted a vulnerable 5.04 ERA at home.
- The Twins have generated positive returns as road underdogs.
- Chicago has produced a negative return as a moderately priced home favorite.
Read:
The starting-pitching edge does not match the underdog price. Minnesota has enough offensive form to capitalize on Boyd’s weak home numbers and return value at +130.
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Chicago White Sox moneyline
Moneyline: +102
Grade: A- (Starter and Bullpen Gap)
Key Edges:
- Shane Bieber enters with a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through four starts.
- Bieber has combined a low strikeout rate with elevated walks and home-run damage.
- Chicago has the stronger recent batting average and slugging percentage.
- The White Sox bullpen has been in excellent recent form.
- Toronto is 2-8 as a home underdog in the referenced price range.
Read:
Chicago holds meaningful advantages in starting pitching, bullpen form and recent offense. Receiving plus money against a struggling Bieber creates one of the sharper prices on the card.
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies moneyline
Moneyline: +109
Grade: B (Home-Split Value)
Key Edges:
- Colorado is batting .273 at home with a .445 slugging percentage.
- Cincinnati has struggled against right-handed pitching.
- Rhett Lowder owns a 6.75 road ERA and 1.81 WHIP.
- Tomoyuki Sugano has produced better numbers at home.
- Colorado has won four of its past five home games.
Read:
The park factor adds volatility, but Colorado has the better offensive and starting-pitching splits for this setting. Lowder’s road problems make the Rockies a playable plus-money dog.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Run Line: -1.5 (+123)
Grade: B+ (Run-Line Value)
Key Edges:
- New York is batting only .227 against left-handed starters.
- Philadelphia has shown stronger recent offensive form.
- Sean Manaea owns a 5.18 ERA across his past five starts.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded a 2.82 ERA over his past ten starts.
- Philadelphia has been profitable on the run line as a home favorite in this range.
Read:
Luzardo provides the clear starting-pitching edge, while Philadelphia’s lineup is better positioned against a vulnerable Manaea. The plus-money run line avoids paying an inflated moneyline price.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox moneyline
Moneyline: -110
Grade: B+ (Form and Bullpen Edge)
Key Edges:
- Boston has handled left-handed pitching better than Tampa Bay.
- Ian Seymour owns a 5.07 ERA on the road.
- Patrick Sandoval allowed only one run in his return outing.
- Boston’s home bullpen carries an edge over Tampa Bay’s road relief unit.
- The Red Sox have won 17 of their past 23 games.
Read:
Boston combines the stronger situational bullpen with better overall form and a favorable opposing starter split. A near-pick’em price keeps the home side from carrying a significant market tax.
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals moneyline
Moneyline: +100
Grade: B (Home-Offense Edge)
Key Edges:
- San Diego is batting only .232 on the road.
- Kansas City owns a .263 home batting average and .428 slugging percentage.
- Griffin Canning carries a 7.40 ERA in road appearances.
- Kansas City has the steadier starting-pitching profile.
- The Padres have dropped four of their past five road games.
Read:
Kansas City has a clear home-versus-road offensive advantage and draws a struggling road starter. Even money is reasonable in a matchup where the Royals should not be positioned as the weaker side.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers under
Total: Under 8
Grade: B+ (Starting-Pitching Under)
Key Edges:
- Max Meyer owns a 1.96 ERA across his past four starts.
- Shane Drohan has recorded a 2.30 ERA over his past five starts.
- Miami’s recent offense has produced minimal power.
- Milwaukee’s recent batting average has also remained low.
- Both teams have delivered profitable under trends over their recent schedules.
Read:
Strong starting pitching and limited current offensive production support a lower-scoring game. Milwaukee’s reliable home bullpen adds another layer of protection for the under.
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves moneyline
Moneyline: -110
Grade: B- (Bullpen-Lean Favorite)
Key Edges:
- Atlanta has produced the stronger home offensive numbers.
- MacKenzie Gore owns a 5.81 road ERA.
- The Braves bullpen enters in better recent form.
- Texas has struggled on the road against teams with strong relief pitching.
- Atlanta has performed well at home against lower-scoring American League opponents.
Read:
Atlanta’s bullpen gap and Gore’s road regression support the home side. Starter uncertainty for the Braves increases variance, keeping this below the strongest moneyline plays.
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
Play: Baltimore Orioles moneyline
Moneyline: -107
Grade: A- (Starting-Pitching Mismatch)
Key Edges:
- Trevor Rogers owns a 0.74 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his past four starts.
- Spencer Arrighetti has recorded a 10.09 ERA during his past four outings.
- Opponents have slugged .681 against Arrighetti in that span.
- Baltimore has been profitable on the road against losing teams.
- Houston has generated a negative return as a modest home favorite.
Read:
The recent starting-pitching gap is substantial enough to override Houston’s slight lineup-split advantage. Baltimore is priced near even despite carrying the significantly hotter starter.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: St. Louis Cardinals moneyline
Moneyline: +104
Grade: B (Profitable Road Dog)
Key Edges:
- St. Louis is batting .251 on the road.
- Arizona has hit only .234 across its recent sample.
- Dustin May’s 3.25 FIP suggests better performance than his ERA indicates.
- Arizona has dropped three of its past four home games.
- The Cardinals are 17-10 as road underdogs in the referenced price range.
Read:
St. Louis brings a proven plus-money road profile into a matchup against an Arizona offense lacking form. May’s underlying numbers also create positive-regression potential.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
Moneyline: -109
Grade: B+ (Market-Form Edge)
Key Edges:
- Los Angeles is batting .259 across its past 23 games.
- New York is hitting only .208 over its past 25 games.
- The Yankees have gone 9-16 during that stretch.
- New York has generated a significant negative unit return during its slump.
- The Dodgers have been profitable as moderately priced road favorites.
Read:
The market is pricing these teams almost evenly despite a wide gap in current offensive form. With neither bullpen creating a major disadvantage, the Dodgers’ lineup and recent performance become the deciding edges.
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners
Play: San Francisco Giants moneyline
Moneyline: +122
Grade: B (Plus-Money Dog)
Key Edges:
- San Francisco is batting .265 on the road with a .440 slugging percentage.
- Seattle is hitting only .223 at home.
- The Giants bullpen has been in better recent form.
- Logan Webb limits home-run damage and generates a high ground-ball rate.
- Seattle has produced a negative return in the referenced home matchup profile.
Read:
San Francisco has the better offensive split and bullpen form while receiving an attractive underdog price. Webb’s contact-management profile gives the Giants a solid path to keeping this game close.
Washington Nationals vs Athletics
Play: Washington Nationals–Athletics over
Total: Over 10.5 (-108)
Grade: B+ (Bullpen-Fatigue Over)
Key Edges:
- Washington is slugging .438 on the road.
- The Athletics own a .459 slugging percentage at home.
- Zack Littell carries a 6.08 FIP and allows 2.3 home runs per nine innings.
- J.T. Ginn has posted a 6.31 ERA across his past five starts.
- Both bullpens enter with poor recent performance.
- Washington and the Athletics have produced strong road and home over trends.
Read:
The number is high, but both offenses have favorable situational splits against vulnerable pitching. Home-run risk, weak recent bullpens and two profitable over profiles justify attacking the total.
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
Play: Detroit Tigers -1.5
Run Line: -1.5 (-115)
Grade: A- (Run-Line Power Edge)
Key Edges:
- Tarik Skubal owns a 3.09 ERA and elite 0.95 WHIP.
- Skubal combines a 30.0% strikeout rate with a 3.7% walk rate.
- Grayson Rodriguez has a 10.02 ERA across five home starts.
- Opponents have slugged .625 against Rodriguez at home.
- Detroit owns the stronger recent bullpen.
- The Tigers are 15-8 on the run line over their past 23 games.
Read:
Detroit has dominant advantages in starting pitching, bullpen quality and recent run-line performance. Skubal against Rodriguez’s severe home struggles creates legitimate multi-run separation potential.
