MLB Games, Odds and Starting Pitchers for July 19, 2026
The Sunday schedule features 15 games in this preview, with the listed starting or bulk pitchers, market odds, television coverage and key pitching indicators for every matchup. Game 16 is not included because lineups and pitchers available are uncertain.
Betting markets can move throughout the day. Visit Tony’s Picks for updated numbers before placing a wager.
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox -117
Toronto Blue Jays -103
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+141)
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-171)
Over -115
Under -105
Sean Burke
Right-hander
Trey Yesavage
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Sean Burke is a right-hander with 15 starts in 19 appearances. He enters with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 26.4%, his walk rate is 7.6%, his ground-ball rate is 35.5%, and he has allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Trey Yesavage is a right-hander with 14 starts in 14 appearances. He carries a 3.72 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 22.2%, his walk rate is 12.5%, his ground-ball rate is 33%, and he has surrendered 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
Sean Burke carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Sean Burke owns the higher ground-ball rate. Trey Yesavage has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
White Sox are hitting .244 in their past 24 games with a .411 slugging percentage. Blue Jays in their past 23 games hit .221 with a .281 OBP. Burke in his past four starts has an ERA of 1.82 with WHIP of 1.01. Yesavage at home carries an ERA of 4.14. White Sox bullpen in the better 24 game and recent form. Toronto is 32-42 against right-handed starters with a -19.5 unit loss. Play White Sox -109.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Los Angeles Dodgers +102
New York Yankees -112
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+159)
New York Yankees +1.5 (-182)
Over -105
Under -115
Emmet Sheehan
Right-hander
Ryan Weathers
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Emmet Sheehan is a right-hander with 17 starts in 17 appearances. He enters with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 26.6%, his walk rate is 7.4%, his ground-ball rate is 33.9%, and he has allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Ryan Weathers is a left-hander with 18 starts in 18 appearances. He carries a 4.15 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 26.9%, his walk rate is 6.6%, his ground-ball rate is 44.2%, and he has surrendered 1.5 home runs per nine innings.
Ryan Weathers carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Ryan Weathers owns the higher ground-ball rate. Ryan Weathers has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
LA is batting .259 in their past 23 games with a .331 OBP. Yankees are hitting .208 in their past 25 games with a .266 OBP. Dodgers’ bullpen performed well on the road and NY pen has been good at home. Yankees are 9-16 in their past 25 games with a -11.6-unit loss. LA is 13-6 on the road when lined between -100 to -150 with a +4.7-unit return. Play Dodgers -109.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays +103
Boston Red Sox -125
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-194)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+159)
Over -117
Under -103
Shane McClanahan
Left-hander
Sonny Gray
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Shane McClanahan is a left-hander with 17 starts in 17 appearances. He enters with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 23.2%, his walk rate is 7.9%, his ground-ball rate is 44.4%, and he has allowed 0.6 home runs per nine innings.
Sonny Gray is a right-hander with 17 starts in 17 appearances. He carries a 2.54 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 22.3%, his walk rate is 6.3%, his ground-ball rate is 47.6%, and he has surrendered 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
Sonny Gray carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Sonny Gray owns the higher ground-ball rate. Shane McClanahan has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Rays are hitting .186 in their past four games with a .255 OBP. Red Sox in this period hit .256 with a .504 slugging percentage. McClanahan on the road has an ERA of 3.77 with WHIP of 1.30. Gray, in his past four starts carries an ERA of 1.03 with WHIP of 0.87. Tampa Bay bullpen on the road has an ERA of 4.66 with WHIP of 1.40. Red Sox pen has performed well at home. They are 19-5 in their past 24 games with a +12.7-unit return. Rays are 5-9 on the road against the division with a -4-unit loss. Play Red Sox -116.
Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
Texas Rangers +113
Atlanta Braves -117
Nathan Eovaldi
Right-hander
Grant Holmes
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Nathan Eovaldi is a right-hander with 18 starts in 18 appearances. He enters with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 25.9%, his walk rate is 5.6%, his ground-ball rate is 49.5%, and he has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings.
Grant Holmes is a right-hander with 17 starts in 18 appearances. He carries a 3.61 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 20.2%, his walk rate is 10.4%, his ground-ball rate is 41.2%, and he has surrendered 1.5 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.03, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Nathan Eovaldi carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Nathan Eovaldi owns the higher ground-ball rate. Grant Holmes has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Texas is hitting .237 against right-handed starters with a .316 OBP. Braves bat .254 against right-handed starters with a .413 slugging percentage. Holmes, in his past four appearances, has an ERA of 0.96 with WHIP of 1.01. Braves bullpen in the better recent and past 24 game form. Atlanta is 18-10 at home against right-handed starters with a +4.3-unit return. Rangers are 5-9 on the road facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower with a -2.9-unit loss. Play Braves +105.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -130
Philadelphia Phillies +108
New York Mets -1.5 (+119)
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-143)
Over -102
Under -118
Nolan McLean
Right-hander
Alan Rangel
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Nolan McLean is a right-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He enters with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 27.9%, his walk rate is 8.7%, his ground-ball rate is 47.8%, and he has allowed 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
Alan Rangel is a right-hander with 2 starts in 5 appearances. He carries a 4.19 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 25.9%, his walk rate is 10.6%, his ground-ball rate is 35.3%, and he has surrendered 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Nolan McLean carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Nolan McLean owns the higher ground-ball rate. Nolan McLean has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
NY is hitting .231 in their past 24 games with a .312 OBP. Phillies hit .258 in their past 24 games with a .436 slugging percentage. Mets bullpen over this period has an ERA of 6.32 with WHIP of 1.55 losing 17 of those games. Philadelphia is 15-9 in their past 24 games with a +3.8-unit return. Play Phillies +113.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians
Pittsburgh Pirates -104
Cleveland Guardians -106
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+155)
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-177)
Over -120
Under +100
Paul Skenes
Right-hander
Joey Cantillo
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Paul Skenes is a right-hander with 20 starts in 20 appearances. He enters with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 29.5%, his walk rate is 5.5%, his ground-ball rate is 40.7%, and he has allowed 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
Joey Cantillo is a left-hander with 20 starts in 20 appearances. He carries a 3.56 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 24.4%, his walk rate is 11.4%, his ground-ball rate is 43.9%, and he has surrendered 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Paul Skenes carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Joey Cantillo owns the higher ground-ball rate. Paul Skenes has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Pittsburgh is batting .288 in their past 23 games with a .490 slugging percentage. Guardians hit .217 against right-handed starters with a .294 OBP. Pirates are 10-4 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 with a +4.9-unit return. Guardians are 12-15 at home against right-handed starters with a -6.1-unit loss. Play Pittsburgh -125.
San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres +104
Kansas City Royals -125
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-175)
Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+144)
Over -115
Under -105
German Marquez
Right-hander
Noah Cameron
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
German Marquez is a right-hander with 8 starts in 9 appearances. He enters with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 15.5%, his walk rate is 11%, his ground-ball rate is 35.1%, and he has allowed 2.2 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 6.38, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Noah Cameron is a left-hander with 18 starts in 18 appearances. He carries a 4.89 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 21.5%, his walk rate is 7.6%, his ground-ball rate is 34.9%, and he has surrendered 1.2 home runs per nine innings.
Noah Cameron carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while German Marquez owns the higher ground-ball rate. Noah Cameron has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
San Diego is batting .231 on the road with a .302 OBP. KC at home hit .263 with a .430 slugging percentage. KC bullpen has performed better at home. San Diego has lost five of six on the road with a -3.3-unit loss. Royals are 5-2 at home facing an NL team with a .400 or lower slugging percentage with a +4.2-unit return. Play KC -125.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins +109
Milwaukee Brewers -131
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-198)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+162)
Over -115
Under -105
Eury Perez
Right-hander
Robert Gasser
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Eury Perez is a right-hander with 16 starts in 16 appearances. He enters with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 27.2%, his walk rate is 9.7%, his ground-ball rate is 37.1%, and he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Robert Gasser is a left-hander with 9 starts in 9 appearances. He carries a 5.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 21.4%, his walk rate is 7%, his ground-ball rate is 26.1%, and he has surrendered 1.9 home runs per nine innings.
Eury Perez carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Eury Perez owns the higher ground-ball rate. Eury Perez has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Miami is batting .240 against left-handed starters with a .316 OBP. Brewers hitting .255 against right-handed starters with a .339 OBP. Perez numbers are worse on the road. Gasser’s numbers are better at home. Marlins bullpen on the road has an ERA of 4.94. Brewers’ bullpen has performed well at home. Miami is 10-16 against left-handed starters with a -6.8 unit loss. Brewers are 42-27 against right-handed starters with a +5.1-unit return. Play Milwaukee -126.
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles +100
Houston Astros -120
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+162)
Houston Astros +1.5 (-198)
Over -111
Under -109
Kyle Bradish
Right-hander
Hunter Brown
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Kyle Bradish is a right-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He enters with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 23.3%, his walk rate is 11%, his ground-ball rate is 48.8%, and he has allowed 1 home runs per nine innings.
Hunter Brown is a right-hander with 7 starts in 7 appearances. He carries a 3.57 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 25.5%, his walk rate is 14.4%, his ground-ball rate is 51.1%, and he has surrendered 1.3 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.76, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Kyle Bradish carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Hunter Brown owns the higher ground-ball rate. Kyle Bradish has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Baltimore is batting .224 on the road with a .373 slugging percentage. Astros hit .231 at home with a .307 OBP. Young in his past nine starts has an ERA of 2.96. Brown in his past four starts has an ERA of 5.68. Orioles’ bullpen in great recent and 23 game form. Orioles are 14-10 on the road against losing teams with a +4.5-unit return. Houston is 11-14 as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -7.7-unit loss. Play Baltimore +104.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
Minnesota Twins +142
Chicago Cubs -172
Zebby Matthews
Right-hander
Shota Imanaga
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Zebby Matthews is a right-hander with 11 starts in 11 appearances. He enters with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 19.6%, his walk rate is 6.5%, his ground-ball rate is 39.2%, and he has allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings.
Shota Imanaga is a left-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He carries a 4.17 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 24%, his walk rate is 6.2%, his ground-ball rate is 37.3%, and he has surrendered 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Shota Imanaga carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Zebby Matthews owns the higher ground-ball rate. Shota Imanaga has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Minnesota is hitting .261 in their past 23 games with a .438 slugging percentage. Cubs at home hit .255 with a .424 slugging percentage. Matthews on the road has an ERA of 6.17. Imanaga’s numbers are worse on the road. Both bullpens in poor 23 game form. Minnesota is 30-16 to the over on the road. Cubs are 13-10 to the over in their past 23 games. Play Twins and Cubs over 7.5.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati Reds -141
Colorado Rockies +117
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+104)
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-126)
Over -112
Under -108
Hunter Greene
Right-hander
Ryan Feltner
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Hunter Greene is a right-hander with 2 starts in 2 appearances. He enters with a 6.97 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 42.2%, his walk rate is 11.1%, his ground-ball rate is 19%, and he has allowed 0.9 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 2.12, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Ryan Feltner is a right-hander with 13 starts in 13 appearances. He carries a 4.55 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 17.6%, his walk rate is 9%, his ground-ball rate is 44.3%, and he has surrendered 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Hunter Greene carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Ryan Feltner owns the higher ground-ball rate. Hunter Greene has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Reds are hitting .239 in their past 24 games with a .304 OBP. Rockies in their past 25 games hit .267 with a .451 slugging percentage. Feltner’s numbers are better at home. Reds lost 15 of 24 with a -4.8-unit loss. Rockies are 19-15 as home underdog of +100 to +150 with a +9.3-unit return. Play Colorado +127.
Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics
Washington Nationals -111
Oakland Athletics +101
Washington Nationals +1.5 (-200)
Oakland Athletics -1.5 (+174)
Over -123
Under +103
Foster Griffin
Left-hander
Jacob Lopez
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Foster Griffin is a left-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He enters with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 24.5%, his walk rate is 5.8%, his ground-ball rate is 44.5%, and he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.02, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Jacob Lopez is a left-hander with 11 starts in 14 appearances. He carries a 6.83 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 16.4%, his walk rate is 13%, his ground-ball rate is 31.7%, and he has surrendered 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Foster Griffin carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Foster Griffin owns the higher ground-ball rate. Foster Griffin has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
Nationals are hitting .270 in their past 23 games with a .501 slugging percentage. Athletics hit .266 at home with a .459 slugging percentage. Lopez at home has an ERA of 8.31 with WHIP of 1.75. Both bullpens are in poor recent and 23 game form. Washington is 25-20-2 to the over on the road. Athletics are 29-16-2 to the over at home. Play Nationals and Athletics over 10.5.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers -191
Los Angeles Angels +172
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-118)
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-102)
Over -115
Under -105
Casey Mize
Right-hander
Ryan Johnson
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Casey Mize is a right-hander with 14 starts in 14 appearances. He enters with a 2.79 ERA and a 1 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 25.3%, his walk rate is 5.9%, his ground-ball rate is 34.3%, and he has allowed 0.6 home runs per nine innings.
Ryan Johnson is a right-hander with 6 starts in 9 appearances. He carries a 6.75 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 16.8%, his walk rate is 8.7%, his ground-ball rate is 38.5%, and he has surrendered 2.4 home runs per nine innings.
Casey Mize carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Ryan Johnson owns the higher ground-ball rate. Casey Mize has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
LA is hitting .226 at home with an OBP of .301. Tigers in their past 23 games hit .240 with a .411 slugging percentage. Tigers’ bullpen is in the better recent and 23 game form. Detroit is 15-8 in their past 23 games with a +5.9-unit return. Angels are 8-14 in their past 22 games with a -5.1-unit loss. Play Tigers -147.
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
San Francisco Giants +137
Seattle Mariners -151
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-173)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+152)
Over -117
Under -103
Robbie Ray
Left-hander
Logan Gilbert
Right-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Robbie Ray is a left-hander with 18 starts in 19 appearances. He enters with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 20.3%, his walk rate is 11.7%, his ground-ball rate is 32.8%, and he has allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.7, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Logan Gilbert is a right-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He carries a 3.32 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 26.5%, his walk rate is 5.3%, his ground-ball rate is 35.1%, and he has surrendered 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Logan Gilbert carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Logan Gilbert owns the higher ground-ball rate. Logan Gilbert has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
SF is hitting .264 on the road with a .438 slugging percentage. Seattle is hitting .221 at home with a.308 OBP. Ray in his past four starts has an ERA of 1.33 with WHIP of 1.07. Gilbert at home has an ERA of 4.11. Giants’ bullpen in better recent form. SF is 5-1 as a road underdog of +150 to +200 with a +7.4-unit return. Seattle is 5-9 at home against lefty starters with a -6.5-unit loss. Play Giants +154.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals +100
Arizona Diamondbacks -120
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+157)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-191)
Over -108
Under -112
Andre Pallante
Right-hander
Eduardo Rodriguez
Left-hander
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
Andre Pallante is a right-hander with 18 starts in 18 appearances. He enters with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 17%, his walk rate is 6.9%, his ground-ball rate is 55.1%, and he has allowed 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a left-hander with 19 starts in 19 appearances. He carries a 2.29 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 17.1%, his walk rate is 8.4%, his ground-ball rate is 40.1%, and he has surrendered 0.9 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.1, which is at least one run removed from his ERA.
Andre Pallante carries the stronger strikeout-minus-walk profile into this matchup, while Andre Pallante owns the higher ground-ball rate. Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed fewer home runs per nine innings, an important separator when evaluating traffic, contact quality and the risk of one swing changing the game.
The Pick
St Louis is batting .226 in their past 24 games with a .294 OBP. Diamondbacks hitting .235 in their past 24 games with a .388 slugging percentage. Pallante in his past four starts has an ERA of 4.63 with WHIP of 1.45. Rodriguez in his past four starts carries an ERA of 1.75 with WHIP of 0.93. Arizona is 18-11 as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a +3.2 unit return. Play Arizona -115.
MLB Sharp Betting Card
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Chicago White Sox Moneyline
Moneyline: -109
Grade: B+ (Pitching Form Edge)
Key Edges:
- Sean Burke owns the stronger strikeout-to-walk profile
- Burke has posted a 1.82 ERA across his past four starts
- Chicago carries the better recent bullpen form
- Toronto’s lineup has produced a weak .281 OBP recently
- The Blue Jays have been costly against right-handed starters
Read:
Chicago has the starting pitching edge and the more dependable bullpen entering the matchup. Toronto’s poor recent offensive form makes the near-even moneyline playable.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline
Moneyline: -109
Grade: B+ (Road Value)
Key Edges:
- Los Angeles is batting .259 over its recent sample
- The Dodgers have maintained a solid .331 recent OBP
- New York’s lineup has fallen to a .208 batting average
- The Yankees have lost significant units during their recent slide
- Los Angeles has performed well in this road price range
Read:
The Dodgers have the stronger offensive form while the Yankees continue to struggle generating baserunners. Los Angeles offers value at a manageable road moneyline.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Moneyline: -116
Grade: A- (Form and Bullpen Edge)
Key Edges:
- Boston has won 19 of its past 24 games
- The Red Sox are slugging .504 over their recent stretch
- Sonny Gray owns a 1.03 ERA across his past four starts
- Tampa Bay’s road bullpen has a 4.66 ERA
- The Rays are batting only .186 over their past four games
Read:
Boston holds advantages in offensive form, starting pitching and bullpen reliability. The modest moneyline does not fully reflect the gap between the teams’ current trajectories.
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves Moneyline
Moneyline: +105
Grade: B+ (Home Plus-Money Value)
Key Edges:
- Atlanta owns the stronger lineup split against right-handed pitching
- Grant Holmes has recorded a 0.96 ERA in his past four appearances
- The Braves carry the better recent bullpen form
- Atlanta has been profitable at home against right-handed starters
- The Rangers have struggled in this specific road bullpen matchup
Read:
Atlanta combines a favorable lineup split with home-field and bullpen advantages. Getting the Braves at plus money creates an attractive price on the stronger situational side.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Moneyline: +113
Grade: B+ (Bullpen Fade)
Key Edges:
- Philadelphia is batting .258 over its past 24 games
- The Phillies have generated a strong .436 slugging percentage
- New York’s bullpen owns a 6.32 ERA over the recent sample
- The Mets have lost 17 games during that bullpen stretch
- Philadelphia has produced a profitable 15-9 recent record
Read:
The starting pitching matchup favors New York, but the bullpen gap creates value on Philadelphia. The Phillies’ stronger offensive form makes the home underdog price worth taking.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Moneyline: -125
Grade: A- (Starting Pitching Edge)
Key Edges:
- Paul Skenes has the superior strikeout-to-walk profile
- Skenes carries an elite 1.02 WHIP
- Pittsburgh is batting .288 across its past 23 games
- Cleveland is hitting only .217 against right-handed starters
- The Pirates have been profitable as a short road favorite
Read:
Pittsburgh owns the clear starting pitching edge and enters with substantially better offensive form. Cleveland’s weak production against right-handers supports laying the short road price.
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals Moneyline
Moneyline: -125
Grade: B (Home-Offense Edge)
Key Edges:
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- Kansas City is batting .263 at home
- The Royals own a productive .430 home slugging percentage
- Noah Cameron has the stronger strikeout-to-walk profile
- Kansas City’s bullpen has performed better at home
- San Diego has lost five of its past six road games
Read:
Kansas City’s home offense and bullpen provide the primary separation in a matchup featuring vulnerable starters. San Diego’s recent road struggles make the Royals the more trustworthy side.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Moneyline: -126
Grade: B+ (Bullpen and Split Edge)
Key Edges:
- Milwaukee is batting .255 against right-handed pitching
- The Brewers own a solid .339 OBP in that split
- Robert Gasser has produced better numbers at home
- Miami’s road bullpen carries a 4.94 ERA
- Milwaukee has been profitable against right-handed starters
Read:
Milwaukee’s lineup split and home bullpen give the Brewers the better full-game profile. Miami’s struggles against left-handed starters further support the short favorite.
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
Play: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
Moneyline: +104
Grade: B+ (Plus-Money Dog)
Key Edges:
- Houston starter Hunter Brown has a 5.68 ERA over his past four starts
- Brown’s 14.4% walk rate creates traffic risk
- Baltimore’s bullpen is in strong recent form
- The Orioles have been profitable against losing teams on the road
- Houston has struggled as a home favorite of -110 or higher
Read:
Baltimore has the bullpen advantage and faces a starter showing declining recent form. The Orioles are a live plus-money dog against an overpriced Houston home side.
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs
Play: Minnesota Twins–Chicago Cubs Over
Total: Over 7.5
Grade: B+ (Pitching Regression Over)
Key Edges:
- Minnesota is slugging .438 over its past 23 games
- Chicago owns a .424 slugging percentage at home
- Zebby Matthews has a 6.17 road ERA
- Both bullpens have been in poor recent form
- Minnesota is 30-16 to the over on the road
Read:
Both offenses have enough power to pressure vulnerable starting and relief pitching. The 7.5 total provides value in a matchup with multiple paths to late scoring.
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies Moneyline
Moneyline: +127
Grade: B (Home Underdog Value)
Key Edges:
- Colorado is batting .267 over its past 25 games
- The Rockies own a strong .451 recent slugging percentage
- Ryan Feltner has produced better numbers at home
- Cincinnati has lost 15 of its past 24 games
- Colorado has been highly profitable as a moderate home underdog
Read:
Colorado’s offensive form and proven profitability in this price range create legitimate underdog value. Cincinnati’s extended losing stretch makes the favorite difficult to trust at Coors Field.
Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics
Play: Washington Nationals–Oakland Athletics Over
Total: Over 10.5
Grade: A- (Bullpen-Fatigue Over)
Key Edges:
- Washington is batting .270 over its past 23 games
- The Nationals have posted a .501 recent slugging percentage
- Oakland is slugging .459 at home
- Jacob Lopez owns an 8.31 home ERA
- Both bullpens enter in poor recent form
- Both teams have produced strong road or home over records
Read:
Productive offenses face vulnerable starting and relief pitching in a favorable scoring environment. Even at 10.5, the matchup has sufficient offensive and bullpen-fatigue upside to support the over.
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
Play: Detroit Tigers Moneyline
Moneyline: -147
Grade: A- (Starting Pitching Mismatch)
Key Edges:
- Casey Mize carries a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP
- Mize has allowed only 0.6 home runs per nine innings
- Ryan Johnson owns a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP
- The Angels are hitting only .226 at home
- Detroit has the stronger recent bullpen form
Read:
Detroit holds a major starting pitching advantage and backs it with the better bullpen. The Tigers are the clear side despite a moneyline that requires laying moderate juice.
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners
Play: San Francisco Giants Moneyline
Moneyline: +154
Grade: B+ (High-Upside Dog)
Key Edges:
- San Francisco is batting .264 on the road
- The Giants own a .438 road slugging percentage
- Robbie Ray has a 1.33 ERA over his past four starts
- Seattle is hitting only .221 at home
- The Mariners have struggled at home against left-handed starters
- San Francisco has been profitable as a sizable road underdog
Read:
San Francisco’s road offense and Robbie Ray’s recent form make the Giants dangerous at a large price. Seattle’s weak home production leaves the favorite vulnerable to an upset.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
Moneyline: -115
Grade: B+ (Starting Pitching Form)
Key Edges:
- Eduardo Rodriguez has a 1.75 ERA over his past four starts
- Rodriguez owns a 0.93 WHIP during that stretch
- St. Louis is batting only .226 over its past 24 games
- The Cardinals have produced a weak .294 recent OBP
- Arizona has been profitable as a home favorite
Read:
Arizona owns the stronger recent starting pitching form against a struggling Cardinals lineup. The short home moneyline offers a fair price on the Diamondbacks’ matchup advantage.
