Millz Young is back in the MMA Locker Room on the Tony’s Picks channel with a full card breakdown for UFC Fight Night 281 in Oklahoma City, headlined by Dricus du Plessis against Kamaru Usman. As always, the angle here is not simply who wins. Millz handicaps this card the way the sharp MMA markets actually trade it: does the fight finish, or does it go the distance?
That approach earned some bragging rights coming in. Millz went a perfect 14-0 on his last card, correctly calling every single fight as either a finish or a decision. That is a genuinely difficult thing to do across a full slate, and it sets a high bar for this one. Below is every read from the video with the reasoning behind it.
One note on methodology: StatSharp does not cover UFC, so unlike the WNBA and MLB breakdowns on this site, these reads come from Millz’s own film study, the posted market prices, and fighter history rather than a statistical tip sheet.
Damon Anderson vs. Ezra Elliott: Grappler Against Grappler
The card opens with a matchup thrown together on short notice, and Millz sees a competitive one. Anderson is a slight favorite at -125, with the over 1.5 rounds priced at -154. This is a grappler-versus-grappler pairing, which historically drags fights into deeper water rather than producing early finishes.
His read splits the difference: he does not think this one reaches the scorecards, but he does expect it to clear the first round and a half. That is a specific and defensible position. Two ground specialists tend to neutralize each other early, then a gap opens once fatigue sets in. He also flagged the underdog as live at that price.
Dion Barbosa vs. Ana Malasano: The Parlay Anchor
Barbosa is one of the biggest favorites on the card at -625, with the under 2.5 rounds at -150. Millz made a sharp observation here about how these markets are priced: women’s fights are almost always juiced toward the distance, so when the under is the chalk instead, that is the market telling you something.
The reason is Malasano’s situation. She is taking this on short notice coming off a submission loss in her Ultimate Fighter run. Millz expects Barbosa to establish the grappling immediately and find the submission in round one or two. He called Barbosa the biggest parlay piece of the week and believes she covers the steep price.
The play: under 2.5 rounds, with the fight not reaching the judges.
Alvin Hines vs. RJ Harris: Upset Alert at Heavyweight
Hines is a -135 favorite returning from a year-long suspension after testing positive for banned substances. The under 1.5 rounds sits at +140, with the over at -180. Millz sees two heavyweights who either find a third-round finish or grind to a decision.
This is where he goes off the board. He concedes Hines is likely the better all-around fighter, but he is taking RJ Harris as the underdog, citing Harris’s knockout power and a frame reportedly over six-foot-five. He is calling it a live upset spot with a third-round finish from either side as the likeliest ending.
Stewart Nicoll vs. Aiden Cora: The Card’s Biggest Favorite
Cora is the heaviest chalk on the slate, with the over 1.5 rounds at -180 and the under at +140. Millz’s read here is simple and rooted in a pattern: Nicoll tends to get finished, and it usually happens in the second or third round.
He expects the same script. Rather than paying the prohibitive moneyline, his recommendation is to cut the price down by taking Cora to win inside the distance. He does not see this one reaching the scorecards.
Levi Rodriguez vs. Felipe Franco: A Fight He Will Not Touch
Rodriguez is -150 with Franco at +130. The over 1.5 rounds sits at -105 and the under at -125. Millz took the over at that price and leans toward the favorite, but he was unusually blunt about his conviction level: he does not trust either man with his money.
The context explains the hesitation. Rodriguez has served a PED suspension of his own, which Millz noted gives this card a certain recurring theme. Franco moved up in weight last time out and appears to be back at his original class. Millz expects some public money on the dog shot but is not joining it.
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The play, such as it is: over 1.5 rounds, at a small stake.
JPL vs. Sungyong Ko: Back-and-Forth Becomes Over 2.5
Ko is a -190 favorite with the over 2.5 rounds at -160 and the under at +130. Millz described going back and forth on this one repeatedly, which usually points toward the total rather than a side.
His read on the styles is detailed. Ko has been nicknamed the Asian Mike Tyson, but Millz was clear that the label is misleading. Ko does not finish with strikes; he is a relentless grappler who wins minutes by taking opponents down and holding position. JPL is a jiu-jitsu fighter who has been winning in the UFC, though against modest competition.
He can see Ko isolating JPL and controlling him without doing enough damage to end it, which is precisely the profile of a decision. He likes the dog as live at the price and takes the over 2.5 rounds.
Austin Bashi vs. Jose Delgado: Prospect vs. Prospect
Millz was direct about this one being the best fight on the card and about how to play it. The over 1.5 rounds at -210 is the way in, and he said so twice.
The stylistic fork is clean. If Bashi lands his takedowns and implements his grappling, he isolates Delgado and controls the fight. If Delgado stuffs those attempts and keeps it standing, he out-strikes Bashi and could find the knockout. Millz likes Bashi, calling him one of the more improved young prospects on the roster, and expects this to reach the distance.
Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline: The Distance Play
Kline is a big favorite at -480 with the over 2.5 rounds juiced to -370. Millz returned to his market thesis here: women’s fights get priced toward the distance, and in this case he agrees with the market rather than fighting it.
He sees Kline as the more physical fighter with the longer reach and better tools, capable of out-striking Ricci if it stays standing and able to add wrestling if it does not. He also allowed that Ricci can steal a round with takedowns and that judges have historically favored her, floating Ricci +3.5 as a live alternative.
The play: the fight goes to the scorecards.
Tommy McMillan vs. Bruno Montes: Trusting the Gut
McMillan opened around -105 and has been bet up to -160, with Montes at +140 and the over 1.5 rounds at -125. Millz flagged the line move himself in real time, noting the money that came in.
He described going back and forth on this matchup and ultimately said he was sticking with his gut. He calls McMillan one of the up-and-coming prospects on the roster. This was the least-detailed read of the card, and it is fair to treat it as a lower-confidence spot accordingly.
Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez: The Violence Play
Hooper is a -380 favorite with Ramirez coming back around +300. The over 1.5 rounds sits at -140 and the under at +110. Millz’s first instinct was the over, and then he thought it through and reversed himself entirely.
His conclusion was blunt: this is a Chase Hooper fight, and Hooper fights end. He questioned Hooper’s physicality and durability and decided to play the violence, taking the under at plus money. He noted that the under 1.5 should hit but that the cleaner expression of the read is simply the fight not going the distance.
The play: fight does not reach the scorecards, with the under 1.5 at +110 as the value version.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Jared Cannonier
Duncan is -360 with the over 2.5 rounds at -160. Millz sees a stylistic mirror in some ways, with both men comfortable switching stances, but believes Duncan is simply far quicker than Cannonier at this stage.
He was candid about the tension in his own read. Cannonier is a durable gatekeeper, and Duncan does pick his spots rather than hunting recklessly, which points the three-rounder toward the distance. He takes the over 2.5 and expects either a late-third finish or a decision.
He also volunteered that Cannonier as an underdog has been his single most profitable UFC bet historically, twice over, which he admitted made the dog tempting. He still landed on Duncan, comparing him to a lesser version of prime Jon Jones.
Main Event: Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman
Du Plessis is -230 with Usman at +190, and the over 3.5 rounds is priced at -200 against the under at +150. Millz gave the Usman argument its due before dismissing it: any time you can get a fighter of Usman’s pedigree at plus money, you are obligated to look hard at it.
But he landed firmly on du Plessis. His case is that Usman is moving up in weight and du Plessis has been finishing everyone he faces, having taken only one defeat. He sees du Plessis as bigger and more physical, capable of stuffing takedowns and potentially finding a late finish.
The play: du Plessis to win, with a real chance the fight ends inside the distance rather than reaching the judges.
UFC Fight Night 281 Card Summary
The through-line on this card is that Millz is leaning toward finishes in the spots where the market is already there, and toward the distance in the fights the public expects to end early. That contrarian discipline is what produced the 14-0 card last time out.
The strongest reads by his own framing: Barbosa under 2.5 as the parlay anchor, Cora inside the distance, Chase Hooper’s fight not going the distance at plus money, and du Plessis in the main event. The dog shots he flagged as live are RJ Harris at heavyweight and JPL against Ko.
The ones he told you not to trust: Rodriguez against Franco, where he does not want either fighter, and the McMillan spot, which he played on instinct rather than analysis. Sizing should reflect that honesty.
As always, these are the free reads. Millz’s exclusive plays and premium card are posted separately for members, and he asked viewers to drop their own main-event and best-underdog picks in the comments.
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