International Fight Week has arrived, and Millz Young from the MMA Locker Room is back at Tony’s Picks with a complete card breakdown for UFC 329. This is the Met Gala of mixed martial arts, headlined by a blockbuster rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. Millz runs the whole lineup from the opening bout to the main event, handing out sides, method reads, and total-round leans on every fight.
Why This Card Matters
International Fight Week is the sport’s marquee celebration, and the UFC routinely stacks these cards top to bottom. That depth is a gift for bettors, but it is also a trap. With this many fights, it is easy to overextend and spread a bankroll too thin across bouts that are essentially coin flips. Millz treats the night as a menu, picking his spots rather than forcing action on every single fight.
The McGregor storyline naturally sucks up all the oxygen, yet Millz argues the real edges live deeper on the card. Short-notice replacements, mispriced favorites, and method-of-victory props are where a disciplined bettor can find value the casual crowd overlooks. His full breakdown is built to surface those angles, not just to hype the headliner everyone already plans to watch.
Main Event: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
The headliner is the story everyone is talking about. Max Holloway comes in as the betting favorite, hovering around -220 to -225, while Conor McGregor sits as a live underdog near +185 after a layoff that has stretched close to five years. This is a rematch of a fight McGregor won earlier in their careers, and that history is exactly why the line has stayed interesting.
Millz leans toward Holloway and the chalk here, and the reasoning is straightforward. McGregor has barely competed in half a decade, and rust at the highest level is difficult to overcome against a volume machine like Holloway. The over 2.5 rounds sits near a pick, and Millz likes the fight to reach the championship rounds where something dramatic could unfold late.
That said, Millz is quick to remind everyone that McGregor is McGregor. The Irishman only needs one clean left hand to flip the entire fight, so this is not a spot to load up your bankroll. His advice is simple and worth repeating: never put all your money on a main event, no matter how confident the read feels.
Featured Bouts to Watch
Gable Stevenson makes another appearance as one of the largest favorites on the entire card, listed around -2800 against Alicia Ellison. The Olympic gold medalist has been steamrolling opponents early, and the under 1.5 rounds is priced accordingly. Millz zigs slightly here, backing Stevenson to win by submission at a juicy plus-money number rather than the obvious knockout.
Robert Whittaker’s move up to light heavyweight against Nikita Krylov is another fight Millz circled. Whittaker’s line has crept down to roughly -130, and Millz likes his class and countering ability at that reduced price. He is chasing violence in this one, favoring the fight to end inside the distance given Krylov’s aggressive, kick-heavy blitzing style leaves openings.
In the bantamweight rematch, Cory Sandhagen faces Mario Bautista, and Millz sees stylistically similar fighters who tend to produce action. He leans Sandhagen to get it done and likes the over 2.5 rounds to cash. Nearby on the card, Millz is intrigued by Kai Kamaka as a value dog against Luke Riley, expecting that bout to go the distance.
Prelim Value and Method Plays
Millz sprinkled a few method-of-victory ideas throughout the undercard. He is parlaying a heavy bantamweight favorite to win by second-round knockout, drawn to the matchup because the underdog has shown a suspect chin against fellow strikers. Cody Garbrandt’s fast hands make it a live scrap, but Millz is siding with the favorite and the finish.
Paddy Pimblett against Benoit Saint-Denis is another fight Millz expects to end early. He sees deficiencies in the striking on both sides, but trusts that the promotion would not book Pimblett here without confidence in his ability to win. Millz gives a slight edge to Pimblett’s hands and likes the fight not to reach the scorecards.
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Brandon Royval versus his young Cage Warriors-bred opponent rounds out the fights Millz highlighted. Royval sits as an underdog despite one of the most entertaining, scramble-heavy styles in the division. Millz ultimately leans toward the technical, accurate striker on the other side but respects anyone backing Royval’s live-dog price, and he likes the over 2.5 rounds.
More Prelim Breakdowns
The card opens with a short-notice flyweight scrap where Cody Durden steps in as a sizable underdog against a slower-starting favorite. Millz thinks Durden can steal the opening round with pressure and volume, but he has shown a habit of fading and getting finished in the later frames. That read pushes Millz toward the over 1.5 rounds, with a lean toward the favorite as the side if the price were friendlier.
Another prelim features two heavy-handed strikers where Millz simply wants the finish. He is on the under 1.5 rounds, expecting an early ending from a fighter who racks up first-round stoppages. When neither man is a pure technician, Millz trusts chaos and violence to arrive quickly, and the total is the cleanest way to play it.
Farkhad Sharipov, a steep favorite taking a bout on short notice, draws a game opponent up from a smaller promotion. Millz respects the underdog’s power but not his level of competition, siding with the favorite and the over 2.5 rounds as the decision-friendly path. He also flagged a kickboxer-versus-kickboxer clash where he simply wants the fight to not go the distance.
In the women’s bout, Millz took a creative angle, floating the underdog by submission or the favorite by knockout as a value method play while leaning to the over 2.5. And in a coin-flip lightweight tilt featuring King Green, Millz keeps it simple once more: take the under and take the violence, trusting the finish over trying to call a razor-thin winner.
The Betting Angle
The recurring theme across Millz’s UFC 329 card is chasing violence and hunting value at inflated prices. Several favorites on this card are priced steeply enough that Millz would rather find creative method plays, live underdogs, and total-round leans than simply lay heavy chalk. That approach is what separates a full-card breakdown from just betting the biggest names.
International Fight Week always delivers chaos, and a stacked lineup like this one rewards bettors who spread their risk instead of piling everything onto the marquee matchup. Millz emphasizes discipline: build small parlays, take shots on method props, and keep individual stakes reasonable across a card this deep.
Final Prediction
For his headline read, Millz Young sides with Max Holloway to handle a long-inactive Conor McGregor in the UFC 329 main event, while acknowledging the puncher’s chance that keeps this rematch dangerous. Around it, he favors Gable Stevenson by submission, Robert Whittaker inside the distance, and Cory Sandhagen with the over. It sets up as one of the most entertaining and unpredictable fight nights of the entire year, and Millz will be locked in from the very first preliminary bout.
It is also worth noting how much of this card hinges on inactivity and short-notice bookings. McGregor, Sharipov’s opponent, and the flyweight replacement all carry preparation question marks that the betting markets do not always price cleanly. Millz leans on that uncertainty, favoring finishes and live dogs in spots where cardio, ring rust, or a mismatched camp could tilt an otherwise even matchup in a hurry.
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