MLB Games and Odds for July 10, 2026
Complete Friday betting card with scheduled start times, television coverage, consensus market numbers and detailed starting-pitcher profiles.
Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Aaron Nola RHP
Jack Flaherty RHP
Matchup Overview
Jack Flaherty enters with the lower ERA, while Jack Flaherty owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Aaron Nola, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Philadelphia is hitting .245 against right handed starters with a .428 slugging percentage. Tigers hit .238 against right handed starters with a .408 slugging percentage. Flaherty in his four starts against the NL has an ERA of 10.29. Tigers bullpen in their 27 games against the NL has an ERA of 4.87. Phillies are 17-13 on the road against right handed starters with a +3.5 unit returns. Tigers are 6-7 at home facing teams with a .540 to .620 win percentage with a -1.7 unit loss. Play Phillies +107.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Brandon Sproat RHP
Braxton Ashcraft RHP
Matchup Overview
Braxton Ashcraft enters with the lower ERA, while Braxton Ashcraft owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Braxton Ashcraft, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Milwaukee is hitting .257 in their past 28 games with a .418 slugging percentage. Pirates are hitting .285 in their past 27 games with a .456 slugging percentage. Sproat in his past five starts has an ERA of 2.88 with WHIP of 0.96. Brewers’ bullpen in the better recent and 28 games form. Brewers are 29-16 on the road with a +10.1-unit return. Pirates are 14-22 at home against the NL with a -16.8-unit loss. Play Milwaukee +115.
New York Yankees at Washington Nationals
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Ryan Weathers LHP
Zack Littell will be a bulk pitcher. RHP
Matchup Overview
Ryan Weathers enters with the lower ERA, while Ryan Weathers owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Ryan Weathers, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
NY is batting .220 in their past 27 games with a .283 OBP. Washington is hitting .259 in that span with a .481 slugging percentage. Yankees are 12-16 in their past 28 games with a -8.5-unit loss. Nationals are 18-11 against left-handed starters with a +12.3-unit return. Play Washington +142.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Luinder Avila RHP
Brandon Young RHP
Matchup Overview
Brandon Young enters with the lower ERA, while Luinder Avila owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Luinder Avila, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
KC is batting .271 in their past 27 games with a .445 slugging percentage. Baltimore is hitting .233 in their past 26 games with a .316 OBP. Avila in his ten road appearances has an ERA of 2.65 with .305 slugging percentage against. Royals’ bullpen in better form over the past six games. KC is 7-7 on the road as an underdog of +125 to +175 with a +3-unit return. Orioles are 15-20 at home as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -11.6-unit loss. Play Royals +131.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Shota Imanaga LHP
Hunter Greene RHP
Matchup Overview
Shota Imanaga enters with the lower ERA, while Hunter Greene owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Shota Imanaga, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Cincinnati is batting .221 in their past 26 games with a .303 OBP. Cubs in this span are hitting .257 with a .472 slugging percentage. Imanaga in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.00. Reds bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.38 with WHIP of 1.42. Reds are 5-20 against the division with a -13.9-unit loss. Chicago is 18-9 in their past 27 games with a +6.4-unit return. Play Cubs -105.
Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Parker Messick LHP
Sandy Alcantara RHP
Matchup Overview
Parker Messick enters with the lower ERA, while Parker Messick owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Sandy Alcantara, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Cleveland is hitting .215 against right-handed starters with a .295 OBP. Miami is hitting .245 against left-handed starters with a .410 slugging percentage. Messick in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.77. Alcantara, in his past five starts carries an ERA of 3.15 with .305 slugging percentage against. Marlin’s bullpen has performed well at home. Cleveland is 28-33 against right-handed starters with a -6-unit loss. Miami has won 20 of 27 with a +13-unit return. Play Miami -112.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Luis Castillo RHP
Nick Martinez RHP
Matchup Overview
Nick Martinez enters with the lower ERA, while Luis Castillo owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Luis Castillo, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Seattle is hitting .214 in their past 24 games with a .291 OBP. Tampa Bay in their past 27 games is hitting .260 with a .427 slugging percentage. Seattle is 20-27 on the road with a -13.1-unit loss. Rays are 33-15 at home with a +12.6-unit return. Play Tampa Bay -106.
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Sonny Gray RHP
Nolan McLean RHP
Matchup Overview
Sonny Gray enters with the lower ERA, while Nolan McLean owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Sonny Gray, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Boston is hitting .250 on the road with a .402 slugging percentage. NY is hitting .239 at home with a .393 slugging percentage. Gray in his past five starts has an ERA of 1.62 with WHIP of 0.87. McLean at home carries an ERA of 5.03. Red Sox bullpen is the better recent and 25 game form. NY is 22-25 at home with a -14.7-unit loss. Red Sox won 16 of 26 with a +3.5-unit return. Play Boston +116.
Athletics at Chicago White Sox
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Aaron Civale RHP
Sean Burke RHP
Matchup Overview
Sean Burke enters with the lower ERA, while Sean Burke owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Sean Burke, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Athletics are hitting .228 on the road with a .302 OBP. Chicago is hitting .246 at home with a .415 slugging percentage. Civale in his past four starts has an ERA of 8.64 with WHIP of 1.98. White Sox bullpen in the better recent and 26 game form. Athletics are 10-17 to the run line in their past 27 games with a -8.7-unit loss. White Sox are 39-24 to the run line against right-handed starters with a +12.6-unit return. Play White Sox on run line -1.5 runs at +120.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Hunter Brown RHP
Cal Quantrill RHP
Matchup Overview
Cal Quantrill enters with the lower ERA, while Hunter Brown owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Hunter Brown, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Houston is hitting .231 in their past 27 games with a .301 OBP. Rangers hitting .235 against right-handed starters with a .380 slugging percentage. Astros bullpen in great recent and 27 games form. Rangers bullpen has performed well at home. Play Houston and Texas under 8.
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Grayson Rodriguez RHP
Zebby Matthews RHP
Matchup Overview
Zebby Matthews enters with the lower ERA, while Zebby Matthews owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Zebby Matthews, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
LA is batting .236 in their past six games with a .271 OBP. Twins in this period hit .256 with a .440 slugging percentage. Zebby at home has an ERA of 2.08 with WHIP of 1.03. Twins’ bullpen in the better recent form. LA has lost six of seven with a -5-unit loss. Twins are 17-13 at home against losing teams with a +4.7-unit return. Play Minnesota -123.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Chris Sale LHP
Kyle Leahy RHP
Matchup Overview
Chris Sale enters with the lower ERA, while Chris Sale owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Chris Sale, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Atlanta is hitting .226 in their past 25 games with a .288 OBP. Cardinals are hitting .256 against left-handed starters with a .412 slugging percentage. Both starters in great recent form but each bullpen are not. Atlanta is 10-16 in their past 26 games with a -9.7-unit loss. Cardinals are 16-10 against left-handed starters with a +7.3-unit return. Play St Louis +142.
Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Shane Bieber RHP
JP Sears LHP
Matchup Overview
JP Sears enters with the lower ERA, while JP Sears owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to JP Sears, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Toronto is hitting .239 on the road with a .370 slugging percentage. San Diego is batting .229 at home with a .301 OBP. Blue Jays bullpen in better form over the past 25 games. Toronto is 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters with a +6.6-unit return. Play Blue Jays +100.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP
Shohei Ohtani RHP
Matchup Overview
Shohei Ohtani enters with the lower ERA, while Shohei Ohtani owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Shohei Ohtani, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Arizona is batting .231 on the road with a .300 OBP. LA bats .249 at home with a .325 OBP. Rodriguez in his past five starts has an ERA of 1.53 with WHIP of 1.09. Both bullpens in good recent form. Arizona is 18-7-2 to the under in their past 27 games. LA is 28-19 to the under at home. Play Arizona and LA under 8.5.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Game Odds
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Tanner Gordon RHP
Robbie Ray LHP
Matchup Overview
Robbie Ray enters with the lower ERA, while Tanner Gordon owns the stronger strikeout rate in this matchup. The ground-ball edge belongs to Tanner Gordon, an important separator when evaluating traffic, extra-base-hit exposure and the likelihood of keeping the ball in the park.
The Pick
Colorado is hitting .282 in their past 27 games with a .500 slugging percentage. San Francisco is hitting .244 in their past 24 games with a .432 slugging percentage. Gordon has been hammered in his past six appearances. Both bullpens have performed poorly for the season. SF if 5-1-1 to the over in their past seven games. Rockies are 14-11-1 to the over against left-handed starters. Play Colorado and San Francisco over 8.5.
Free MLB Picks For Today 7/10/2026
MLB Sharp Betting Card
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +107
Moneyline: +107
Grade: B+ (Live road underdog)
Key Edges:
- Philadelphia owns the stronger production against right-handed pitching
- Jack Flaherty has struggled badly against National League opponents
- Detroit’s bullpen has posted weak numbers in interleague play
- Phillies have produced positive returns on the road against right-handed starters
- Tigers have underperformed at home against winning teams
- Plus-money pricing limits the required break-even rate
Read:
Philadelphia offers plus-money value behind the more productive lineup split. Flaherty’s poor results against National League opponents and Detroit’s vulnerable bullpen create a favorable road-underdog setup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +115
Moneyline: +115
Grade: B+ (Profitable plus-money dog)
Key Edges:
- Brandon Sproat enters with a 2.88 ERA over his past five starts
- Sproat has recorded a strong 0.96 WHIP during that stretch
- Milwaukee owns the better recent bullpen form
- Brewers have generated substantial positive returns on the road
- Pittsburgh has been highly unprofitable at home against National League teams
- Plus-money pricing provides value despite Pittsburgh’s offensive form
Read:
Milwaukee is a live road dog with an improving starter and the stronger bullpen profile. The Brewers’ profitable road performance contrasts sharply with Pittsburgh’s costly home record.
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals +142
Moneyline: +142
Grade: A- (High-upside value underdog)
Key Edges:
- Washington owns the stronger recent offensive form
- Nationals have produced a .481 slugging percentage over the recent sample
- New York is batting only .220 during its current downturn
- Yankees have lost significant betting units over their past 28 games
- Washington has been highly profitable against left-handed starters
- The generous plus-money price creates a strong pricing edge
Read:
Washington combines better current offensive form with an excellent record against left-handed pitching. New York’s extended slump makes the Nationals attractive at a substantial underdog price.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals +131
Moneyline: +131
Grade: B+ (Form-based road dog)
Key Edges:
- Kansas City is batting .271 over its recent 27-game sample
- The Royals have produced a strong .445 slugging percentage
- Luinder Avila owns a 2.65 ERA in his road appearances
- Kansas City’s bullpen has shown the better recent form
- Baltimore’s offense has struggled with a .316 recent on-base percentage
- Orioles have been unprofitable as home favorites
Read:
Kansas City brings the better offensive form and a starter who has performed significantly better on the road. Baltimore’s weak home-favorite profile makes the Royals a playable plus-money dog.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs -105
Moneyline: -105
Grade: A- (Near-even-money form edge)
Key Edges:
- Chicago is hitting .257 over its recent sample
- Cubs have generated a powerful .472 recent slugging percentage
- Cincinnati is batting only .221 with a .303 on-base percentage
- Shota Imanaga owns a 3.00 ERA over his past five starts
- The Cincinnati home bullpen carries a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP
- Reds are just 5-20 against divisional opponents
Read:
Chicago holds clear advantages in offensive form, starting-pitcher stability and bullpen support. The near-even-money price is favorable against a Cincinnati club that has consistently struggled within the division.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -112
Moneyline: -112
Grade: B+ (Home form advantage)
Key Edges:
- Cleveland is hitting only .215 against right-handed pitching
- Guardians own a weak .295 on-base percentage in that split
- Miami is hitting .245 against left-handed starters
- Sandy Alcantara has a 3.15 ERA over his past five starts
- Miami’s bullpen has performed well at home
- Marlins have won 20 of their past 27 games
Read:
Miami’s offensive split against left-handers matches up well with Parker Messick, while Alcantara enters in improved form. The Marlins’ extended winning stretch and reliable home bullpen justify the modest price.
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -106
Moneyline: -106
Grade: B+ (Strong home-field split)
Key Edges:
- Tampa Bay is batting .260 over its recent 27-game stretch
- The Rays have produced a .427 slugging percentage during that span
- Seattle is hitting only .214 with a .291 on-base percentage
- Nick Martinez owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP
- Mariners have been highly unprofitable on the road
- Tampa Bay owns a dominant 33-15 home record
Read:
Tampa Bay has the better starter, stronger lineup form and a major home-versus-road situational edge. Getting the Rays near even money creates a favorable home-side position.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
Play: Boston Red Sox +116
Moneyline: +116
Grade: A- (Starting-pitching value dog)
Key Edges:
- Sonny Gray has a 1.62 ERA over his past five starts
- Gray owns a dominant 0.87 WHIP during that stretch
- Nolan McLean carries a 5.03 ERA at home
- Boston owns the better recent bullpen form
- The Red Sox are hitting .250 on the road
- New York has lost significant betting units at home
Read:
Boston has the more trustworthy starting-pitcher profile and the better recent bullpen. With the Mets struggling to produce value at home, the Red Sox offer an appealing plus-money position.
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
Run Line: -1.5 (+120)
Grade: B+ (Plus-money run-line value)
Key Edges:
- Aaron Civale has an 8.64 ERA over his past four starts
- Civale has recorded a damaging 1.98 WHIP during that stretch
- Chicago owns the stronger home offensive split
- The White Sox have the better recent bullpen form
- Athletics are just 10-17 against the run line in their past 27 games
- Chicago has been profitable against the run line versus right-handed starters
Read:
Civale’s recent struggles create legitimate separation potential for Chicago. The starting-pitching edge, bullpen gap and plus-money return make the White Sox run line preferable to the expensive moneyline.
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers
Play: Houston Astros–Texas Rangers Under 8
Total: Under 8 (-118)
Grade: B (Run-prevention setup)
Key Edges:
- Houston is hitting only .231 over its past 27 games
- The Astros own a weak .301 recent on-base percentage
- Texas is batting only .235 against right-handed pitching
- Rangers have produced a modest .380 slugging percentage in that split
- Houston’s bullpen enters in excellent recent form
- Texas has received reliable bullpen work at home
Read:
Both offenses enter with underwhelming production, particularly in the relevant pitching splits. Strong bullpen form on each side supports a lower-scoring divisional matchup.
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -123
Moneyline: -123
Grade: B+ (Home pitching edge)
Key Edges:
- Zebby Matthews owns a 2.08 ERA at home
- Matthews has recorded a strong 1.03 home WHIP
- Minnesota holds the better recent bullpen form
- Twins are slugging .440 over their latest six-game sample
- Los Angeles has a weak .271 recent on-base percentage
- The Angels have lost six of their past seven games
Read:
Minnesota has the starting-pitching edge at home and the more dependable bullpen. The Angels’ poor offensive form and extended losing stretch make the Twins worth backing at a manageable price.
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +142
Moneyline: +142
Grade: B+ (Split-driven home underdog)
Key Edges:
- St. Louis is hitting .256 against left-handed pitching
- Cardinals own a solid .412 slugging percentage in that split
- Atlanta is batting only .226 over its recent 25-game sample
- The Braves have a weak .288 recent on-base percentage
- Atlanta has lost significant units during its current downturn
- St. Louis has been profitable against left-handed starters
Read:
Chris Sale presents a difficult matchup, but the price accounts for his starting-pitching edge. St. Louis has performed well against left-handers and offers meaningful home-underdog value against a slumping Atlanta lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +100
Moneyline: +100
Grade: B (Even-money split edge)
Key Edges:
- San Diego is batting only .229 at home
- Padres own a weak .301 home on-base percentage
- Toronto has the stronger recent bullpen form
- Blue Jays are 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters
- Toronto has produced strong profits in that road split
- Even-money pricing provides a reasonable entry point
Read:
Toronto’s bullpen advantage and success against road left-handed pitching compensate for its modest offensive numbers. San Diego’s poor home production makes the Blue Jays playable at even money.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks–Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8.5
Total: Under 8.5 (+100)
Grade: B+ (Starting-pitching under)
Key Edges:
- Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 1.53 ERA over his past five starts
- Rodriguez has recorded a 1.09 WHIP during that stretch
- Shohei Ohtani enters with a 1.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP
- Both bullpens have performed well recently
- Arizona is 18-7-2 to the under over its past 27 games
- Los Angeles has produced a strong under record at home
Read:
Two strong starting-pitcher profiles and dependable recent bullpen work create a solid run-prevention setup. The established under trends for both teams strengthen the case at an even-money price.
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Play: Colorado Rockies–San Francisco Giants Over 8.5
Total: Over 8.5
Grade: B+ (Pitching-fade over)
Key Edges:
- Colorado is hitting .282 over its past 27 games
- Rockies have generated a powerful .500 recent slugging percentage
- San Francisco owns a .432 slugging percentage over its recent sample
- Tanner Gordon has been hit hard over his past six appearances
- Both bullpens have performed poorly over the season
- Each team owns favorable recent over trends
Read:
Improving offensive form meets a vulnerable starter and two unreliable bullpens. With both teams consistently trending toward higher-scoring games, the over has multiple paths to cash.
