The Two-Three Zone is back for another Friday night in the WNBA, and Ron Crawford is joined by Justin “Stax” McKelby to run through a loaded July 10 slate. The crew is riding a strong week — Stax cashed a Sparks outright ticket at plus money and swept his solo show — so the confidence is high heading into three games that all carry real betting value.
This breakdown focuses on the sides and totals the Two-Three Zone is attacking tonight: a road-weary favorite trying to close out a long East Coast trip, a Dallas offense that just hung 89 on Toronto, and a late-night Sparks number that has Stax fading his own winning ticket. Let us dig into all three matchups, lean on the numbers, and land on where the sharpest value sits.
Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
The featured game of the early window sends the red-hot Golden State Valkyries into Connecticut for a 7:30 PM ET tip. Golden State enters at a gaudy 16-7 straight up and has been one of the best stories in the league, but the Valkyries are laying a number that has shrunk from an opening -9.5 down to -7.5 by the latest look. The total sits at 154.5, one of the lowest marks on the entire board tonight.
That total is no accident. Golden State has turned into a defensive buzzsaw, holding opponents to just 69.8 points per game across its last five outings while going a perfect 5-0 straight up in that stretch. On the season the Valkyries surrender only 76.7 points a night, and the model favorite under system — road favorites off strong scoring margins after a close loss — is a stout 110-59 (65.1%) since 1997 and applies directly to Golden State here.
Connecticut, meanwhile, is the classic bad-record, live-underdog trap. The Sun sit at just 5-17 straight up, but the against-the-spread story is completely different. Connecticut has covered five in a row, banking nearly six units in that span while averaging 82.6 points at home over the last five. They have also revamped their look, pairing Brittney Griner with a bigger, more physical middle that has changed how they defend.
Ron’s read is that this is a potential flat spot for Golden State. The Valkyries are on the fourth game of a grinding East Coast road trip, and a look-ahead spot looms with a Caitlin Clark-led Indiana Fever team on deck. Connecticut plays genuinely well at home, and getting a full field goal of cushion against a road team at the end of a long trip is exactly the kind of number the Two-Three Zone chases.
Golden State wants to win from the perimeter, and if the threes are falling this can still get out of hand. But if the Valkyries go cold from deep against a bigger Connecticut front line, this becomes a grind-it-out rock fight — precisely the game script that favors the Sun and the under. Both Ron and Stax landed on Connecticut with the points, no moneyline sprinkle required.
The pick: Connecticut Sun +7.5, buying back toward +9.5 if you can still find it, with a secondary lean to the under 154.5. Ron is making Connecticut plus the number his official best bet of the night.
Dallas Wings at Toronto Tempo
The second game on the Two-Three Zone card is a rematch, with the Dallas Wings heading north to face the Toronto Tempo, also at 7:30 PM ET. Dallas is laying 6.5 with a total of 180.5, and the two sides just met recently — a game the Wings won comfortably, 89-76, by 13 points. Familiarity runs deep in this one.
Dallas has been one of the higher-scoring outfits in the league, pouring in 88.3 points per game on the year and cranking that up to 89.8 on the road. Against Eastern Conference opponents the Wings are 8-2 straight up while averaging 88.6 points, and they are coming off an 88-77 beatdown of the New York Liberty. This is a team that lights up the scoreboard when it is dialed in.
Toronto is the real engine behind this total, though. The Tempo have hit the over in 13 of 21 games and give up a hefty 91.3 points per contest — the kind of leaky defense that turns any decent opponent into an over machine. Even at home Toronto surrenders 85.6 a night, and over their last five they are allowing 90.4 while the games keep flying over the number.
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Injuries only sharpen the over angle. Ron flagged that Toronto is dealing with a banged-up rotation: Naira Savali is out, Fab Genley is sidelined again, Kiki Rice is unavailable, and the team has been without Brittney, whose absence has left a real hole. A short-handed Tempo defense against a Dallas team that just dropped 89 on them is a recipe for points.
The one caution is Dallas’s habit of playing down to weaker competition — the Wings have gone just 1-4 against the spread over their last five as the market catches up to them. That is why the Two-Three Zone is steering toward the total rather than laying the number. With both teams comfortably in the 88-89 point range and Toronto’s defense springing leaks, the over is the cleaner path.
The pick: Over 180.5. Both Ron and Stax are on the over, expecting a fast pace and Toronto’s soft interior to push this comfortably past the total.
Chicago Sky at Los Angeles Sparks
The nightcap shifts to the West Coast for a 10:00 PM ET tip between the Chicago Sky and the Los Angeles Sparks. This one is nearly a pick-em: Los Angeles is laying just 1.5 at home with a moneyline of -120, while Chicago sits at +100, and the total matches the Dallas game at 180.5.
Stax came into the segment loving the Sparks — he cashed them outright at plus 220 the night before — but he is doing something that takes real discipline: fading his own winner. His number one rule is that he never wants the Sparks as a favorite, and asking a team to win two in a row at a chalk price is a spot he simply will not play.
The data backs the contrarian angle. Los Angeles has been a nightmare against the spread at home, sitting at just 3-8 ATS and 4-7 straight up on their own floor while surrendering a brutal 92.5 points per game there. The Sparks defense has been a sieve all year, giving up 93.6 points a night overall, and against Eastern Conference opponents they have bled an eye-watering 98.2.
Chicago, for all its 7-14 record, is trending up. The Sky have won the ATS battle in four of their last five, and the offense has erupted for 98.2 points per game over that stretch while shooting 50% from the field. They are 8-5 against the spread versus Western Conference foes, and getting plus money on a near coin flip against a poor defensive team is exactly the value Stax hunts.
Injuries add a wrinkle worth monitoring. Chicago will be without Skylar Diggins and Carrington, while the Sparks have Cameron Brink and Kelsey Plum listed as out — though Ron warned that L.A.’s questionable tags have a habit of flipping back to active by tip-off. Keep an eye on the final injury report, because Plum’s status in particular can swing this number.
On the total, both the trends and the matchup scream points. The Sparks are a monster over team at 14-6 to the over, Chicago has cashed 13 overs of its own, and L.A.’s home defense has been porous. Ron is comfortable taking the over 180.5, while Stax prefers the plus-money side.
The pick: Chicago Sky moneyline at +100, which is Stax’s play, with the over 180.5 as Ron’s preferred angle in a game that projects to be played in the 90s.
Two-Three Zone Best Bets Recap
When the dust settled, the crew locked in their favorites. Ron’s official best bet is the Connecticut Sun plus the number, betting on a flat spot for a road-weary Golden State team and a Sun squad that has quietly covered five straight at home while playing much sturdier defense.
Stax hammered the Chicago Sky moneyline at plus money, sticking to his rule against backing the Sparks as favorites and trusting a Chicago offense that has been on fire. On the totals side, the Two-Three Zone leans under in the low-scoring Golden State–Connecticut clash and over in both the Dallas–Toronto and Chicago–Sparks shootouts.
As always, these numbers move fast, so shop for the best available line before you fire. For the full slate of free video breakdowns, live shows, and premium picks, tonyspicks.com is the place to be all season long.
Final Word
The Two-Three Zone has built its reputation on leaning into the numbers rather than chasing hunches, and tonight’s card is a perfect example — live home dogs, leaky defenses, and plus-money coin flips all backed by real trends. Do your own homework, confirm the injury reports up to tip, and manage your bankroll responsibly.
Remember that all wagering carries risk, and no pick is ever a guarantee. Please bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun or starts to feel like a problem, confidential help is available 24/7 through the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
