This is Tony T from tonyspicks.com with the Monday refresh of our Third-Time-Through-the-Order fade list — the weekly board we apply to live betting all week long. The concept is old-school baseball wisdom backed by our own data: the more times a lineup sees a starter, the better it hits him. Across our 604-game pitch-by-pitch sample from June 1 through July 19, 2026, league on-base percentage climbs each time through — 27.4% first time, 28.2% second time, and 29.1% the third time through the order. That’s the baseline. The pitchers below blow past it. Our “fade score” is the on-base jump from a pitcher’s first time through to his third time through, in percentage points — the bigger the number, the harder he collapses on the third look, and the better the live “over” or opposing-team spot when he comes back out for that third lap.
Every arm here cleared our qualifier: five-plus starts and at least 20 batters faced on the third time through. All names and injury statuses were verified before publishing — and that verification already knocked one big name off the list, which I’ll get to.
The Fade List — arms to attack the third time through
1. Ranger Suárez, Boston Red Sox — Fade score 23.4
Play: Live-over / opponent-offense once Suárez turns the lineup a third time Grade: A (Steepest Collapse on the Board) Key Edges:
- OB% jumps from 13.0% first time to 36.4% third time — a pack-high 23.4-point fade
- Averages 88.5 pitches per start, so the third time through is squarely in his workload
- Velocity barely moves (90.4 early to 90.6 late), so this is command erosion, not a gas gauge
- Elite first-time-through suppression (13.0%) is what makes the third-time cliff so profitable
Read: The offseason Phillies-to-Boston addition is the model’s No. 1 fade this week, and it’s not close. Suárez is nearly unhittable the first time through at a 13.0% on-base clip, then falls off a table to 36.4% on the third look. Because his velocity holds, books and live models are slow to adjust — they see the same fastball and assume the same pitcher. This is our top third-time-through target on the tonyspicks.com board.
2. Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians — Fade score 23.1
Play: Live-over once Cecconi reaches the third time through Grade: A- (Near-Identical Cliff) Key Edges:
- OB% rises from 17.5% first time to 40.6% third time — a 23.1-point jump
- 84.1 pitches per start on average
- A 40.6% third-time on-base rate is one of the two worst on the qualified board
Read: Cecconi is the mirror of Suárez — sharp early at 17.5% on-base, then hittable to the tune of a 40.6% on-base rate the third time through. That 40.6% is the highest third-time mark on the entire fade list. Verified active after an early-season oblique issue, he’s on the board and he’s a live-over magnet the moment the lineup comes around for the third time.
3. Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels — Fade score 21.0
Play: Live-over / opposing bats third time through Grade: B+ (Command Over Velocity) Key Edges:
- OB% climbs from 19.0% first time to 40.0% third time — a 21.0-point fade
- Sits 96.8 mph early and 96.5 mph late, so again this is command, not velocity loss
- 93.1 pitches per start keeps him in the game long enough to be exposed
Read: Ureña throws premium gas — near 97 mph deep into starts — which is exactly why the fade works. The velocity never drops, so nobody expects the collapse, but his on-base allowed doubles from 19.0% to 40.0% the third time through. When the radar gun lies, the on-base data tells the truth. Fade the third lap.
4. Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles — Fade score 16.5
Play: Live-over third time through Grade: B (Steady Slide) Key Edges:
- OB% moves from 17.5% first time to 34.0% third time — a 16.5-point jump
- A genuine velocity drop here: 95.0 mph early to 93.7 mph late (1.3 mph)
- 93.4 pitches per start
Read: Bradish — fresh off a five-year extension and fully active — is a cleaner “tiring” story than the top three: his fastball actually sheds 1.3 mph by the back third, and the on-base jumps from 17.5% to 34.0%. When you see him lose a tick on the gun the third time through, that’s your live trigger.
5. Michael King, San Diego Padres — Fade score 14.0
Play: Live-over third time through Grade: B (Velocity + Command Fade) Key Edges:
- OB% rises from 22.2% first time to 36.2% third time — a 14.0-point fade
- Fastball dips a full 1.0 mph (93.6 to 92.6) by the late count
- 92.4 pitches per start
Read: King is active and pitching well overall, but the third-time-through math is unkind: a 14.0-point on-base jump paired with a real 1.0-mph velocity drop. He’s a get-him-early arm for opposing offenses, and a strong live-over candidate once he’s turned the lineup twice.
The name that came off the board: Nick Lodolo
The Reds’ Nick Lodolo grades as the model’s No. 3 fade this week at 22.2 points (22.2% on-base first time, 44.4% third time). He is not on the board. Lodolo landed on the 15-day injured list on July 13 with a finger blister — the second blister IL stint of his 2026. Do not build a live-betting plan around him; he isn’t pitching. This is exactly why we verify every featured arm before publishing.
The Cruisers — starters safe to ride deep
These are the inverse of the fade list: pitchers who actually get better the third time through, making them poor “over” targets and strong candidates to trust into the seventh and beyond.
- Zack Littell, Washington Nationals (fade score -25.7): The best cruiser in the pack. His on-base allowed drops from 40.0% first time to 14.3% third time. Active and rolling — do not fade him late; if anything, the third-time-through spot is where he’s toughest.
- Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox (fade score -17.6): Early tightens from 37.0% to 19.4% on the third look. Active. A Suárez rotation-mate who is the exact opposite live-betting profile — ride, don’t fade.
- Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (fade score -15.6): The classic workhorse profile. On-base allowed falls from 30.9% to 15.3% deep in games, and he averages a pack-heavy 99.7 pitches per start — he’s built to finish what he starts. Active. Trust him into the late innings.
- Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (fade score -9.8): Webb drops from 29.2% to 19.4% the third time through across 97.1 pitches per start. A steady deep-game arm.
A cruiser to hold off on: Jacob deGrom
The Rangers’ Jacob deGrom grades as the model’s No. 2 cruiser at -18.2 (31.7% first time down to 13.5% third time) — normally a premium “ride him deep” arm. But he’s a hold this week: deGrom is day-to-day with a mild left glute strain, missed his final start before the All-Star break, and had not been officially activated at publish. Don’t bank a deep-start plan on him until his status clears. If he’s scratched, the whole live-betting calculus for that Rangers game changes.
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Live Betting Playbook
Here’s how to actually use this board once first pitch arrives:
1. Count the pitches, count the lineup turns. The fade list arms hurt you on the third time through — that’s typically pitches 65–90 and the top of the order coming up for the third time. Suárez (88.5 P/GS), Cecconi (84.1), and Ureña (93.1) all pitch deep enough to get there. 2. Watch the gun on the command-only fades. Suárez, Cecconi, and Ureña barely lose velocity, so don’t wait for a radar-gun drop — their collapse is command-based, so attack on lineup turn, not on velocity. Bradish (-1.3 mph) and King (-1.0 mph) do lose a tick, so on those two, a visible velocity dip is your extra green light. 3. Fade into the right offense. A third-time-through fade is strongest against a lineup that’s already squared him up twice. Pair the fade with a team that’s put runners on early. 4. Flip the script on cruisers. When Littell, Alcantara, Webb, or Connelly Early is turning the order a third time, that’s the wrong time to buy an over — those are your under/ride spots.
For the rest of the daily card and our premium plays, the “Free MLB Picks For Today” roundup on tonyspicks.com ties these third-time-through triggers into the full slate all week.
Lines and probable starters are subject to change before first pitch — this is a weekly board, so always confirm a pitcher is actually starting (and healthy) before applying it, the way Nick Lodolo is off the board on the IL and Jacob deGrom is on hold. This is data-driven analysis, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does “third time through the order” mean? It refers to a starter facing the same lineup for the third time in a game — typically after about 18 batters. Hitters see the ball better each look, and our data shows league on-base% climbs from 27.4% first time to 29.1% third time. The fade list finds pitchers who collapse far harder than that.
What is a fade score? It’s the jump in on-base percentage from a pitcher’s first time through the order to his third, in percentage points. Ranger Suárez leads this week at 23.4 — his on-base allowed nearly triples from 13.0% to 36.4% by the third look.
Does the fade list mean I should bet against these pitchers first pitch? No — it’s a live-betting tool. These arms are often excellent early (Suárez allows just a 13.0% on-base rate the first time through). The edge is buying the over or the opposing offense once he’s turned the lineup twice, not fading him from the opening pitch.
Lines and probable starters are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Tony Tellez is the author/editor of TonysPicks, offering daily free sports picks and expert analysis for legal wagering. A seasoned handicapper with a TV show background and significant online presence, Tony provides data-driven insights across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and more, focusing on valuable betting information.
