The last WNBA game on the July 17 slate tips at 10:00 PM, and it features two struggling teams heading in opposite directions against the number. Phoenix is favored by four and a half at home. Ramon Scott is taking Connecticut in the first half at plus two and a half, targeting the spot where the Mercury have been at their most vulnerable.
Matchup Overview
The nightcap pairs a four-game losing streak against a team quietly playing its best basketball in months.
Phoenix comes in at 8-17 and riding a four-game losing streak. Connecticut is 6-18 but has won two of its last four and, in Ramon’s assessment, has been playing a lot better of late. The full-game total sits at 164.5 and the Mercury are laying two and a half in the first half.
Neither of these clubs is going anywhere this season. What matters for betting purposes is that one of them has been reliable against the number recently and the other has been a disaster in its own building.
The Phoenix Problem
Home court is supposed to be an advantage. For the Mercury this season it has been the opposite.
Here is the number that drives everything: Phoenix is 3-8 against the spread at home this season, costing better than nine units. That is among the worst home cover records in the league, and Ramon flagged it as the reason this is not a good spot for the Mercury comparatively.
The rest of the profile matches. Phoenix is 10-15 against the spread overall and 8-17 on the money line, having cost backers seven and a half units. Over their last five games they are 2-3 against the number, averaging 80.6 points while allowing 89.2. That is a nine-point negative differential during a four-game skid.
At home the Mercury do score, averaging 86.0 points, but they concede 89.4. A team that gets outscored in its own building is not a team you want to lay points with, even against a 6-18 opponent.
Connecticut’s Form
The Sun are not good, but they have been trending the right way while their opponent has been sliding.
The Sun are 6-18 and have been, by Ramon’s description, a very reliable team against the spread of late, especially as an underdog. The season-long number backs it: Connecticut is 13-11 against the spread despite winning only a quarter of their games.
The recent form is the standout. Over their last five games the Sun are 4-1 against the number, worth three units. They are coming off a win over Portland in which they shot 52 percent from the field and recorded 28 assists, which is genuinely excellent basketball regardless of opponent.
DeWanna Edwards continues to look good, dropping 21 points on nine of thirteen shooting in that Portland win. Efficient scoring from a primary option is what keeps bad teams within a number.
The Underdog Pattern
Records and cover rates diverge for identifiable reasons, and Connecticut is a textbook case.
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Connecticut’s profile is the classic bad-team-good-bet setup. They are 12-8 against the spread as an underdog by Ramon’s count, and the market keeps treating them as a 6-18 club rather than as a team that competes. That gap between record and performance is where underdog value lives all season long.
The Sun have won two of their last four, which for a team at 6-18 represents a genuine uptick. Ramon emphasized that Connecticut continues to play pretty hard, and effort is the one variable that separates bad teams that cover from bad teams that quit.
Key Stats and Trends
Connecticut averages barely 80 points per game and does not shoot well from three-point range. That sounds disqualifying until you look at the other end. Ramon pointed out they are a decent defensive team, believe it or not, forcing 15 turnovers per game.
Turnovers are the great equalizer for an outmatched roster. A team that cannot shoot but can generate extra possessions stays in games it has no business being in, and that is exactly how Connecticut has built a 13-11 spread record on a 6-18 season.
On the road the Sun are 5-5 against the spread and have actually turned a small profit, averaging 77.4 points against 88.3 allowed. Those raw numbers look ugly, but the spread record shows they have been getting enough of a head start to compensate.
Why the First Half
The wrapper matters, and Ramon picked the segment that best isolates his edge.
Ramon’s decision to take the first half rather than the full game is deliberate. He said the against-the-spread trends favor Connecticut and he wanted them in the first half at plus two and a half. That construction limits exposure to the fourth quarter, where a deeper, more talented Phoenix roster could theoretically pull away.
It also targets Phoenix’s specific weakness. A club on a four-game losing streak playing at home in front of a frustrated crowd is most vulnerable early, before it settles. Connecticut’s turnover-forcing defense is at its most disruptive in the opening minutes when opponents are still finding rhythm.
Alyssa Thomas and the Snub
Ramon spent a moment on Alyssa Thomas being left off the All-Star roster, calling it a genuine snub before catching himself and joking about being nicer. It is worth noting for a practical reason: players carrying a perceived slight into the second half sometimes play with an edge, and Thomas is talented enough for that to matter.
That is the honest risk in fading Phoenix. A motivated star on a team with nothing to lose can produce exactly the kind of first-half surge that buries a two-and-a-half-point cushion.
The Injury Picture
Neither report is decisive, but both are worth checking before tip-off.
Both rosters are dealing with absences. For Connecticut, Morrow is doubtful and Rivers is probable. For Phoenix, Whitcomb is questionable. Ramon noted there are a few injuries in this one without any of them being decisive.
Alyssa Thomas remains the difference-maker for Phoenix. Ramon made a point of saying she was ripped off by not making the All-Star team, and a motivated Thomas is capable of carrying this Mercury side well past a two-and-a-half-point first-half margin on her own.
The Case Against
Backing a 6-18 team on the road always deserves a hard look at the downside.
Phoenix hung in there against Minnesota recently, which shows the fight is still there despite the losing streak. And Connecticut, for all their spread competence, is 2-8 on the money line away from home. They lose these games, and sometimes they lose them badly.
The Sun’s shooting is the structural worry. A team that cannot make threes can go cold for a full half and lose by twelve at the break, which no amount of turnover creation will offset.
Two Struggling Teams
Late-season games between also-rans reward situational reads over talent evaluation.
Games between clubs well out of the playoff race can go either way, and the market often struggles to price them. Neither of these teams has meaningful stakes left in July, which strips away the motivation edge that usually informs a handicap.
What remains is form and situation. Connecticut’s form is improving and Phoenix’s is deteriorating. Phoenix’s situation is a home venue where they have failed to cover eight of eleven times. When motivation is neutral on both sides, form and situation decide it.
Final Prediction
The trends, the venue and the form all converge on the same side of this number.
Give me Connecticut in the first half at plus two and a half. Ramon Scott is backing the Sun, targeting a Phoenix side that is 3-8 against the spread at home, riding a four-game losing streak, and being outscored by nine per game over its last five.
Connecticut is 4-1 against the number over their last five and 13-11 on the season despite a 6-18 record. Take the points in the first half against a home team that has not covered all year.
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