Tony’s Picks Morning Show MLB and WNBA Betting Preview for July 16, 2026

Major League Baseball returns from the All-Star break with a nationally televised matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, while the WNBA contributes two games to a compact Thursday betting schedule.

The limited number of games places a premium on price sensitivity, injury evaluation and disciplined line shopping. There is no reason to manufacture betting volume when only three major games are available.

Tony T, Chris Adkins, Bo Dunn and Al Ninos approached the card from different directions, but several clear areas of agreement emerged. The strongest collective position targets offense in Philadelphia, while the Dallas Wings attracted support against a struggling New York Liberty team.

The Portland Fire and Washington Mystics matchup produced substantially more disagreement. Washington received professional support because of its defensive form, but multiple Morning Show viewers preferred Portland with the available points.

All odds listed below are from the uploaded sportsbook reports for July 16, 2026. Betting markets can move throughout the day, making line shopping essential before placing any wager.

Morning Show Best Bets at a Glance

Tony T

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline

Washington Mystics against the spread

Dallas Wings against the spread

Chris Adkins

Mets-Phillies over 9.5 runs

Dallas Wings -1.5

Gabriel Rincones Jr. to hit a home run

Brett Baty to hit a home run

Al Ninos

Washington Mystics against the spread

Mets first five innings lean

Mets-Phillies over 9.5 runs

Bo Dunn

New York Liberty-Dallas Wings over 176.5 points

MLB Betting Preview

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Broadcast: ESPN

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Expected Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Aaron Nola

Sportsbook Odds Card

Moneyline

New York Mets: +106 to +124

Philadelphia Phillies: -122 to -142

Run Line

New York Mets +1.5: approximately -163 to -180

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5: approximately +146 to +157

Game Total

Over 9.5: approximately -104 to -118

Under 9.5: approximately -100 to -114

First Five Innings

Mets +0.5: approximately -138

Phillies -0.5: approximately +106

First-five total: 5.5

Pitching Matchup

Christian Scott

Christian Scott enters the second half in a difficult assignment against a Philadelphia lineup capable of producing damage throughout the batting order.

The right-hander must navigate Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and several additional hitters who can punish mistakes in the strike zone. Scott’s ability to work ahead will be critical because Philadelphia becomes considerably more dangerous when hitters can sit on fastballs in favorable counts.

Scott also faces a hostile environment in warm Philadelphia weather. Temperatures were expected to reach the 90s, creating better carry conditions than pitchers typically experience during cooler early-season games.

Philadelphia does not need to dominate Scott immediately for the matchup to work in its favor. Extending at-bats, elevating his pitch count and forcing an early move to the Mets bullpen could create scoring opportunities in the middle innings.

Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola provides Philadelphia with the more established starting pitcher, but his reputation should not automatically remove the Mets from the scoring equation.

New York’s projected lineup contains several left-handed and switch-hitting bats capable of creating pressure against a right-handed starter. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Brett Baty, Jared Young and Jorge Polanco give the Mets multiple opportunities to attack Nola from the left side.

Nola remains capable of delivering a quality start when he commands his curveball and locates his fastball at the top of the zone. However, his occasional home-run vulnerability becomes more concerning in hot conditions at Citizens Bank Park.

This is one reason the Morning Show’s strongest agreement developed around the total rather than either starting pitcher.

Chris Adkins Pick

Mets-Phillies Over 9.5

Chris Adkins identified the over as the best way to approach the only MLB game on Thursday’s schedule.

Philadelphia holds the superior overall lineup matchup against Scott, but Adkins does not expect the scoring to remain one-sided. The Mets possess enough left-handed power to challenge Nola, especially in favorable hitting conditions.

The Phillies also return home with several prominent hitters looking to begin the second half aggressively. Philadelphia’s lineup should create sustained pressure even if it does not generate immediate home runs.

The combination of heat, a hitter-friendly venue and two lineups capable of exploiting mistakes supports a game script in which both teams contribute to the total.

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Mets-Phillies over 9.5 runs

Al Ninos Pick

Mets First Five Innings Lean

Al Ninos gave a first-five lean to the Mets because he was willing to consider Christian Scott against Aaron Nola over the opening portion of the game.

The first-five approach removes the later innings and limits exposure to a Mets bullpen that becomes more difficult to trust on the road. That distinction matters because a handicapper may view New York as competitive early without wanting to back the Mets over the entire game.

A Mets first-five wager could be played through the available +0.5 run line rather than forcing a moneyline position. Taking the half-run protects against a tied score after five innings.

This is a lean rather than the strongest Al Ninos recommendation. His greater confidence remained with the full-game total.

Al Ninos’ Lean: Mets first five innings +0.5

Mets-Phillies Over 9.5

Al Ninos joined Chris Adkins on the over, creating the strongest professional agreement on the MLB card.

Philadelphia should generate offense against Scott, while the Mets’ left-handed bats provide a path to production against Nola. The available total of 9.5 requires a significant offensive performance, but the market is accounting for the same favorable conditions identified by the handicappers.

Bettors considering the over should still shop prices. An over 9.5 at -104 or -106 is substantially more attractive than paying -118 for the same number.

Al Ninos’ Pick: Mets-Phillies over 9.5 runs

Tony T Pick

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Tony T backed Philadelphia based on lineup strength, home-field performance and the Mets’ weaker road profile.

New York entered this matchup with concerning offensive results away from home. The Mets had produced limited road power and carried a losing road record that had created a significant negative return for their backers.

Philadelphia has been the more dependable home team and possesses a deeper collection of established run producers. The Phillies also have the more experienced starting pitcher in Nola and should hold the advantage if both bullpens perform near expectation.

The moneyline is preferable to laying -1.5 runs because the game could remain close even if Philadelphia ultimately wins. Taking a price near -122 or -124 would be more attractive than accepting the more expensive -137 or -142 options.

Tony T’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline

Morning Show Chat Picks

The Morning Show audience produced opinions on both sides of the matchup, although the total received the clearest support.

Ghost Wins Sports joined the professional consensus by backing over 9.5 runs.

Ron Hahn leaned toward the Philadelphia moneyline, agreeing with Tony T’s position on the home team.

Scipio also supported the Phillies moneyline because of concerns about trusting the Mets’ offense.

Lex Steele backed the Mets moneyline, creating a contrarian position against the Philadelphia support.

Bakari constructed a more aggressive collection of correlated positions involving the over, Bryce Harper to hit a home run, Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run and Aaron Nola to record at least six strikeouts.

The Harper and Schwarber home-run positions fit an over handicap, but stacking several correlated bets increases volatility. A bettor using that strategy should reduce individual stake sizes rather than treating every wager as a full unit.

MLB Home Run Prop Report

Gabriel Rincones Jr. Home Run

Chris Adkins identified Gabriel Rincones Jr. as one of his long-shot home-run candidates.

The appeal is based on price rather than probability alone. Rincones does not carry the same reputation as Harper, Schwarber or Soto, which should produce a substantially larger payoff.

Christian Scott’s matchup against the Philadelphia lineup creates opportunities beyond the most obvious hitters. If Scott concentrates on navigating the top of the order, a lower-profile power bat may receive a hittable pitch in a favorable count.

Chris Adkins’ Home Run Pick: Gabriel Rincones Jr.

Brett Baty Home Run

Brett Baty was Adkins’ long-shot selection from the Mets lineup.

Baty receives the platoon advantage against the right-handed Nola and has the type of left-handed power that can benefit from the dimensions at Citizens Bank Park.

The wager remains highly speculative. Home-run props should generally be played at smaller stakes because even excellent power hitters fail to homer in most individual games.

Chris Adkins’ Home Run Pick: Brett Baty

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber

Bakari supported both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to homer.

Harper carries a favorable matchup against Scott and had already demonstrated success in a limited sample against the right-hander. Schwarber remains one of Philadelphia’s premier power threats and can change the game with one swing.

The principal concern is market price. Star hitters generally receive much shorter home-run odds than secondary lineup options. Bettors must decide whether the increased probability justifies the reduced return.

Aaron Nola Strikeout Prop

Bakari also backed Aaron Nola to record six or more strikeouts.

New York’s lineup contains dangerous hitters, but Nola can accumulate strikeouts when his curveball is generating swings below the zone. Working deep enough into the game is the most important requirement for clearing this prop.

The potential conflict is that a high-scoring game could shorten Nola’s outing. Bettors combining Nola strikeouts with the game over are relying on the Phillies to provide most of the early scoring while Nola still generates enough strikeouts before leaving the game.

WNBA Betting Preview

Portland Fire at Washington Mystics

Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Sportsbook Odds Card

Point Spread

Portland Fire: +5.5 to +6.5

Washington Mystics: -5.5 to -6.5

Moneyline

Portland Fire: +190 to +200

Washington Mystics: -238 to -250

Game Total

Over 162.5 to 163.5: approximately -105 to -112

Under 162.5 to 163.5: approximately -108 to -116

Injury Report

Portland entered the matchup with multiple availability concerns, including absences affecting the team’s rotation.

Washington entered with the cleaner injury report, providing the Mystics with a preparation and continuity advantage.

In a game lined between 5.5 and 6.5 points, even one rotation absence can materially affect the handicap. Portland’s defensive struggles become more difficult to correct when the available lineup is shortened.

Al Ninos Pick

Washington Mystics Against the Spread

Al Ninos backed Washington based primarily on the contrast in recent defensive performance.

Portland had lost five of seven games while allowing opponents to score efficiently. Its road defense had been especially vulnerable, with the Fire surrendering approximately 95 points per game and allowing close to 47 percent shooting.

Those figures are difficult to overcome in a 40-minute WNBA game. Portland had also been outscored by approximately 8.5 points per game on the road, a margin greater than the available spread.

Washington entered in better defensive form, holding recent opponents near 39 percent shooting and approximately 26 percent from three-point range. That level of resistance gives the Mystics a strong chance to create separation during Portland’s weaker offensive stretches.

Al Ninos’ Pick: Washington Mystics against the spread

Tony T Pick

Washington Mystics Against the Spread

Tony T also supported Washington, reinforcing the professional consensus on the favorite.

The handicap is built on Washington’s defensive improvement, Portland’s poor road form and the Mystics’ healthier roster. Washington does not need an elite offensive performance to cover if its defense forces Portland into inefficient possessions.

Line shopping is especially important. Washington -5.5 is materially stronger than Washington -6.5 because a six-point Mystics victory would cover the first number but lose against the second.

Tony T’s Pick: Washington Mystics -5.5

Morning Show Chat Picks

The chat was divided on both the side and total.

Lex Steele preferred the Washington moneyline, reducing the risk of losing against the spread in exchange for a more expensive price.

Bakari backed Portland +5.5, taking the underdog position against the professional handicapper consensus.

Lasda Vegas also supported Portland +5.5 but paired that position with the game over 163.5.

Ghost Wins Sports leaned under 163.5, expecting Washington’s defense to control the pace and limit Portland’s scoring.

The contradictory total opinions accurately reflect the central question in this matchup. Washington’s defensive form points toward the under, while Portland’s poor defense creates a path for the Mystics to push the game over by themselves.

New York Liberty at Dallas Wings

Game Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Sportsbook Odds Card

Point Spread

New York Liberty: +1 to +2.5

Dallas Wings: -1 to -2.5

Moneyline

New York Liberty: +100 to +127

Dallas Wings: -117 to -140

Game Total

Over 175.5 to 177.5: approximately -110 to -127

Under 175.5 to 177.5: approximately -106 to +122

Injury Report

New York entered the game with several significant absences, including frontcourt and rotation personnel.

Dallas was also dealing with injuries, but the Wings had handled their recent schedule more effectively and entered with substantially stronger momentum.

The Liberty’s road performance represents the more important issue. New York had struggled to cover away from home and was not producing the same defensive consistency expected from a contender.

Chris Adkins Pick

Dallas Wings -1.5

Chris Adkins backed Dallas at home and laid the short number.

New York entered the matchup on a three-game losing streak and had failed to cover each of those contests. The Liberty had also struggled against the spread on the road, creating concerns about their ability to respond in another away game.

Dallas had won five consecutive games and covered three of those five. The Wings’ recent form creates a substantial contrast against a Liberty team moving in the opposite direction.

A spread of -1.5 requires Dallas only to win by two points. That is a manageable threshold for the home team, particularly against an opponent that has struggled to close games during its recent slide.

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Dallas Wings -1.5

Tony T Pick

Dallas Wings Against the Spread

Tony T also backed Dallas, creating the strongest side consensus on Thursday’s WNBA card.

The Liberty have been highly inconsistent and have not performed like a trustworthy road favorite or short underdog. Their recent outside shooting has been particularly concerning, with New York converting only around 28 percent of its three-point attempts over its previous five games.

The road defense has also declined. New York had allowed opponents to shoot approximately 47 percent in away games, a dangerous profile against a Dallas team entering in excellent offensive form.

Dallas had won four straight and was shooting approximately 40 percent overall and 35 percent from three over its recent sample. The Wings also demonstrated improved defensive form during the same stretch.

Tony T’s Pick: Dallas Wings -1.5

Bo Dunn Pick

Liberty-Wings Over 176.5

Bo Dunn attacked the total rather than the side, backing the Liberty and Wings to exceed 176.5 points.

The over case begins with New York’s deteriorating road defense. If the Liberty continue allowing opponents to shoot efficiently, Dallas should have an opportunity to reach the upper 80s or low 90s.

The Liberty still possess enough offensive talent to contribute even during a poor overall stretch. A competitive game would also create additional late possessions, intentional fouls and free-throw opportunities.

The primary concern is New York’s recent three-point shooting. An over ticket becomes much more difficult to cash if the Liberty remain below 30 percent from beyond the arc.

Bo’s position is strongest at 175.5 or 176.5. Bettors should avoid chasing the market to 177.5 unless receiving a favorable price.

Bo Dunn’s Pick: Liberty-Wings over 176.5 points

Morning Show Chat Picks

The chat strongly favored Dallas and the over, although the totals were posted at different numbers.

Elijah Ayala backed the Wings, agreeing with Tony T and Chris Adkins.

Bakari supported Liberty-Wings over the total.

Ghost Wins Sports also leaned over but referenced a higher total near 177.

Bo Dunn’s posted chat selection was over 176.5.

The difference between 176.5 and 177.5 can decide the wager. A final score producing exactly 177 points would win at 176.5, push at 177 and lose at 177.5.

Morning Show Consensus Report

Strongest Consensus: Mets-Phillies Over 9.5

The MLB total generated the clearest professional agreement.

Chris Adkins and Al Ninos both selected the over, while Ghost Wins Sports and Bakari supported the same position from the chat.

The total is supported by warm Philadelphia conditions, the power available in both lineups and the possibility that neither Christian Scott nor Aaron Nola completely controls the matchup.

Consensus Rating: Strong

Best Available Position: Over 9.5 at the lowest available price

Strong Side Consensus: Dallas Wings

Tony T and Chris Adkins both backed Dallas against the spread.

Elijah Ayala joined them from the chat, while no major Morning Show handicapper selected the Liberty side.

Dallas holds the momentum advantage, the home-court edge and the stronger recent shooting form. New York’s road defense and against-the-spread record remain significant concerns.

Consensus Rating: Strong

Best Available Position: Dallas Wings -1 or -1.5

Secondary Consensus: Washington Mystics

Tony T and Al Ninos backed Washington against the spread, while Lex Steele preferred the Mystics moneyline.

The concern is market movement. Washington becomes less attractive as the spread increases from -5.5 to -6.5. Portland also attracted support from Bakari and Lasda Vegas.

The professional handicappers agree on Washington, but the chat disagreement prevents this from ranking alongside the MLB over or Dallas side.

Consensus Rating: Moderate

Best Available Position: Washington Mystics -5.5

Divided Market: Fire-Mystics Total

Ghost Wins Sports backed the under, while Lasda Vegas supported the over.

Washington’s recent defense points toward a lower-scoring game, but Portland’s poor defensive numbers create over potential. There is not enough agreement to establish a consensus position.

Consensus Rating: Pass

Contrarian Position: Mets First Five Innings

Al Ninos leaned toward the Mets in the first five innings, while Tony T, Ron Hahn and Scipio preferred Philadelphia for the full game.

The apparent disagreement is not necessarily contradictory. New York could remain competitive through five innings before Philadelphia gains an advantage against the Mets bullpen.

Consensus Rating: Speculative

Best Available Position: Mets first five +0.5 rather than full-game moneyline

Recommended Morning Show Betting Card

Primary Plays

Mets-Phillies over 9.5 runs

The strongest agreement on the board, supported by two professional handicappers and multiple chat contributors.

Dallas Wings -1.5

Dallas holds the better recent form and faces a New York team struggling on the road and against the spread.

Secondary Play

Washington Mystics -5.5

The defensive matchup favors Washington, but bettors should avoid laying an inflated -6.5 when -5.5 is available.

Smaller-Stake Position

Liberty-Wings over 176.5

The over fits Dallas’ recent offense and New York’s weak road defense, but the Liberty’s poor three-point shooting creates more volatility than the strongest consensus plays.

Long-Shot Props

Gabriel Rincones Jr. to hit a home run

Brett Baty to hit a home run

Both should be treated as small speculative wagers rather than standard unit plays.

Tony’s Picks MLB 2026 Leaderboard

The current MLB leaderboard demonstrates the depth of the Tony’s Picks handicapping roster. David Racey remains the overall leader, while Tony Tellez and Chris Adkins occupy the next two positions with outstanding unit production.

1. David Racey

Record: 394-342-20

Units: +2614

Racey continues to combine exceptional volume with long-term profitability. Maintaining a positive return across more than 750 graded MLB selections is an achievement that reflects consistency, durability and disciplined market evaluation.

2. Tony Tellez

Record: 131-99-6

Units: +2164

Tony Tellez has produced one of the most efficient campaigns on the leaderboard. His unit return is close to Racey’s despite working with significantly fewer selections, highlighting elite performance relative to betting volume.

3. Chris Adkins

Record: 120-115-9

Units: +1840

Adkins’ unit production demonstrates why winning percentage alone does not tell the complete story. His ability to identify plus-money opportunities, derivatives and home-run markets has created one of the largest profits on the site.

4. Ramon Scott

Record: 158-130-11

Units: +1362

Scott continues to provide a strong combination of win rate and volume. His performance gives Night Moves viewers another proven MLB betting resource as the season moves into its second half.

5. Shane Mickle

Record: 115-114-5

Units: +1099

Mickle’s near-even win-loss record alongside a four-figure profit is a direct example of intelligent price management. Bettors do not need to win 60 percent of their wagers when they consistently identify advantageous underdog prices.

6. Tony’s Picks VIP

Record: 89-81-4

Units: +987

The VIP card remains close to the 1,000-unit threshold and continues providing members with positive MLB performance.

7. Al Ninos

Record: 118-95-8

Units: +986

Al Ninos combines one of the leaderboard’s stronger win percentages with nearly 1,000 units of profit. His selective approach and willingness to pass on marginal cards have helped preserve long-term value.

8. Kevin Thomas

Record: 70-64-3

Units: +766

Thomas has generated a strong return with moderate volume, keeping him within striking distance of the upper tier.

9. Millz Young

Record: 68-55-4

Units: +643

Young’s winning percentage remains one of the most impressive among the listed handicappers. His combination of selectivity and positive unit production makes him a valuable contributor during the second half.

10. Jevon Jones

Record: 150-149-2

Units: +422

Jones has remained profitable across nearly 300 decisions, demonstrating the value of price discipline during a high-volume baseball season.

11. Tom Reighard

Record: 277-273-12

Units: +354

Reighard rounds out the leaderboard with a positive return across one of the largest betting samples. Surviving and profiting through more than 550 MLB selections requires the ability to adjust as teams, rotations and markets evolve.

Yesterday’s Betting Recap

Argentina Defeats England

Argentina advanced with a 2-1 victory over England after turning a 1-0 deficit into a dramatic win.

The game rewarded bettors holding both teams to score and over two goals. Each position eventually cashed after Argentina increased its attacking pressure and produced the decisive late offense.

The total provided the safer structure for bettors willing to accept the possibility of a push at exactly two goals. Both teams to score required England and Argentina each to find the net, while the total allowed more potential scoring combinations.

Argentina’s willingness to continue attacking after equalizing was decisive. Rather than settling into a defensive shape at 1-1, Argentina pursued the winning goal and was rewarded.

Minnesota Delivers for WNBA Backers

The Morning Show discussion also noted that Minnesota came through for supporters on Wednesday’s WNBA card.

The result continued a productive stretch for several viewers who have focused heavily on the league. WNBA markets can become highly streak-dependent because injuries, travel and lineup changes frequently create significant short-term swings.

That same volatility reinforces the importance of checking final availability reports before betting Thursday’s games.

Final Betting Analysis

Thursday’s compact card should encourage selectivity rather than unnecessary volume.

The Mets-Phillies over 9.5 stands as the strongest consensus selection because Chris Adkins, Al Ninos and multiple chat contributors reached the same conclusion through similar matchup analysis.

Dallas is the strongest side position. Tony T and Chris Adkins agree that the Wings’ recent form, home advantage and offensive momentum create value against a Liberty team struggling on the road.

Washington also deserves consideration, especially at -5.5, but Portland’s support in the chat and the possibility of spread inflation make the Mystics a secondary play.

Bo Dunn’s Liberty-Wings over 176.5 offers another viable position for bettors expecting Dallas to exploit New York’s defensive decline. The wager becomes less attractive if the market reaches 177.5 or higher.

The disciplined card is the over in Philadelphia, Dallas at the shortest available spread and Washington only if -5.5 remains available. Home-run props should be handled with smaller stakes, while the divided Fire-Mystics total is best left alone.