Nick Lagouretos is back on tonyspicks.com with three free MLB plays for Thursday, July 9th, and the theme of his card is easy to spot: he is hunting run production in two spots and trusts exactly one road favorite to win outright. Below is the full breakdown of his selections, with the pitching, form, and matchup notes that shaped every lean.
Nick delivers free picks daily, and today’s slate hands him a menu of vulnerable starters to attack. As always, these are his free selections — his highest-confidence best bets live behind the link in the video description — but there is plenty of value to work with on the free side, so let us get into it.
Braves vs. Pirates — Take the Over (9.5)
Nick opens with the total in Atlanta’s trip to Pittsburgh, and his read starts on the mound. He does not trust either starter in this matchup, pointing to a combined earned-run average north of nine and shaky recent form on both sides. When neither arm is missing bats or limiting damage, backing the total is often the cleanest way to attack a game.
Bryce Elder draws the assignment for the Braves, and the profile is worrying. Nick notes Elder has surrendered roughly 19 runs across his last three starts and has been even more exposed away from home. That is a starter in a deep slump walking into a spot where he needs to be sharp, and the recent sample says he has not been.
Pittsburgh’s starter has been leaking runs too, giving up three or more in six of his last seven outings and looking especially hittable in his home park. Two struggling starters facing each other is the foundation of every over, and Nick sees little reason to expect a sudden reversal from either arm on Thursday afternoon.
The bats support the number as well. By Nick’s accounting, both clubs rank inside the top seven in offense this season, and Pittsburgh has been one of the better lineups against right-handed pitching over the past few weeks. When two productive offenses meet two slumping starters, the math tends to favor the over more often than not.
The weather cooperates too. Mid-80s temperatures and a breeze helping the ball carry nudge routine contact toward the gaps and over the fence, and an early-afternoon start in a hitter’s environment is exactly the setup Nick wants when he plays a total. His first pick is the over 9.5.
Phillies vs. Reds — Philadelphia on the Road
The one side Nick genuinely loves is Philadelphia in Cincinnati, and it is built almost entirely around Jesus Luzardo. The left-hander has been in excellent form, allowing just one run in each of his last three starts, and Nick highlights a strong road profile — a 4-0 record with an ERA hovering around 1.55 away from home this season.
When a pitcher is this locked in on the road, backing his team’s moneyline carries real value, even in a hitter-friendly setting. Luzardo’s ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard travels well, and it takes pressure off a Philadelphia lineup that only needs a handful of runs to make the lead hold up.
The other side of the matchup tilts the lean further. Brady Singer has been roughed up for seven runs across his last two starts combined, and Cincinnati’s lineup has struggled badly against left-handed pitching — Nick pegs the Reds near the bottom of the league in July versus southpaws. That is a difficult look against a lefty pitching as well as Luzardo has been.
The Phillies also bring the more balanced lineup into the series, with the kind of left-right mix that can stress a struggling starter from both sides of the plate. Against a pitcher who has been giving up hard contact, that depth is exactly what turns a close game into a comfortable one for the road side.
Add in a bullpen edge that Nick believes favors Philadelphia in the late innings, and the road moneyline becomes his most confident non-total play of the day. He is comfortable laying it with the Phillies to win outright in a spot where the pitching matchup clearly points their way.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres — Back the Over (8.5)
Nick’s third pick returns to run scoring, this time in San Diego. He is fading both starters again, citing a combined ERA well into double digits and rough recent stretches for each arm. Merrill Kelly has been tagged repeatedly over his last handful of starts for Arizona, and the trend has not been kind heading into this one.
San Diego’s starter has not offered much resistance either, carrying an ERA near 6.75 across his last three appearances by Nick’s read. When both starters are running ERAs like that over a meaningful sample, the total becomes the path of least resistance, and Nick is happy to take the points on the over.
Recent history seals it for him. These same two clubs combined for 14 runs just a day earlier, and Nick expects another high-scoring affair with both pitching staffs vulnerable. Familiarity often works in the hitters’ favor in a quick turnaround, since lineups have just seen many of these arms and carry that timing into the next game.
Even with a cooler evening forecast by the bay, the pitching mismatch on paper points up. San Diego and Arizona both have enough thump to punish mistakes, and with two starters this shaky, Nick does not need a track meet — just a normal night of traffic on the bases. His play is the over 8.5 runs.
Pitching Snapshot Across the Slate
Tie the card together and a pattern jumps out: five of the six starters Nick discusses are either slumping badly or carrying inflated recent ERAs. The lone exception is Luzardo, and that is precisely why the Phillies moneyline is the only side on the ticket. Everywhere else, the pitching is the reason to expect runs.
That consistency is what makes the card easy to read. Nick is not chasing narratives or reacting to one bad start — he is targeting arms with multi-start trends of allowing damage, then pairing them with offenses that have shown they can capitalize. It is a repeatable framework rather than a collection of hunches.
How the Card Comes Together
Nick’s Thursday slate leans heavily on pitching vulnerability. Two of his three plays are overs rooted in the same logic — starters who are not missing bats, offenses that can punish mistakes, and weather that does not suppress the ball. It is a disciplined, repeatable way to attack a day full of shaky rotations.
The Phillies moneyline is the outlier, and it is the one spot where Nick trusts a starter enough to back a side outright. That contrast is a feature, not a bug: he is willing to ride a total when neither arm can be trusted, and to lay a price only when one pitcher clearly separates himself from the field.
Betting Angles and Bankroll Notes
For bettors following along, the sequencing matters. The Braves-Pirates over is an early-window play, while the Phillies moneyline and the Diamondbacks-Padres over run later, giving the card a natural spread across the day rather than three plays that all settle at once.
Nick’s recommendation, as always, is to treat these as individual straight plays sized to your own bankroll rather than forcing them into a single parlay. Totals in particular can move quickly as lineups and weather firm up, so shopping for the best number across books is worth the extra minute before first pitch.
Final Word
Two overs and a road favorite give Nick a clean, coherent Thursday card: attack the games with bad pitching, and trust the one arm on the slate who has earned it. For the full reasoning in Nick’s own words, the video above walks through all three selections from top to bottom.
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