Tony’s Picks Morning Show Betting Preview for July 9, 2026
The Thursday card brings a compact but loaded betting board, with a 13-game MLB slate, three featured WNBA matchups and one World Cup quarterfinal selection from the Morning Show chat.
The strongest tone of the show came through on underdog baseball spots, WNBA rest-and-injury angles, and several totals built around vulnerable starting pitching. Tony T leaned into recent team form, bullpen trends and situational pricing, while Al Ninos attacked totals and first-five value.
Morning Show Consensus Report
Strongest Consensus Angles
Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line vs Atlanta Braves
Tony T liked Pittsburgh at plus money, and the chat showed support from Scipio and Las Vegas. Al Ninos preferred the over, but also acknowledged Atlanta was not a must-bet side.
Kansas City Royals Money Line vs New York Mets
Tony T, Al Ninos and multiple chat contributors landed on Kansas City as the live underdog. The fade centered on Sean Manaea and the Mets’ recent offensive issues.
Philadelphia Phillies Run Line vs Cincinnati Reds
Tony T, Bakari, Ron Hahn and Scipio all showed support for Philadelphia on the run line behind the starting pitching edge with Luzardo over Singer.
Seattle Storm + Points vs Atlanta Dream
Tony T and the chat aligned on Seattle plus the points. The handicap focused on Atlanta’s losing streak, poor recent shooting and Seattle’s defensive cover profile.
Phoenix Mercury Money Line vs Indiana Fever
Tony T and Bakari agreed on Phoenix, with the Fever on a back-to-back and missing Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston.
Premium Sportsbook Card Layout
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds Tile
Braves ML -121
Pirates ML +101
Spread: Braves -1.5 +129 / Pirates +1.5 -154
Total: 9.5
Over -112 / Under -107
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
Al Ninos: Over 9.5
Chat: Pirates Money Line, Braves Run Line, Pirates/Over lean
Pitching Matchup Card
Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller
Tony T attacked this game through recent offensive form. Atlanta has been in a prolonged slump at the plate, while Pittsburgh has shown stronger contact quality and better slugging over the recent sample.
Al Ninos preferred the total, pointing to both starters as capable of giving up traffic and crooked innings. Elder’s early-season form has cooled, while Keller has also shown enough volatility to make the over playable.
The Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
Over 9.5
Kansas City Royals at New York Mets
Odds Tile
Royals ML +128
Mets ML -152
Spread: Royals +1.5 -168 / Mets -1.5 +140
Total: 9.5
Over +105 / Under -126
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Kansas City Royals Money Line
Al Ninos: Kansas City Royals Money Line
Chat: Royals Money Line
Pitching Matchup Card
Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea
This was one of the cleaner agreement spots on the show. Al Ninos gave Kansas City the starting pitching edge with Wacha over Manaea, while Tony T noted the Royals’ stronger recent hitting profile and the Mets’ continued offensive struggles.
The concern with the Mets is not just price. Manaea has been difficult to trust, and the recent bullpen comparison also leaned toward Kansas City. At plus money, the Royals fit the Morning Show’s underdog profile.
The Pick
Kansas City Royals Money Line
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Odds Tile
Yankees ML +134
Rays ML -168
Spread: Yankees +1.5 -154 / Rays -1.5 +124
Total: 7.5
Over -116 / Under -107
Morning Show Picks
Al Ninos: Under 7.5
Chat: Rays Money Line, Rays Run Line, Rasmussen to record win, Tampa Bay Under
Pitching Matchup Card
Ryan Yarbrough/opening setup vs Drew Rasmussen
The Rays were priced aggressively, and Tony T made it clear he liked Tampa Bay but did not want to chase the number or lay the run line with a team that plays so many close games.
Al Ninos moved to the under, expecting Tampa Bay pitching to control the matchup and noting that Rasmussen has been in strong form. The Yankees’ offense has gone quiet, making the under the cleaner betting angle than a heavy favorite side.
The Pick
Under 7.5
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles
Odds Tile
Cubs ML +108
Orioles ML -126
Spread: Cubs +1.5 -180 / Orioles -1.5 +157
Total: 9.5
Over -120 / Under +100
Morning Show Picks
Al Ninos: Over 9.5
Chat: Cubs Money Line, Under lean
Pitching Matchup Card
Cubs starter concern vs Baltimore starter volatility
Al Ninos leaned over in Baltimore, citing two starters capable of giving up runs and a setup where both bullpens could be forced into work.
Tony T stayed away because of the Cubs’ pitching concern, especially with Peterson’s ugly ERA profile mentioned during the show. The metrics around Chicago may point one direction, but the mound matchup made this a harder side to trust.
The Pick
Over 9.5
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Odds Tile
Guardians ML -131
Twins ML +105
Spread: Guardians -1.5 +129 / Twins +1.5 -154
Total: 8.5
Over -112 / Under -107
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Minnesota Twins Money Line
Al Ninos: Cleveland Guardians Money Line
Chat: Twins Money Line
Pitching Matchup Card
Gavin Williams vs Bailey Ober
This was a split opinion game. Al Ninos gave Cleveland the starting pitching edge with Williams and saw the road favorite price as reasonable.
Tony T preferred Minnesota at plus money, pointing to Cleveland’s weak recent hitting against right-handed pitching and the Twins’ stronger offensive production in the recent sample. The absence of Jose Ramirez also made laying price with Cleveland less appealing.
The Pick
Minnesota Twins Money Line
Cleveland Guardians Money Line
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
Odds Tile
Red Sox ML +104
White Sox ML -108
Spread: Red Sox -1.5 +163 / White Sox +1.5 -170
Total: 9.5
Over +117 / Under -127
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Boston Red Sox Money Line
Al Ninos: Over 9.5 lean
Chat: Red Sox Money Line, White Sox Money Line lean
Pitching Matchup Card
Patrick Sandoval return vs Anthony Kay
Tony T backed Boston to finish the sweep, noting the Red Sox have hit left-handed pitching well while the White Sox continue to struggle to create enough traffic on the bases.
Al Ninos leaned over because Patrick Sandoval was returning from injury and Anthony Kay did not inspire trust. The pitching uncertainty makes runs attractive, but Tony’s official direction was Boston.
The Pick
Boston Red Sox Money Line
Over 9.5 lean
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Odds Tile
Athletics ML +118
Tigers ML -138
Spread: Athletics +1.5 -170 / Tigers -1.5 +149
Total: 9
Over -105 / Under -115
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Detroit Tigers Money Line
Al Ninos: Over 9
Chat: Tigers Money Line, Tigers Run Line, Under lean
Pitching Matchup Card
Athletics opener/Jack Perkins bulk setup vs Detroit starter
Tony T liked Detroit, focusing on Oakland’s road profile and Detroit’s strong home results against weaker bullpen teams.
Al Ninos preferred the over, with wind blowing out and both pitching staffs capable of allowing runs. The Athletics’ opener setup also adds volatility, which supports the run environment.
The Pick
Detroit Tigers Money Line
Over 9
Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
Odds Tile
Mariners ML -142
Marlins ML +120
Spread: Mariners -1.5 +115 / Marlins +1.5 -135
Total: 8
Over -110 / Under -110
Morning Show Picks
Al Ninos: Under 8, Mariners lean
Chat: Mariners Money Line, Mariners Run Line, Under
Pitching Matchup Card
Bryce Miller vs Miami starter
Al Ninos leaned Seattle because Miller has looked sharp, but he respected Miami enough to avoid making it a strong side recommendation.
The under became the sharper route. If Miami’s starter can hold up early, the dome setting and Miller’s recent form point toward a lower-scoring game.
The Pick
Under 8
Seattle Mariners lean
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Odds Tile
Phillies ML -150
Reds ML +144
Spread: Phillies -1.5 +104 / Reds +1.5 -108
Total: 9.5
Over +104 / Under -108
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Philadelphia Phillies Run Line
Chat: Phillies Run Line, Reds Money Line from Kendrick Molo
Pitching Matchup Card
Jesus Luzardo vs Brady Singer
Tony T backed the Phillies run line behind Luzardo, whose road profile has been excellent. The Phillies’ recent offensive production also stood above Cincinnati’s weaker batting and slugging numbers.
Ron Hahn and Scipio also supported the Phillies run line, creating one of the clearer chat-backed positions of the baseball card.
The Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Odds Tile
Brewers ML -131
Cardinals ML +119
Spread: Brewers -1.5 +130 / Cardinals +1.5 -150
Total: 8.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
Chat: Brewers Money Line, Brewers Run Line
Pitching Matchup Card
Logan Henderson vs Andre Pallante
Tony T looked for a Logan Henderson bounce-back and trusted the Brewers’ better recent offensive and bullpen form.
The Cardinals have struggled against higher-end National League starters, and Milwaukee’s road profile made the favorite price playable.
The Pick
Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Odds Tile
Angels ML +122
Rangers ML -127
Spread: Angels +1.5 -178 / Rangers -1.5 +170
Total: 7.5
Over +127 / Under -133
Morning Show Picks
Chat: Rangers lean
Pitching Matchup Card
Angels starter vs Nathan Eovaldi
This game did not draw a strong official Morning Show pick. The chat leaned Texas behind Eovaldi, but the price and total suggested a tighter game than a simple favorite play.
The Pick
Rangers lean
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Odds Tile
Diamondbacks ML +108
Padres ML -126
Spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 -186 / Padres -1.5 +170
Total: 8.5
Over -117 / Under +113
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
Al Ninos: Over 8.5
Chat: Padres Run Line
Pitching Matchup Card
Arizona starter vs San Diego starter
Tony T preferred Arizona at plus money, citing the Diamondbacks’ road divisional hitting and San Diego’s weaker home divisional offensive form.
Al Ninos preferred the over, pointing to two starters who have struggled enough to create run-scoring chances. This is a split card: Tony saw value on the underdog, while Al Ninos attacked the total.
The Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
Over 8.5
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Odds Tile
Rockies ML +114
Giants ML -142
Spread: Rockies +1.5 -191 / Giants -1.5 +159
Total: 8.5
Over +101 / Under -126
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Colorado Rockies Money Line
Al Ninos: Rockies lean, Over lean
Chat: Colorado Money Line, Giants Run Line
Pitching Matchup Card
Ryan Feltner vs Carson Whisenhunt
Tony T backed Colorado as a live underdog, pointing to the Rockies’ improved road hitting and competitive series against the Dodgers.
Al Ninos also leaned Rockies and the over, noting the chilly San Francisco weather but enough offensive upside to question the low total.
The Pick
Colorado Rockies Money Line
Over 8.5 lean
WNBA Betting Preview
Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream
Odds Tile
Storm ML +400
Dream ML -550
Spread: Storm +9.5 -102 / Dream -9.5 -118
Total: 167.5
Over -110 / Under -110
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Seattle Storm + Points
Chat: Storm + Points, Storm Money Line sprinkle
Injury Card
Seattle: Taina Mair out
Atlanta: Brionna Jones out, Aaliyah Nye questionable
Tony T backed Seattle plus the points, noting that Atlanta has lost five straight and failed to cover six of seven. The Dream’s recent shooting has been poor, and their defense has allowed opponents to get clean looks.
Seattle has covered five of seven behind better defensive play, and the Storm’s recent offensive efficiency has been strong enough to stay inside a big number.
The Pick
Seattle Storm +9.5
Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury
Odds Tile
Fever ML +100
Mercury ML -120
Spread: Fever +1.5 -115 / Mercury -1.5 -105
Total: 173
Over -105 / Under -115
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Phoenix Mercury Money Line
Chat: Mercury Money Line
Injury Card
Indiana: Caitlin Clark out, Aliyah Boston out
Phoenix: Mack out, Thomas probable, Whitcomb probable
Featured Analysts & Cappers
Read free daily matchup breakdowns and track documented betting records.
Tony T made Phoenix a rest-and-availability play. Indiana is on a back-to-back, Clark is out, Boston is out, and the Fever were poor in the loss to Los Angeles despite the Sparks missing key players.
Phoenix has the rest edge and the healthier core. At a short money-line price, the Mercury were one of Tony’s cleaner WNBA positions.
The Pick
Phoenix Mercury Money Line
Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire
Odds Tile
Aces ML -420
Portland ML +320
Spread: Aces -8.5 -110 / Portland +8.5 -110
Total: 175.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Morning Show Picks
Tony T: Portland Fire + Points
Chat: Portland interest
Injury Card
Las Vegas: Passat out, Barker out, Dana Evans doubtful, A’ja Wilson questionable
Portland: Fegan out, Sam Wilson questionable
Tony T took Portland plus the points, pointing to the Fire’s two straight covers and strong home shooting profile.
Las Vegas has missed the cover in five of seven, has struggled on the glass, and has allowed too much defensive efficiency. With A’ja Wilson still questionable, Portland’s home-court energy and shooting form make the points attractive.
The Pick
Portland Fire +8.5
World Cup Quarterfinal Betting Preview
Morocco vs France
Odds Tile
Morocco ML +475
France ML -475
Draw +290
Spread: Morocco +0.5 +130 / France -0.5 -190
Total: 2.5
Over -102 / Under -125
Morning Show Chat Pick
Bakari: France correct score 2-1 at +650
The chat’s World Cup angle was France to win 2-1. The price reflects France as a heavy favorite, but the correct-score angle expects Morocco to find one goal while France’s attacking quality eventually separates.
The Pick
France correct score 2-1
Parlay and Promo Card
Al Ninos Parlay
Royals First Five Run Line
Mariners Money Line
Cubs/Orioles Over
Tony T Parlay
Phoenix Mercury Money Line
Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
Minnesota Twins Money Line
The Al Ninos card leaned into first-five value, Seattle stability and a Baltimore run environment. Tony T’s parlay was built around a WNBA rest edge with Phoenix, plus two MLB underdogs in Pittsburgh and Minnesota.
Recap Leaderboard and Yesterday’s Games
Al Ninos entered the show off a 2-2 day, losing only juice, while continuing a strong documented 2026 run at Tony’s Picks.
Tony T reported a 3-0 day yesterday and noted that he hit the leaderboard, with today’s personal card including two MLB plays and one WNBA play available at Tony’s Picks.
The show also highlighted Al Ninos at +1,910 units in private documented results for 2026, with his Grand Slam and three-pack available on the board.
Final Betting Card
MLB Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
Braves/Pirates Over 9.5
Kansas City Royals Money Line
Yankees/Rays Under 7.5
Cubs/Orioles Over 9.5
Minnesota Twins Money Line
Cleveland Guardians Money Line
Boston Red Sox Money Line
Red Sox/White Sox Over 9.5 lean
Detroit Tigers Money Line
Athletics/Tigers Over 9
Mariners/Marlins Under 8
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
Diamondbacks/Padres Over 8.5
Colorado Rockies Money Line
Rockies/Giants Over 8.5 lean
WNBA Picks
Seattle Storm +9.5
Phoenix Mercury Money Line
Portland Fire +8.5
World Cup Pick
France correct score 2-1
The card’s sharpest themes are clear: fade the Mets with Manaea, trust Philadelphia’s starting pitching edge, buy Seattle as a large WNBA underdog, and respect Phoenix’s rest advantage against a short-handed Fever team.
