Chris is back from tonyspicks.com with his home run Hit List for Thursday, July 9th, and he is riding momentum. He cashed three home runs on Wednesday — one straight off the video with Pete Alonso, plus two more from the additional plays he dropped in the comments. Today he stacks seven left-handed bats that all profile well against right-handed starters who have been leaving the ball over the plate.
The formula is the same one that has been working: target hitters with real power against righties, then find the starter who has been prone to giving up home runs to that side. Below are all seven names on the Hit List, with the matchup, pitch mix, and ballpark notes behind each one.
Ryan O’Hearn — Pirates vs. Braves
The early game gets us going at 12:35 Eastern in Pittsburgh, 84 degrees with the wind blowing out at six miles an hour. Ryan O’Hearn steps in against Bryce Elder, who has already allowed seven home runs to left-handed batters this season. O’Hearn has 12 home runs off right-handed pitching, and with Elder throwing his four-seam fastball 31 percent of the time — a pitch O’Hearn has taken deep seven times — the profile lines up.
Juan Soto — Mets vs. Royals
Next up at 1:10 Eastern, 82 degrees with the wind really moving at 15 miles an hour out to the outfield. Juan Soto draws Michael Wacha, who has surrendered seven home runs to lefties. Soto has crushed 16 home runs off right-handers this year, including eight off the four-seam fastball Wacha leans on 31 percent of the time. Soto has also gone deep against Wacha before, and that wind only helps.
Ben Rice — Yankees vs. Rays
The Yankees and Rays play at 1:10 Eastern in a dome, so weather is not a factor here — this one is pure matchup. Ben Rice takes on Drew Rasmussen, who has allowed eight home runs to left-handed batters. Rice brings serious pop with 19 home runs off right-handed pitching, and 12 of those have come against the four-seam fastball that Rasmussen throws 31 percent of the time.
Cody Clemens — Twins vs. Guardians
At 1:40 Eastern in Minnesota, 80 degrees with the wind out at six, Cody Clemens gets the nod against Gavin Williams. Williams has been vulnerable to lefties, allowing 10 home runs to that side. Clemens has 14 home runs off right-handers, six of them against the four-seam fastball Williams uses 26 percent of the time. It is a favorable spot for the left-handed bat.
Brandon Marsh — Phillies vs. Reds
Into the night games, Philadelphia visits Cincinnati at 7:10 Eastern, 84 degrees with the wind out at five. Brandon Marsh faces Brady Singer, who has been tagged for 14 home runs by left-handed batters — the highest total on today’s list. Marsh has 12 home runs against right-handed pitching. Singer leans on a slider 33 percent of the time, and Marsh has three home runs off the pitch, so the small-park backdrop only adds to the appeal.
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Garrett Mitchell — Brewers vs. Cardinals
At 7:45 Eastern in St. Louis, it is a hot one at 90 degrees with the wind out at five. Garrett Mitchell steps in against Andre Pallante, who has allowed five home runs to lefties. Mitchell has eight home runs off right-handers, and Pallante throws his four-seam fastball a heavy 49 percent of the time — the most fastball-reliant arm on the board. Mitchell has two home runs off that pitch type and the heat helps the ball travel.
Gavin Sheets — Padres vs. Diamondbacks
The nightcap goes at 9:40 Eastern in San Diego, 70 degrees with the wind blowing left to right at six. Gavin Sheets closes the Hit List against Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 12 home runs to left-handed batters. Sheets has 14 home runs off right-handed pitching, six of them against the four-seam fastball Kelly throws 30 percent of the time. Sheets has also homered off Kelly before, giving this one a familiar edge.
How to Bet the Hit List
Chris is emphatic on this point: play these as straight bets, not a giant parlay. Home run props are volatile, and stringing seven together asks for perfection. Betting them individually means you still profit when a few of the seven connect, and each one is priced at plus money, so the straight-bet approach keeps the math on your side.
He will also update the comments under the video as bats connect and add extra names from games he did not have data for at video time. Turning on notifications is the easiest way to catch those late additions before first pitch.
Final Word
Seven left-handed bats, seven right-handed starters who have been giving up home runs to that side, and a mix of warm weather and helpful wind at several stops: that is the Hit List for Thursday, July 9th. Ryan O’Hearn, Juan Soto, Ben Rice, Cody Clemens, Brandon Marsh, Garrett Mitchell, and Gavin Sheets are all in — watch the video above for the full breakdown.
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