The crew is back with a two-game WNBA card for Tuesday night, July 7, and Ron Crawford, Justin Staxel and Bo Dunn are all locked in on the sides and totals. There are just two games on the slate, but both offer clear angles: a live road dog in Dallas and a home favorite in Phoenix that the room believes the market is still underrating. Here is the full breakdown of both matchups with the StatSharp trends baked in.
Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty
The headline game sends the Dallas Wings into Brooklyn to face a New York Liberty team riding high. The Liberty are laying 5.5 points as a home favorite, with the total sitting at 175.5 after opening around 174.5. New York is coming off a statement stretch, having just beaten Minnesota 99-86 and Las Vegas 93-85 in back-to-back marquee wins, and the market is treating them like a team that has flipped a switch.
That is exactly where the value lives on the other side. The crew’s read is that this is a classic sandwich spot for New York. The Liberty just poured everything into beating Minnesota, and they have a rematch with that same Minnesota club looming on Saturday. Sandwiched in between is this Dallas game, the kind of letdown spot where a good team can come out flat against an opponent it is supposed to handle easily.
StatSharp Snapshot: Dallas vs New York
The StatSharp betting page frames the play well. The Dallas Wings sit at 13-8 straight up but just 9-12 against the spread and 10-11 to the total, averaging 88.3 points per game. New York checks in at 14-8 straight up as the home chalk. The Wings are the more live underdog than their ATS record suggests, especially in a get-back spot where they are getting more than a possession-and-a-half.
Justin summed up the reasoning: any time Dallas is a dog getting more than a couple of possessions, he wants the points. The Wings have the scoring punch to hang around, and New York has a real motivational hurdle to clear on a short-rest turnaround. The play here is the Dallas Wings plus the 5.5. If you want to sprinkle the money line at plus money, that is a defensible dart, but the points are the cleaner side.
Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury
The nightcap features the Chicago Sky heading to the desert to face the Phoenix Mercury. Phoenix is laying 3.5 points at home, with the total climbing to 174.5 from an open of 172.5. The Mercury are coming off another win over Seattle and have quietly been playing much better than they did to start the season, while the Sky arrive off a 98-90 overtime loss to Las Vegas.
The room is unified on Phoenix here. Justin’s take is that the books are still pricing the Mercury like a team on the way down when the eye test and recent results say they are trending up. Even with the caveat that a couple of those wins came against a Seattle club they match up well with, Phoenix has been covering, and at a modest 3.5-point number the value is on the home side.
StatSharp Snapshot: Chicago vs Phoenix
StatSharp shows Chicago at 6-14 straight up but a competitive 10-10 against the spread, and notably 13-7 to the over, averaging 86.6 points. Phoenix sits at 8-13 straight up and is priced at -165 on the money line. The Sky’s strong over trend and the Mercury’s improving form both feed the same conclusion: this game should be played at pace, and Phoenix is the more reliable side to back at a short number.
The crew also flagged a banged-up Chicago rotation, with multiple rotation pieces sidelined. Depleted depth against a Mercury team that has found its identity is a tough spot for the Sky to spring a road upset. The play is the Phoenix Mercury minus the 3.5 at home.
Recent Form: Who Is Trending
The form lines add color to both plays. New York’s last four reads as two losses followed by two big wins, the latter pair coming against Las Vegas and Minnesota. That is genuinely impressive, but it also means the Liberty are running hot and due for a natural letdown, exactly the regression spot bettors look to fade when a team gets a soft-looking home number against a lesser opponent.
Phoenix, on the other hand, has strung together the kind of results that suggest a real turnaround. The Mercury handled Seattle again, picked up a wild 111-109 win over Indiana, and have been far more competitive than their overall record indicates. A team playing its best basketball of the season, at home, giving a field-goal-and-a-half, is a profile the crew is happy to back against a reeling Chicago side.
Injuries and Rotation Notes
Availability tilts the Chicago-Phoenix game further toward the Mercury. The Sky are missing multiple rotation players, thinning out a group that was already grinding after an overtime loss to Las Vegas. When a short-handed team travels on a quick turnaround into a hostile building, the margin for error shrinks, and that is a big part of why the room is comfortable laying the 3.5 with Phoenix rather than taking the points with Chicago.
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In the opener, the key situational note is the schedule spot rather than the injury report. New York is healthy but mentally and physically taxed from its recent grind, with another Minnesota showdown circled for Saturday. Dallas, meanwhile, only has to look ahead to a rematch with Toronto it already handled, so the Wings have every reason to arrive focused and hungry as the underdog.
Betting Trends to Know
Two StatSharp trends stand out. First, Chicago’s 13-7 record to the over is one of the loudest totals signals on the board and directly supports Bo’s over lean in the nightcap. Second, Dallas being 9-12 ATS can look like a fade on the surface, but a chunk of those losses came as a favorite; as a live road dog getting a generous number, the Wings profile far better than that headline record implies. Reading the context behind the raw ATS mark is what turns it into a plus play.
Totals: Both Games Lean Over
Bo Dunn’s angle ties the card together on the totals. He loves the over in the Chicago-Phoenix game at 174.5, pointing to two teams that play fast and defend inconsistently, plus Chicago’s league-leading over trend. New York’s home totals have been a touch shakier, but the Liberty just dropped 99 on one of the league’s best defenses, so the Dallas game carries some over appeal at 175.5 as well, particularly if Dallas keeps it close and forces New York to keep scoring.
How the Games Could Play Out
The likeliest script in Brooklyn is a competitive game that New York wins outright but does not run away with, which is precisely why the Wings plus the points is the target rather than the Dallas money line. In the desert, expect an up-tempo track meet where Phoenix’s veterans control the closing stretch against a thin Chicago rotation, pushing the total toward the over while the Mercury cover the modest number. Both outcomes fit the angles the crew laid out.
The Full Card
Adding it up, the crew’s sides and totals for Tuesday, July 7 are the Dallas Wings plus 5.5 as a live road dog in a Liberty letdown spot, and the Phoenix Mercury minus 3.5 at home against a short-handed Chicago team. Bo’s headline total is the over 174.5 in Chicago-Phoenix, with the Dallas-New York over 175.5 as a secondary lean. Two games, several angles, and a clear direction on each.
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