Chris Adkins is back with his Home Run Hit List for Thursday, July 2, and the free video breakdown for tonyspicks.com comes off a red-hot Wednesday that cashed three homers from his supplemental calls in Sam Antonacci, Hunter Goodman, and Freddie Freeman. It is a short card with early starts across the board, and Chris has seven home run picks lined up, each built on his signature blend of matchup history, pitch-type damage, and weather.
As always, Chris’ guidance on structure is to play these as straight bets rather than parlays. Every pick returns plus money on its own, so a single connection pays for the card, and chasing the all-seven parlay is exactly the kind of greed that turns a winning day into a losing ticket. Here is the full slate, game by game, with the reasoning behind each call.
Brandon Marsh, Phillies (vs Jared Jones, Pirates)
The 12:35 PM ET matinee in Philadelphia brings hundred-degree heat and a nine-mile-per-hour outblowing wind, the best home run weather on the entire slate. Chris follows the hot bat with Marsh, who owns previous damage against Jones including a home run head-to-head. Jones has surrendered four homers to left-handed batters, throws his four-seamer 39 percent of the time, and Marsh has four home runs against that pitch type this season plus twelve against right-handed pitching overall.
Kyle Stowers, Marlins (vs Michael Lorenzen, Rockies)
Coors Field at 3:10 PM ET, 91 degrees, wind out at eight. Lorenzen has allowed nine home runs to left-handed batters this season, the worst lefty vulnerability on today’s card, and Stowers brings seven homers off right-handed pitching into the thin air of Denver. Lorenzen’s four-seam usage sits at 23 percent, a pitch Stowers has already taken deep twice this year. Altitude, heat, platoon edge, and pitch-type match: this is the chalk play of the day.
Colson Montgomery, White Sox (vs Slade Cecconi, Guardians)
The 6:40 PM ET start in Cleveland runs 96 degrees with wind blowing out at seven. Montgomery has homered off Cecconi in previous meetings and brings fourteen home runs against right-handed pitching, the highest righty-damage total on today’s list. Cecconi has allowed six homers to left-handed batters and leans on a cutter-fastball mix; Montgomery has five home runs against each of those pitch types, a rare double-barreled match on pitch-type damage.
Alec Burleson, Cardinals (vs Hurston Waldrep, Braves)
Atlanta at 7:15 PM ET, 91 degrees, wind drifting left to right. Burleson’s twelve home runs off right-handed pitching set the floor, and the pitch-type angle does the rest: Waldrep throws his cutter on 26 percent of his pitches, and Burleson has two homers against the cutter this season. A young starter with wobbling command against a veteran lefty bat that punishes mistakes in the middle of the zone is a classic Hit List profile.
Jonathan Aranda, Rays (vs Stephen Kolek, Royals)
Kansas City at 7:40 PM ET brings 91 degrees and the strongest wind of the night card, blowing out at eleven. Kolek has allowed four home runs to lefty batters, and Aranda counters with twelve off right-handed pitching. The four-seamer comes 33 percent of the time, and Aranda has four homers against that pitch type. Chris added a side note for the value hunters: he would not blame anybody for taking Aranda at the friendlier alternative lines either.
Dominic Canzone, Mariners (vs Angels RHP)
The 9:40 PM ET start in Seattle is the coolest game on the card at 66 degrees, but the matchup math carries it. The Angels’ right-hander has allowed home runs to left-handed batters despite limited exposure, and Canzone brings eleven homers off righties into the matchup. The four-seam fastball arrives a quarter of the time, and Canzone has six home runs against that pitch, the highest single-pitch-type damage number on today’s entire list.
Andy Pages, Dodgers (vs Randy Vasquez, Padres)
The 10:10 PM ET nightcap at Dodger Stadium closes the card. Pages owns previous damage against Vasquez with two career home runs head-to-head, and the platoon numbers stack: Vasquez has allowed seven homers to right-handed batters, Pages has twelve against right-handed pitching, and the four-seamer comes 31 percent of the time, a pitch Pages has taken deep three times this season. History, platoon, and pitch-type all align on the finisher.
Recap and How to Play It
The full Thursday card: Brandon Marsh, Kyle Stowers, Colson Montgomery, Alec Burleson, Jonathan Aranda, Dominic Canzone, and Andy Pages, seven bats, seven plus-money tickets. Chris will be updating the card in his video comments as picks connect, along with supplemental calls from the games that lacked data at recording time, the same overflow channel that produced all three of Wednesday’s winners.
Straight bets, not parlays, as Chris reminds the card followers every single day: each pick pays plus money alone, so one or two connections make the day even if the rest stay in the yard. For Chris’ premium best bet of the day and the rest of the Tony’s Picks stable of free daily videos, head to tonyspicks.com and catch the full Thursday lineup.
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