Ron Crawford is back with an NPB Japan League free selection for Wednesday morning, June 24, and he is taking the Yokohama DeNA BayStars on the moneyline at around +150 against the Chunichi Dragons. The pitching matchup clearly favors Yokohama, and even with only basic stats available this time around, the edges line up well enough for Ron to back the BayStars at a plus price.
Matchup Overview
This is a battle of two clubs near the bottom of the NPB standings — Yokohama at 26-39-2 and Chunichi at 25-42-1 — but the head-to-head pitching matchup tilts decisively toward the BayStars. When a clearly superior starter is available at plus money, that is the kind of value Ron looks to capture, even in a game between two struggling teams.
NPB games often hinge on starting pitching and bullpen quality, and on both fronts Yokohama holds the advantage. The offenses are close to even, which means the arms should decide this one — and that points to the BayStars.
Ron noted that the advanced-stat site he normally leans on has been glitchy, so this read is built on the fundamentals: pitching edge, bullpen edge, and a plus-money price on the better-positioned team.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Yokohama sends Katsuki Azuma to the mound, and he has been the clear class of this matchup, carrying a 5-4 record with a sparkling 2.27 ERA. That is front-line run prevention, and against a Chunichi lineup that has struggled to score, Azuma profiles as the kind of arm that can control the game from the first pitch.
Chunichi counters with a right-hander sporting a 2-3 record and a 5.19 ERA — a significant step down from Azuma. That nearly three-run gap in ERA between the two starters is the single biggest reason Ron is on Yokohama, and it is the kind of mismatch that should make the BayStars favorites rather than plus-money underdogs.
When one starter is preventing runs at an elite clip and the other is bleeding them, the team with the better arm has a built-in edge, and getting that side at +150 is a genuine overlay.
Offensive Splits
The bats are close to even, which actually reinforces the lean toward the better pitching. Yokohama is averaging about 3.58 runs per game with a .644 OPS and a .243 team batting average, modest numbers but slightly ahead of Chunichi’s 3.3 runs per game, .641 OPS, and .232 average.
Neither offense is going to light up the scoreboard, which means a low-scoring game is likely — and low-scoring games favor the team with the superior starter. Azuma’s 2.27 ERA is tailor-made for a tight, pitching-driven contest, and Yokohama’s slight offensive edge could be enough to provide the narrow margin.
Bullpen and Late-Game Outlook
The bullpen comparison also favors Yokohama. When the game gets late, the BayStars’ relief corps has been the more reliable unit, which matters enormously in a contest projected to stay close. If Azuma hands off a lead, Yokohama is well equipped to protect it.
Chunichi, by contrast, faces the tougher path: a struggling starter who may not go deep, followed by a bullpen that has not been a strength. That combination is exactly what Ron expects to break in Yokohama’s favor down the stretch.
Where the Value Is
The Yokohama moneyline at around +150 is the headline play. You are getting a plus price on the team with the far better starter, a slight offensive edge, and the stronger bullpen. In a low-scoring NPB game, those factors should carry more weight than the near-even records suggest.
For Ron, this is a value-driven underdog play: the BayStars should arguably be favored given the pitching mismatch, so a +150 price is too generous to pass up.
Final Prediction
Expect a low-scoring, pitching-driven game in which Azuma controls the tempo, Yokohama’s modest offense scratches across enough runs, and the BayStars’ bullpen protects the late innings against a Chunichi club that should struggle to score. Ron Crawford’s play is the Yokohama DeNA BayStars on the moneyline at +150.
The Pick: Yokohama DeNA BayStars moneyline (+150).
Please remember that all sports betting carries risk. Bet only what you can afford to lose, treat these picks as entertainment and analysis rather than guarantees, and reach out to the 1-800-GAMBLER helpline if gambling ever stops being fun.
Key Numbers That Tip the Edge
The number that drives this play is the ERA gap between the two starters: Yokohama’s Katsuki Azuma at 2.27 against the Chunichi right-hander at 5.19. That is nearly a three-run difference in expected run prevention per nine innings, and in a league where games are frequently decided by one or two runs, an edge that large on the mound is enormous. It is the kind of mismatch that, in most markets, would make the side with the better arm a clear favorite rather than a plus-money underdog.
The offensive numbers, while modest on both sides, also lean Yokohama’s way. The BayStars’ 3.58 runs per game and .644 OPS edge out Chunichi’s 3.3 runs and .641 OPS, and Yokohama’s .243 team average tops Chunichi’s .232. None of these are gaudy figures, but in a projected low-scoring game, even a slim offensive advantage can be the difference, especially when paired with the superior starter.
Put those together and the picture is consistent: Yokohama has the better pitcher, the slightly better offense, and the more dependable bullpen. When all three arrows point the same direction and you are still getting a plus price, the value is clear.
Recent Form and Matchup Context
Both of these clubs have had disappointing seasons, sitting well below .500, so this is not a matchup of contenders. But betting value does not require good teams — it requires a mispriced line, and that is what Ron sees here. The market appears to be pricing this game on the near-even records and perhaps Chunichi’s home setting, rather than on the lopsided pitching matchup that should dictate the outcome.
Low-scoring environments inherently favor the team with the better starter, because fewer total runs mean each run prevented carries more weight. Azuma’s ability to keep Chunichi off the board for five or six innings gives Yokohama’s modest offense time to manufacture the one or two runs that could decide the game. That is the script Ron is betting on.
It is worth noting that without his usual advanced metrics, Ron is leaning on the fundamentals — ERA, runs per game, OPS, and bullpen reliability — but those fundamentals are unusually one-sided in this matchup. When the basic numbers paint this clear a picture, the absence of deeper data does little to change the conclusion.
Bottom Line on Yokohama vs Chunichi
This is a value-driven underdog play built on a decisive pitching edge. Yokohama owns the far superior starter in Azuma, a slight offensive advantage, and the more reliable bullpen, all while being offered at a generous +150 price. Chunichi’s case rests largely on home field, and that is thin support against a near-three-run ERA gap on the mound.
Ron Crawford is on the Yokohama DeNA BayStars moneyline at +150, expecting a low-scoring, pitching-driven game to break in favor of the team with the better arm. In a matchup between two struggling clubs, the side with the clear edge on the mound and a plus-money price is exactly where the value lives.
As a final note for NPB bettors weighing how to play this, the BayStars also offer flexibility: those uncomfortable with a full-game moneyline on a sub-.500 club can consider backing Yokohama on the first five innings, where Azuma’s presence is guaranteed and the pitching edge is at its sharpest. But Ron’s headline recommendation remains the full-game moneyline at +150, trusting both the starter and the bullpen to carry the BayStars across the line in a tight, low-scoring contest. Grab the plus price before the market adjusts to the obvious pitching mismatch.
