Chris Adkins is back with his Wednesday Home Run Hit List for June 24, and the early slate hands bettors a full afternoon of long-ball value before the prime-time games even start. Every name below was chosen for one reason: the matchup between hitter and pitcher points toward a ball leaving the yard. As always, these are free plays from tonyspicks.com, and Chris recommends taking them as straight bets rather than stacking them into a parlay so a single miss does not sink the whole card.
How to Play the Home Run Hit List
Home run props live or die on three inputs: a hitter's power against the handedness he is facing, the pitcher's tendency to surrender homers, and the specific pitch type the hitter punishes. Chris leans on all three for every name, layering in ballpark and wind when the weather actually matters. Because home run odds almost always pay plus money, a hit list does not need to go six-for-six to profit. Cashing even two or three of these straight tickets can flip a day green, which is why discipline on bet sizing beats chasing a long-shot parlay.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs vs. Mets (1:10 ET)
The day opens in warm conditions near 80 degrees with the wind drifting left to right at nine miles per hour. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been swinging a hot bat and draws right-hander Nolan McLean, who has already allowed five home runs to left-handed hitters this season. PCA owns 13 long balls against right-handed pitching, and that platoon edge is exactly what this prop wants in the opener.
The pitch-level data sharpens the angle. McLean throws his four-seam fastball about 20 percent of the time, and Crow-Armstrong has tagged that pitch for five of his home runs. When a hitter with this kind of pull-side power meets a fastball he has already proven he can elevate, the early window is a strong place to begin the card.
Colson Montgomery, White Sox vs. Guardians (2:10 ET)
At 77 degrees with the wind blowing right to left at 13 miles per hour, conditions favor a left-handed pull hitter, and Colson Montgomery fits the bill against Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee. Bibee has surrendered 10 home runs to left-handed batters, the kind of number that flags a hittable arsenal for exactly this type of matchup.
Montgomery carries 13 homers against right-handed pitching, and the pitch breakdown is unusually clean. Bibee mixes a changeup, a four-seam fastball, and a cutter, and Montgomery has taken four home runs off each of those three pitch types. There is no single offering Bibee can lean on to dodge the barrel, which makes this one of the more balanced spots on the list.
Wilson Contreras vs. Kyle Freeland at Coors Field (3:10 ET)
The Coors Field afternoon game is always a magnet for home run props, and with the wind blowing out at seven miles per hour and the temperature at 83 degrees, the conditions only add to the appeal. Wilson Contreras steps in against left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has been vulnerable to right-handed power, allowing 13 home runs to righties this year.
Contreras has five home runs off left-handed pitching, and Freeland throws his four-seam fastball on about 26 percent of his pitches. Contreras has already taken that pitch deep twice. Pair a proven right-handed bat with a fly-ball-prone lefty at altitude, and this is the ballpark-driven spot the hit list is built around.
Jac Caglianone, Royals (6:40 ET)
Caglianone has been one of the hottest bats on the board, and he draws right-hander Griffin Jax, who has allowed six home runs to left-handed hitters. The young slugger owns nine home runs against right-handed pitching, so the handedness matchup again lines up in his favor as the evening slate gets underway in a controlled dome environment.
The fastball data is the headline here. Jax throws his four-seam fastball roughly 20 percent of the time, and Caglianone has crushed that pitch for seven of his home runs. When a red-hot left-handed hitter meets a fastball he punishes that often, it is easy to see why Chris keeps him near the top of the card.
Pirates Power vs. Bryan Woo (6:40 ET)
In the Mariners-Pirates matchup, conditions are mild at 76 degrees with the wind blowing out at four miles per hour. Chris targets a Pittsburgh left-handed bat against Seattle right-hander Bryan Woo, who has allowed six home runs to lefties. The hitter brings 14 home runs against right-handed pitching, one of the heavier raw power totals anywhere on the list.
Woo is a fastball-heavy arm, throwing his four-seamer on about 55 percent of his pitches, and this Pirates bat has eight home runs off that exact pitch. When a pitcher lives in the zone with a fastball that often, a high-volume fastball masher gets plenty of chances to do real damage across a start.
CJ Abrams, Nationals vs. Phillies (6:45 ET)
Chris closes the list with CJ Abrams against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, and there is history here: Abrams has already homered off Nola in a previous meeting. With the wind blowing out at four miles per hour and the temperature at 77 degrees, the conditions cooperate for one more long ball to end the night.
Nola has allowed nine home runs to left-handed hitters this season, and Abrams brings 14 homers against right-handed pitching. Nola throws his four-seam fastball on roughly 27 percent of his pitches, and Abrams has three home runs off that pitch. A left-handed hitter with prior success against this arm is a fitting way to cap the Wednesday card.
Wednesday Home Run Hit List Recap
That makes six straight home run plays for June 24: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Colson Montgomery, Wilson Contreras, Jac Caglianone, the Pirates bat against Bryan Woo, and CJ Abrams. Chris will update the comments on his video as they hit and add more names from games he did not have data for at video time. Remember his core advice: take these as straight bets to bank the plus-money payouts rather than parlaying them, since one or two misses on a stacked ticket can wipe out the whole day.
Please gamble responsibly. These are free, opinion-based picks for entertainment only, and no betting outcome is ever guaranteed. Wager strictly what you can afford to lose, and if gambling stops being fun or starts to feel like a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help and support.
