MLB Picks for June 17, 2026

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds

Start Time and TV: 12:40 PM ET — CINR, SNY

Nolan McLean, Mets: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 4.01. WHIP 1.14. Strikeout rate 27.8%. Walk rate 9.8%. Ground ball rate 46.8%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.9.

Nick Lodolo, Reds: Left Handed. 7 appearances, 7 starts. ERA 5.21. WHIP 1.45. Strikeout rate 17.5%. Walk rate 8.8%. Ground ball rate 39.7%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.9.

Game Summary: McLean brings the better strikeout profile and limits home runs better. Lodolo has struggled with traffic and long-ball risk.

The Pick:

NY is batting .211 against left-handed starters with a .333 slugging percentage. Reds hit .225 against right-handed starters with a .377 slugging percentage. McLean in his past five starts has an ERA of 6.38 with WHIP of 1.54. Lodolo in better recent form as is the Reds bullpen over the Mets. NY is 5-12 against left-handed starters with a -12.5-unit loss. Reds are 6-3 at home facing teams with a .380-to-.460-win percentage with a +2.4 unit return. Play Reds +110.

Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals

Start Time and TV: 1:05 PM ET — NATS, ROYL

Luinder Avila, Royals: Right Handed. 13 appearances, 4 starts. ERA 6.19. WHIP 1.81. Strikeout rate 19.4%. Walk rate 15.3%. Ground ball rate 46.8%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.1. FIP 5.03.

Zack Littell, Nationals: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 10 starts. ERA 5.32. WHIP 1.35. Strikeout rate 13.5%. Walk rate 7.3%. Ground ball rate 34.1%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 2.2.

Game Summary: Avila’s walk rate is the concern, while Littell’s home run rate creates danger. Washington has the steadier starter profile.

The Pick:

KC is batting .226 on the road with a .347 slugging percentage. Washington hits .243 at home with a .420 slugging percentage. Avila in his past five appearances has an ERA of 7.02. Littell in the better recent form. KC is 12-23 on the road with a -11.1-unit loss. Washington is 15-12 in their past 27 games with a +4.5-unit return. Play Washington -126.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Start Time and TV: 1:05 PM ET — NBC 10, MIAM

Sandy Alcantara, Marlins: Right Handed. 15 appearances, 15 starts. ERA 4.25. WHIP 1.22. Strikeout rate 17.6%. Walk rate 5.7%. Ground ball rate 44.7%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.1.

Andrew Painter, Phillies: Right Handed. 13 appearances, 11 starts. ERA 6.43. WHIP 1.57. Strikeout rate 17.5%. Walk rate 7.7%. Ground ball rate 39.1%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.7. FIP 5.17.

Game Summary: Alcantara has the cleaner WHIP and better command profile. Painter has been hittable and has allowed too much power.

The Pick:

Miami is batting .265 in their past seven games with a .402 slugging percentage. Philadelphia, in their past six games, bat .232 with a .369 slugging percentage. Both starters in poor recent form. Marlin’s bullpen is in the better recent form. Marlins won five of seven on the road with a +3.9-unit return. Philadelphia is 5-11 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a -9.5-unit loss. Play Miami +104.

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Start Time and TV: 2:10 PM ET — SCHN, DSN

Casey Mize, Tigers: Right Handed. 9 appearances, 9 starts. ERA 2.27. WHIP 0.97. Strikeout rate 26.5%. Walk rate 6.5%. Ground ball rate 35.2%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.4.

Peter Lambert, Astros: Right Handed. 10 appearances, 10 starts. ERA 3.47. WHIP 1.21. Strikeout rate 22.3%. Walk rate 10.5%. Ground ball rate 42.6%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.8.

Game Summary: Mize owns better run prevention, WHIP, strikeout rate, and walk profile. Lambert has been competitive but carries more traffic risk.

The Pick:

Detroit is batting .248 in their past six games with a .549 slugging percentage. Astros in this period hit .208 with a .411 slugging percentage. Mize in his past six starts has an ERA of 1.42 with WHIP of 0.72. Lambert in his past five starts carries an ERA of 4.23. Tigers’ bullpen allowed five runs in their past 25 1/3rd innings. Tigers have won four of six on the road with a +2.8-unit return. Astros are 5-8 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a -4.5-unit loss. Play Detroit -105.

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

Start Time and TV: 2:15 PM ET — CARD, SDPA

Griffin Canning, Padres: Right Handed. 8 appearances, 8 starts. ERA 7.17. WHIP 1.57. Strikeout rate 23.9%. Walk rate 13.5%. Ground ball rate 48.0%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.9. FIP 5.54.

Kyle Leahy, Cardinals: Right Handed. 13 appearances, 13 starts. ERA 4.64. WHIP 1.59. Strikeout rate 17.9%. Walk rate 8.6%. Ground ball rate 42.8%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.3.

Game Summary: Canning’s ERA and walk rate are major concerns. Leahy has not been dominant, but his control profile is safer.

The Pick:

San Diego is batting .207 in their past 27 games with a .357 slugging percentage. Cardinals in their past 25 games hit .250 with a .409 slugging percentage. Canning on the road allowed 16 earned runs in 11 2/3rd innings. Leahy’s ERA is better at home. San Diego is 2-4 to the run line on the road facing a team with a .540-to-.620-win percentage with a -4.5-unit loss. Cardinals are 22-14 to the run line at home with a +6.5-unit return. Play St Louis on run line -1.5 runs at +127.

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers

Start Time and TV: 3:10 PM ET — SNLA, RAYS

Shane McClanahan, Rays: Left Handed. 13 appearances, 13 starts. ERA 3.23. WHIP 1.17. Strikeout rate 24.6%. Walk rate 8.2%. Ground ball rate 44.4%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.4.

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: Right Handed. 70 appearances, 11 starts. ERA 1.06. WHIP 0.84. Strikeout rate 27.9%. Walk rate 8.0%. Ground ball rate 50.6%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.4. FIP 2.67.

Game Summary: McClanahan is strong, but Ohtani has been elite with a lower WHIP, stronger run prevention, and excellent ground ball numbers.

The Pick:

Tampa Bay is batting .252 on the road with a .358 slugging percentage. LA in their past six games hit .231. McClanahan in his seven-day games carries an ERA of 2.88. Ohtani at home has an ERA of 0.87 with WHIP of 0.84 in five starts. LA is 21-14 to the under at home. Tampa Bay is 11-6 to the under on the road facing a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or lower. Play Rays and Dodgers under 7.5.

Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

Start Time and TV: 3:40 PM ET — ARID, ABTV

Sam Aldegheri, Angels: Left Handed. 5 appearances, 2 starts. ERA 2.12. WHIP 1.29. Strikeout rate 16.7%. Walk rate 11.1%. Ground ball rate 30.0%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.5. FIP 3.86.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks: Left Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 2.55. WHIP 1.23. Strikeout rate 17.9%. Walk rate 9.5%. Ground ball rate 40.2%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.9. FIP 4.08.

Game Summary: Rodriguez has the longer starter workload and better WHIP. Aldegheri has a solid ERA, but his walk and low ground ball rates add risk.

The Pick:

Angels are batting .246 against left-handed starters with a .391 slugging percentage. Arizona bats .273 against left-handed starters with a .447 slugging percentage. Rodriduez at home carries an ERA of 1.93 in seven games. Angels are 7-10 to the run line on the road when lined at +100 to +150 with a -10.2-unit loss. Arizona is 8-3 to the run line at home facing teams with a .380-to-.460-win percentage with a +7.7-unit return. Play Arizona on run line -1.5 runs at +122.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Start Time and TV: 6:45 PM ET — NESN, SN1

Max Scherzer, Blue Jays: Right Handed. 6 appearances, 6 starts. ERA 10.23. WHIP 1.73. Strikeout rate 13.7%. Walk rate 10.8%. Ground ball rate 31.6%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 3.7. FIP 8.78.

Jake Bennett, Red Sox: Left Handed. 3 appearances, 3 starts. ERA 5.28. WHIP 1.50. Strikeout rate 12.3%. Walk rate 7.7%. Ground ball rate 55.1%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.6. FIP 3.88.

Game Summary: Scherzer’s home run rate and WHIP are hard to trust. Bennett has limited home runs and keeps the ball on the ground.

The Pick:

Toronto is batting .230 against left-handed starters with a .360 slugging percentage. Boston is batting .269 in their past 23 games with a .436 slugging percentage. Bennett’s numbers have been better at home. Red Sox bullpen in the better recent form. Toronto is 14-20 on the road with a -7.5-unit loss. Boston is 3-2 at home facing a staring pitching that allows 1 home run per start or greater with a +0.8-unit return. Play Boston -125.

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

Start Time and TV: 7:05 PM ET — AmazonPV, CHSN

Anthony Kay, White Sox: Left Handed. 14 appearances, 12 starts. ERA 4.34. WHIP 1.42. Strikeout rate 17.6%. Walk rate 9.0%. Ground ball rate 45.6%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.4.

Carlos Rodon, Yankees: Left Handed. 6 appearances, 6 starts. ERA 3.19. WHIP 1.19. Strikeout rate 26.4%. Walk rate 14.7%. Ground ball rate 41.9%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.6.

Game Summary: Rodon has the better strikeout rate, ERA, WHIP, and home run prevention. Kay has more contact and traffic concerns.

The Pick:

Chicago is batting .240 against left-handed starters with a .419 slugging percentage. Yankees are hitting .276 against left-handed starters with a .498 slugging percentage. Kay on the road has an ERA of 6.04 with .518 slugging percentage against. White Sox bullpen on the road carries an ERA of 5.35. Chicago is 16-8-2 to the over in their past 26. NY has gone over in four of five. Play White Sox and Yankees over 8.5.

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

Start Time and TV: 7:15 PM ET — BravesVsn, NBCSBA

Robbie Ray, Giants: Left Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 4.42. WHIP 1.39. Strikeout rate 21.0%. Walk rate 11.5%. Ground ball rate 31.3%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.7.

JR Ritchie, Braves: Right Handed. 6 appearances, 5 starts. ERA 3.82. WHIP 1.34. Strikeout rate 19.7%. Walk rate 13.6%. Ground ball rate 48.2%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.2. FIP 5.15.

Game Summary: Ray has the experience edge, but his walks and fly-ball profile are dangerous. Ritchie has a better ERA and ground ball rate, but the FIP gap warns of regression.

The Pick:

San Francisco has an OBP of .303 against right-handed starters. Atlanta is hitting .246 against left-handed starters with a .423 slugging percentage. Ray on the road has an ERA of 5.35 with .548 slugging percentage against. Ritchie at home carries an ERA of 2.70 with a .306 slugging percentage against. Braves bullpen allowed one earned run in their past 15 innings. Giants pen allowed 11 runs in their past 18 2/3rd innings. Atlanta is 21-9 against left-handed starters with a +8.7-unit return. SF is 8-14 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 with a -5-unit loss. Play Atlanta -135.

Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers

Start Time and TV: 7:40 PM ET — BREW, CLEG

Gavin Williams, Guardians: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 3.32. WHIP 1.10. Strikeout rate 28.7%. Walk rate 8.1%. Ground ball rate 46.5%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.4.

Brandon Sproat, Brewers: Right Handed. 13 appearances, 11 starts. ERA 5.70. WHIP 1.48. Strikeout rate 21.8%. Walk rate 11.5%. Ground ball rate 44.3%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.8.

Game Summary: Williams owns the stronger ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and command profile. Sproat’s walks and home run rate create trouble.

The Pick:

Cleveland is batting .219 against right-handed starters with a .361 slugging percentage. Milwaukee is batting .253 against right-handed starters with a .384 slugging percentage. Williams, in his past five starts carries an ERA of 2.59 with WHIP of 0.92. Guardians’ bullpen in good recent form. Brewer’s pen performs well at home. Brewers have gone under in five of six. Cleveland is 5-0 to the under on the road facing teams with a .620 or higher win percentage. Play Cleveland and Milwaukee under 7.5.

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs

Start Time and TV: 8:05 PM ET — MARQ, COLR

Sean Sullivan, Rockies: Left Handed. 1 appearance, 1 start. ERA 0.00. WHIP 0.67. Strikeout rate 16.7%. Walk rate 0.0%. Ground ball rate 22.2%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.0. FIP 2.76.

Javier Assad, Cubs: Right Handed. 10 appearances, 4 starts. ERA 3.99. WHIP 1.02. Strikeout rate 16.0%. Walk rate 6.0%. Ground ball rate 47.4%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.9.

Game Summary: Sullivan has a tiny sample. Assad has the more established profile with strong WHIP control and a better ground ball rate.

The Pick:

Colorado is batting .262 in their past 27 games with a .433 slugging percentage. Cubs in this period bat .228 with a .377 slugging percentage. Both bullpens are in poor recent form. Chicago has lost 18 of 27 with a -15.1-unit loss. Play Colorado +162.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics

Start Time and TV: 9:40 PM ET — NBCSCA, SNP

Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 3.30. WHIP 1.10. Strikeout rate 26.2%. Walk rate 5.5%. Ground ball rate 45.4%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.9.

Aaron Civale, Athletics: Right Handed. 11 appearances, 11 starts. ERA 4.20. WHIP 1.47. Strikeout rate 15.9%. Walk rate 6.9%. Ground ball rate 28.9%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.9. FIP 5.47.

Game Summary: Ashcraft has the stronger strikeout rate, WHIP, and home run prevention. Civale’s low ground ball rate and elevated FIP are concerns.

The Pick:

Pittsburgh is batting .256 in their past 27 games with a .420 slugging percentage. Athletics in their past 28 games hit .251 with a .439 slugging percentage. Civale in his past two starts allowed 12 runs in 14 innings. Both bullpens are in bad recent form. Athletics are 21-12-2 to the over at home. Pirates are 17-9-1 to the over in their past 27 games. Play Pittsburgh and Athletics over 10.

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners

Start Time and TV: 9:40 PM ET — SEAM, MASN

Kyle Bradish, Orioles: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 4.30. WHIP 1.57. Strikeout rate 22.6%. Walk rate 12.1%. Ground ball rate 50.0%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 1.3.

George Kirby, Mariners: Right Handed. 14 appearances, 14 starts. ERA 4.07. WHIP 1.31. Strikeout rate 21.1%. Walk rate 6.0%. Ground ball rate 52.0%. Home runs allowed per nine innings 0.9.

Game Summary: Kirby has the better WHIP, walk rate, ground ball rate, and home run prevention. Bradish’s walk rate makes Seattle the cleaner side.

The Pick:

Baltimore is batting .262 in their past 27 games with a .447 slugging percentage. Seattle hits .232 at home. Kirby in his past five starts carries an ERA of 6.67 with .522 slugging percentage against. Orioles bullpen in the better recent form. Seattle is 10-11 in their home night games with a .5.1-unit loss. Play Baltimore +127.

Free MLB Picks For Today 6/17/2026

MLB Sharp Betting Card

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

Play: Cincinnati Reds +110
Moneyline: +110
Grade: B+ (Plus-Money Home Dog)
Key Edges:

• Plus-money dog with home-field value
• Mets lineup split weakness against left-handed starters
• Reds bullpen gap in better recent form
• Nolan McLean recent ERA regression
• Nick Lodolo recent form edge
• New York poor return profile versus lefties

Read:
The Reds are not a clean favorite profile, but the price creates value against a Mets lineup struggling versus left-handed pitching. Cincinnati gets the better recent bullpen form and a plus-money number at home.

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals

Play: Washington Nationals -126
Moneyline: -126
Grade: B (Home Starter Edge)
Key Edges:

• Zack Littell recent form advantage
• Royals road offensive weakness
• Kansas City negative road betting return
• Washington stronger home slugging profile
• Luinder Avila walk-rate concern
• Nationals recent plus-unit form

Read:
Washington has the steadier side profile with better recent starter form and stronger home offense. The price is not cheap, but Kansas City’s road struggles and Avila’s command issues support the Nationals.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Play: Miami Marlins +104
Moneyline: +104
Grade: B+ (Live Road Dog)
Key Edges:

• Plus-money dog value
• Miami better recent offensive form
• Marlins bullpen gap in better recent form
• Philadelphia cold short-term lineup form
• Andrew Painter traffic and power concerns
• Phillies poor home favorite return profile

Read:
Miami brings better recent bats and a bullpen edge into a matchup where Philadelphia is overpriced at home. With both starters shaky, the plus-money dog has enough supporting value.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

Play: Detroit Tigers -105
Moneyline: -105
Grade: A- (Sharp Pitching Edge)
Key Edges:

• Casey Mize clear starting pitching edge
• Detroit stronger recent offensive form
• Tigers bullpen gap in strong recent form
• Houston lineup trending cold
• Peter Lambert recent ERA concern
• Astros weak home favorite return profile

Read:
Detroit owns the cleaner pitching profile with Mize in excellent recent form and the bullpen holding up well. Near pick’em pricing makes the Tigers one of the stronger value positions on the card.

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals

Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +127
Run Line: -1.5 runs (+127)
Grade: B (Run-Line Value)
Key Edges:

• Run-line value at plus money
• Padres lineup in poor extended offensive form
• Griffin Canning road blowup risk
• Cardinals stronger recent offensive form
• Kyle Leahy better home split
• St. Louis strong home run-line return

Read:
The Cardinals offer plus-money run-line value against a Padres offense that has not traveled well. Canning’s road form creates enough separation for St. Louis to be live for margin.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Play: Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5
Total: Under 7.5
Grade: B+ (Pitching Under)
Key Edges:

• Shohei Ohtani elite home run-prevention profile
• Shane McClanahan strong starting pitching edge for Tampa Bay
• Both starters limit home run damage
• Dodgers home under trend support
• Rays road under profile
• Lower-scoring setup despite strong team names

Read:
This total leans on two quality starting pitching profiles with strong home run suppression. Ohtani’s home form and McClanahan’s day-game profile support a tighter run environment.

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +122
Run Line: -1.5 runs (+122)
Grade: B+ (Home Run-Line Edge)
Key Edges:

• Run-line value at plus money
• Arizona lineup split edge versus left-handed pitching
• Eduardo Rodriguez strong home ERA profile
• Angels road run-line weakness
• Arizona strong home run-line return
• Sam Aldegheri walk-rate risk

Read:
Arizona has the better matchup against left-handed pitching and the more proven starter workload. With Rodriguez stronger at home, the Diamondbacks have enough edge to justify the plus-money run line.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Play: Boston Red Sox -125
Moneyline: -125
Grade: B (Home Form Edge)
Key Edges:

• Boston stronger recent offensive form
• Red Sox bullpen gap in better recent form
• Max Scherzer major home-run concern
• Toronto weak road return profile
• Blue Jays lineup split weakness versus lefties
• Jake Bennett better home profile

Read:
Boston fits as the cleaner side with better recent bats and a bullpen edge. Scherzer’s home-run issues make Toronto difficult to trust on the road.

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees

Play: Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Over 8.5
Total: Over 8.5
Grade: B+ (Power-Split Over)
Key Edges:

• Yankees lineup split edge versus left-handed pitching
• Anthony Kay poor road ERA profile
• White Sox bullpen road weakness
• Chicago recent over trend
• Yankees recent over form
• New York strong slugging profile against lefties

Read:
The Yankees’ power profile against left-handed pitching gives this over a strong foundation. Kay’s road struggles and Chicago’s bullpen issues create multiple paths to run production.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves

Play: Atlanta Braves -135
Moneyline: -135
Grade: B+ (Bullpen + Split Edge)
Key Edges:

• Atlanta strong return profile versus left-handed starters
• Braves bullpen gap in better recent form
• Robbie Ray road ERA concern
• JR Ritchie stronger home profile
• Giants road underdog weakness
• Atlanta lineup split edge against lefties

Read:
Atlanta has the better matchup against a left-handed starter and a clear recent bullpen edge. Ray’s road form makes the Braves the sharper side even at a moderate favorite price.

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers

Play: Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Under 7.5
Total: Under 7.5
Grade: B (Bullpen Under)
Key Edges:

• Gavin Williams starting pitching edge
• Cleveland bullpen in good recent form
• Milwaukee bullpen performs well at home
• Brewers recent under trend
• Guardians road under profile
• Both offenses carry modest right-handed starter splits

Read:
Williams gives Cleveland the stronger starter profile, while both bullpens support a lower-scoring setup. With Milwaukee trending under and Cleveland’s road under angle in play, 7.5 is playable.

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs

Play: Colorado Rockies +162
Moneyline: +162
Grade: C+ (High-Variance Dog)
Key Edges:

• Big plus-money dog price
• Colorado better recent offensive form
• Cubs extended losing stretch
• Both bullpens in poor recent form
• Chicago lineup trending cold
• Sean Sullivan small-sample volatility

Read:
Colorado is a higher-risk dog, but the price is attractive against a Cubs team in poor form. The bullpen volatility adds risk, but Chicago’s recent slide makes the Rockies worth a smaller value look.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics

Play: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics Over 10
Total: Over 10
Grade: B (Bullpen Fatigue Over)
Key Edges:

• Both bullpens in bad recent form
• Athletics strong home over trend
• Pirates recent over trend
• Aaron Civale recent run-prevention concern
• Both lineups showing solid recent slugging
• Park and pitching setup favor scoring volatility

Read:
This over is built around poor bullpen form and Civale’s recent struggles. Both teams have enough recent offensive production to push this game past a high number.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners

Play: Baltimore Orioles +127
Moneyline: +127
Grade: B (Road Dog Value)
Key Edges:

• Plus-money dog value
• Baltimore better recent offensive form
• Orioles bullpen gap in better recent form
• George Kirby recent ERA concern
• Seattle home offensive weakness
• Mariners poor home night return profile

Read:
Baltimore has enough offensive form and bullpen support to justify the road dog price. Kirby’s recent struggles weaken Seattle’s starter edge, making the Orioles live at plus money.