WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Finale: Sides & Totals for All Six Wednesday Games — June 17

Wednesday, June 17, 2026 brings the final day of WNBA Commissioner’s Cup group play, and it is a loaded six-game slate with seeding and pride on the line. Ron Crawford broke down every matchup with the crew — Javon Jones, Solo Malone, Justin McKelby, and Bo Dunn — to find the best sides and totals on the board.

The standings picture adds intrigue, with the Aces and Lynx jockeying for the Western finalist spot while the East is already locked up by the Liberty. Below is the full sides-and-totals card, game by game.

What’s at Stake in the Cup Finale

This is the last day of Commissioner’s Cup group play, and the Western Conference finalist is still undecided. The Aces control their own fate — win and they are in. If Las Vegas loses and Minnesota wins, the Lynx grab the spot instead. A wild three-way tie only opens up if Dallas wins while both the Aces and Lynx fall.

Because the tiebreakers run record first, then head-to-head, point margin likely will not matter in most scenarios. Still, it gives Minnesota and Las Vegas extra incentive to pour it on late, which factors directly into a couple of the totals leans below. With six games to attack, the crew found value on sides, totals, and team totals alike.

Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun

The Mystics open as a road favorite around 3.5-to-4 points with the total at 163.5. Washington is coming off a one-point home win over Toronto, and now they hit the road on a quick turnaround — a classic letdown setup against a desperate home team.

The crew leans toward the home dog here. Justin liked Connecticut catching nearly four at home, and Solo leaned under, expecting Washington’s defense to travel and control the glass. The number is just scary enough that several wanted the points rather than laying them.

There is a contrarian wrinkle: Javon pointed to the Sun allowing at least 86 points per game and floated the Mystics team total over 83.5, noting Washington shoots 45% from the field behind Sonia Citron (16-plus per game) and Shakira Austin (14 per game). Bo, meanwhile, was willing to lay the 3.5 with Washington. Lean: Connecticut Sun +4, with the under 163.5 in support.

New York Liberty at Chicago Sky

New York travels to Chicago laying 8.5 with the total at 169.5. The Liberty have already clinched the East and are riding seven straight wins, including a 22-point demolition of Washington on Sunday with Breanna Stewart playing at an MVP level.

Stewart is fresh off a career-high seven-block game to go with a double-double, and Jonquel Jones is rolling as well. New York is drilling 42.3% from three, so the offensive firepower is there even in a game with nothing on the line. Javon was comfortable laying the 8.5 and even liked a Liberty team total over 89.5.

The stronger consensus, though, is on the total. Chicago’s offense ranks among the league’s worst — Stacks and Bo both expect the Sky to scratch out only around 70 points, with the Liberty winning the bare minimum they need. Lean: Liberty -8.5 and Under 169.5.

Minnesota Lynx at LA Sparks

This is the most unanimous side of the night. Minnesota lays 4.5 on the road with the total at 177.5, fresh off a 107-74 demolition that showed exactly how dominant this group can be when it pushes the pace.

Solo, Stacks, Javon, and Ron all landed on the Lynx. Minnesota averages 21 assists per game, shoots 50% from the field, and knocks down 35% of its threes, with Courtney Williams executing down the stretch and Olivia Miles setting the table. The defense is the separator — it has covered every road game this year, a perfect 6-0 ATS away from home.

The Sparks simply do not defend at home, which is why Stacks also liked the Minnesota team total over as a way to sidestep relying on LA to contribute. With Cup positioning on the line, expect the Lynx to keep the foot on the gas. Lean: Minnesota Lynx -4.5 — the strongest play on the entire card.

Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury

Las Vegas lays 7.5 in Phoenix with the total at 173.5. The Aces are coming off a stunning 30-point loss to Dallas, and the crew expects a furious bounce-back from a team that still controls its own Cup destiny and cannot afford to slip.

Javon, Solo, Bo, and Ron all leaned Vegas, several pointing to the revenge angle after Phoenix knocked them off earlier in the season. This Mercury group is a shell of its former self, with key pieces gone, and Ron expects the Aces to win big — he flagged the Phoenix team total under as a companion angle.

On the other side of the ledger, Bo liked the Aces team total over 90.5 and Solo expects a Chelsea Gray bounce-back after she was held scoreless in the blowout. Lean: Las Vegas Aces -7.5, with the Phoenix team total under as a secondary look.

Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries

Golden State lays a short 2.5 at home with the total at 165.5. That suspiciously low number sparked plenty of debate, with the crew wary of a Dallas letdown after the Wings’ huge win over Vegas.

Ron and Bo both leaned Golden State, pointing to the Valkyries’ league-best home defense and the classic public trap of backing the team fresh off a blowout win. The crew noted the public always bets what it just saw, and right now that is Dallas — which is exactly why the line may be begging for Valkyries money.

Javon backed the under 165.5, citing Golden State holding opponents under 80 points per game with Kia Stokes (1.8 blocks per game) and Paige Bueckers capable defensively. Solo took the contrarian Wings money line. Lean: Golden State Valkyries -2.5, with the Under 165.5 in play.

Seattle Storm at Portland Fire

The nightcap is a funky regional matchup with Portland laying just 2.5 and the total at 161.5. Seattle’s record is poor at 3-12, but they have been covering left and right, going 4-1 ATS against the Western Conference even while losing outright.

Ron, Solo, and Bo all took the points with Seattle, citing their size, Malonga’s return, solid pace, and a low line that screams value. Stacks pushed back hard and bet Portland at home off a 30-point road blowout, unwilling to back Seattle away from home.

Both young teams have a habit of collapsing in the fourth quarter, which is why Javon went off the board entirely and sprinkled a longshot overtime ticket at plus-2200 (available as high as plus-3200 at some books). Lean: Seattle Storm +2.5, with the overtime flier as a fun add.

Final Sides & Totals Card

Putting it all together, here is how Ron and the crew lean across the six-game Commissioner’s Cup finale: Connecticut Sun +4, Liberty -8.5 with the under 169.5, Minnesota Lynx -4.5, Las Vegas Aces -7.5, Golden State Valkyries -2.5 with the under 165.5, and Seattle Storm +2.5.

The two strongest plays are the Minnesota Lynx laying the points on the road and the Las Vegas Aces bouncing back at full force in a must-win spot. For the player props and best bets tied to this same slate, check out the companion breakdown.

How to Attack the Card

With six games on the board, the smart approach is to lean on the spots where the crew agreed and let the lone-wolf plays ride as smaller fliers. The Lynx and Aces sides drew near-unanimous support, so those carry the most weight tonight. The Liberty under and Golden State under offer totals exposure without chasing points, while the Seattle dog and the overtime longshot are lower-confidence dart throws. Spreading a unit across the consensus plays and keeping the contrarian angles light is how this group manages a long, busy slate.

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