Atlanta Braves (104-58) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/11/23 – As the MLB playoffs are in full swing, two National League powerhouses clash at Citizens Bank Park in Game 3 of the NLDS. With the series evenly poised at 1-1, both teams are eager to tip the scales in their favor. While the Braves dominated the regular season, outpacing many with a stellar 104-58 record, the Phillies, at 90-72, have shown resilience and tenacity. With high stakes and the pressure of the playoffs, this is shaping up to be one of the top baseball wagers today.
The Atlanta Braves, holding the best record in the National League, have showcased their prowess both offensively and defensively. With an imposing .276 batting average and a massive 947 runs, their lineup has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers. Their impressive 307 home runs led the league, and with a .344 On Base Percentage combined with a .501 Slugging Percentage, the Braves have displayed a balanced and explosive offense. This offensive might is further bolstered by their pitching staff, who managed a 4.14 ERA and kept opponents to a .245 batting average.
On the flip side, the Philadelphia Phillies have put together a commendable season, making it to the playoffs and tying the series against the dominant Braves. They’ve achieved a .256 batting average, amassed 796 runs from 1417 hits, and launched 220 balls over the fence. Their .327 On Base Percentage and .438 Slugging Percentage point to a balanced offensive approach. Coupled with their solid pitching performance, holding a 4.02 ERA and keeping opponents to a .240 batting average, they’ve made a statement about their playoff credentials.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/11/23 Game Info
| When: | Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 5:07 PM ET |
| Where: | Citizens Bank Park |
| TV: | TBS |
| Stream: | MLB.TV |
AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0 W-L, 4.26 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (12-9 W-L, 4.46 ERA)
For the Braves, rookie AJ Smith-Shawver will take the mound. In his brief stint in the majors, he’s held his own with a 1-0 record and a 4.26 ERA. In 25.1 innings pitched, he’s allowed 17 hits, fanned 20 batters, and walked 11. Although he’s surrendered 7 home runs, his 1.11 WHIP suggests a decent control over baserunners. This young pitcher’s relative inexperience might be his only weakness in this high-pressure game, but his early numbers show promise.
Aaron Nola will be the starting arm for the Phillies. A seasoned pitcher, Nola brings experience with a 12-9 record this season and a 4.46 ERA. In his 193.2 innings, he’s given up 178 hits, struck out an impressive 202 batters, and walked 45. His 32 home runs allowed indicate areas of concern, but his 1.15 WHIP points to his consistent performance. Nola’s experience and the home crowd’s support could be pivotal in this matchup.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -122, Total Odds: 9
The odds slightly favor the Phillies, with a moneyline of -122, reflecting their home advantage and Nola’s experience. The total odds stand at 9, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Braves have shown consistency, with the total going OVER in 13 of their last 18 games. Their recent form is also impressive, holding an 8-4 SU record in their last 12 games. Notably, against the Phillies, they’ve managed an 8-4 SU in their last 12 and a commendable 5-1 SU record when playing in Philadelphia. Their recent road games have been particularly high scoring, with the total going OVER in 6 of their last 7.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Phillies come into this with a solid recent form, boasting a 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. At home, they’ve been formidable, with an 8-1 SU record in their last 9 games. However, against the Braves, especially at home, they’ve struggled with a 1-5 SU. The totals in their games against Atlanta have been a mixed bag, with 6 of the last 9 going OVER, but when playing as the favorite, the UNDER has come through 5 out of 7 times.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/11/23 Betting Picks
This matchup promises to be a classic battle between a dominant regular-season team and a home-favoring underdog. With both teams showcasing their strengths in different aspects of the game, making a definitive pick is challenging. Given the high-scoring nature of recent games involving both teams, the over 9 seems like an enticing bet. While the Braves’ offensive might is well documented, the Phillies, especially at home, have the firepower to contribute to a high-scoring affair.
For those seeking to make a wager on the outright winner, it’s a close call. While the Braves have had the upper hand recently, the Phillies’ home advantage and the experience of Nola on the mound make them a tempting pick. Combining this analysis with other free expert picks can help bettors make an informed decision.
Free Pick and Prediction: Atlanta Braves 6, Philadelphia Phillies 5
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