Free MLB Picks For Today 5/4/2024
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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Tigers at Yankees—Casey Mize to start for Detroit. Mize in five starts on the year carries an ERA of 3.08 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander is striking out only 15.9% with 5.3% walks. Ground balls served at 50% with limited home run damage. Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt has six starts with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.39. The righthander fans 26.2% with 10% walks. Ground balls come in at 38.3% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Detroit bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.04 in their first fourteen games. They hit just .223 against right-handed starters. New York in their first thirteen home games hitting only .231. Mize is 13-2 to the under in Day Games. Mize is 27-10 to the under when lined at +100 or higher. Play Detroit and New York under 8.
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Red Sox at Twins—Chase Anderson to start for Boston. Anderson appeared in seven games on the campaign producing an ERA of 5.52 with WHIP of 1.16. The veteran strikes out only 12.9% with 6.5% walks. Grounders sit at 25% with 1.84 home runs per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will start for Minnesota. Lopez has six starts with an ERA of 4.83 with WHIP of 1.04. The righthander fans 29.4% with 5.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.5% with 1.71 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
As this series started the Twins were hitting .316 and putting up 8.1 runs per game in their past seven games. The Red Sox in this period are hitting .300 and putting up 5.4 runs a game. Play Boston and Minnesota over.
Chicago White Sox vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
White Sox at Cardinals—Erick Fedde to start for Chicago. Fedde has six starts in the year dealing an ERA of 2.60 with WHIP of 1.07. The righthander has seen his strikeouts rise to 27.5% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls served at 41.9% with 1.56 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.99 which suggests a rise in ERA based on form. Lance Lynn to start for St Louis. Lynn in six starts has an ERA of 2.64 with WHIP of 1.40. The veteran is fanning 21.3% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls served at 39.6% with 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Cardinals in their first 12 at home are hitting .211. As this series began the White Sox had hit .282 and put up 5.1 runs per game. St Louis is 24-34 when lined as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -27-unit loss. The White Sox are 18-7 on the road facing teams that average 0.75 home runs per game or fewer the past three seasons. Play Chicago +158.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Brewers at Cubs—Tobias Myers to start for Milwaukee. Myers in two starts allowed five earned runs with three homers and nine strikeouts in ten innings. He has been in the minor leagues since 2016, drafted out of high school, and posted an ERA of 1.62 with WHIP of 1.11 in 16 2/3rd innings in Triple A this year. Jameson Taillon to start for Chicago. Taillon has three starts carrying an ERA of 1.50 with WHIP of 0.94. The veteran has seen his strikeouts drop to 12.7% with 4.2% walks. Grounders served at 44.8% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Milwaukee has won 13 of their first 17 on the road where they hit .277 and put up 5.8 runs per game. The Brewers bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.14. As this series opened the Cubs were hitting only .202. Taillon high contact a concern here. Play Milwaukee +110.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Blue Jays at Nationals—Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman in six starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.50 with WHIP of 1.36. the veteran has seen his K rate drop to 18.7% with 4.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.4% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings. Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin has six starts with an ERA of 4.28 with WHIP of 1.10. The second year righty strikes out 19.3% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.2% with 0.80 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Past seven games the Blue Jays are hitting .190 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The team record behind Gausman 45-38 when lined at -150 or greater with a -27.7-unit loss. The Nationals are 9-4 facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or worse this season with a +8.9-unit return. Play Washington +149.
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Rockies at Pirates—Austin Gomber to start for Colorado. Gomber in six starts in 2024 provides an ERA of 4.50 with WHIP of 1.34. The lefthander is striking out 16.2% with 8.1% walks. Grounders served at 41.2% with 1.97 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.62 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Jared Jones to start for Pittsburgh. Jones in six starts on the campaign rides an ERA of 3.18 with WHIP of 0.91. The rookie righthander is fanning 31.8% with 3.8% walks. Grounders come in at 40.5% with 1.85 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
As this series began the Pirates were hitting .189 in their past seven games. The Rockies struggle to hit and score on the road. Gomber 14-4 to the under when an underdog of +150 or higher. Play Colorado and Pittsburgh under 7.5.
Miami Marlins vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Marlins at Athletics—Trevor Rogers to start for Miami. Rogers has six starts on the campaign dealing an ERA of 4.31 with WHIP of 1.50. The lefthander strikes out 19.1% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 51.5% with 0.57 home runs per nine innings. Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn in six starts has an ERA of 3.34 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander strikes out 20% with 6.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 49.5% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Athletics bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.44 in their first sixteen games. The Marlins against the AL are hitting .163 and lost five of six when this series began. The team record behind Rogers 3-19 when an underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a -12.5-unit Team loss. The team record is 1-14 in Days games the past two seasons. Blackburn’s team is 8-2 facing interleague the past three seasons with a +9.5-unit return. Play Oakland -114.
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Giants at Phillies—Keaton Winn to start for San Francisco. Winn has six starts on the season posting an ERA of 3.18 and WHIP of 0.97. The righthander is striking out 21.5% with 7.7% walks. Grounders dished at 60.2% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. Ranger Suarez will start for Philadelphia. Suarez in six starts has an ERA of 1.32 with WHIP of 0.63. The lefthander sits with 27.8% K’s with 3.5% walks. Ground balls come in at 60.8% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Phillies bullpen at home has an ERA of 7.16 in their first 16 games. The Giants produce more runs on the road. Play San Francisco +145.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Angels at Guardians—Reid Detmers to start for Los Angeles. Detmers in six starts produces an ERA of 3.12 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander fans 26.6% with 7.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 44% with limited home run damage. Ben Lively will start for Cleveland. Lively has three starts with an ERA of 2.30 and WHIP of 0.86. The righthander has a K rate of 31.7% with 5% walks. Ground balls sit at 21.1% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Cleveland bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.50 in their first 12 home games. The Angels bullpen perform better on the road. They are hitting .236 on the road. The Guardians are 33-18 to the under when favored at home by -110 or higher and 26-12 to the under against a losing team. Play Los Angeles and Cleveland under 8.
PART 2
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Orioles at Reds—John Means to start for Baltimore. Means was sidelined for most of past two seasons with an injury. He has appeared in 74 games with 60 starts, posting an ERA of 3.74 with WHIP of 1.06. He struck out 318 batters in 380 1/3rd innings. In Triple A rehab he started six games allowing 18 earned runs with 22 strikeouts in 18 2/3rd innings. Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott in six starts produces an ERA of 3.27 with WHIP of 1.12. The lefty fans 20.1% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 32.3% with 1.36 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Reds in their 12 games against left-handed starters are batting .191. The team in their past seven games is hitting .181. The Orioles in their 12 games against left-handed starters are putting up 5.3 runs per game winning eight of those games. The Orioles are 9-1 on the road when lined at +125 to -124 this season with a +7.9-unit return. Play Baltimore -111.
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Rangers at Royals—Dane Dunning to start for Texas. Dunning has six starts in the year producing an ERA of 4.13 with WHIP of 1.16. The righthander is fanning 28.9% with 11.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 42.9% with 1.93 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.27 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Michael Wacha to start for Kansas City. Wacha in six starts has an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.32. The veteran is striking out 19.6% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls served at 40.2% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Kansas City bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.51. The Rangers on the road have an ERA of 7.11. The Royals at home are hitting .260 and putting up 5.3 runs per game. The team record behind Dunning on the road is 14-34 with a -21.1-unit loss. KC is 12-3 at home against right-handed starters with a +10-unit return. The team record behind Wacha 21-5 at home the past three seasons. Play Kansas City -104.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Mariners at Astros—Logan Gilbert to start for Seattle. Gilbert has six starts on the season dealing an ERA of 2.03 with WHIP of 0.80. The righthander fans 29.3% with 6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 38.5% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez in three starts has an ERA of 2.60 with WHIP of 1.27. The lefthander strikes out 23.5% with 8.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 65.1% with no homers allowed.
The Pick:
Seattle is batting .201 in their nine games against left-handed starters. They are batting just .196 in their past seven games. The Astros at home are hitting .280 and putting up 5.1 runs per game. Past seven games they are putting up 6.6 runs per game. Play Houston -135.
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Mets at Rays—Christian Scott expected starter for New York. Scott is expected to make his MLB debut. He was a fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida. He put up great numbers in Double A last year. This year in five starts in Triple A, the righthander has an ERA of 3.20 with WHIP of 0.72 striking out 36 batters in 25 1/3rd innings. Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell has six starts posting an ERA of 3.27 with WHIP of 1.36. The righty has a K rate of 24.8% with 3.5% walks. Ground balls served at 34% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Mets on the road are putting up 5.8 runs per game and hitting .269. The Rays bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.40. The Rays have lost 13 of 22 facing right-handed starters this year hitting .224 and putting up 3.5 runs per game. Play New York -101.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Padres at Diamondbacks—Michael King to start for San Diego. King in seven appearances on the year deals an ERA of 5.00 with WHIP of 1.47. The righthander is fanning 24.7% with 13% walks. Grounders sit at 42% with 2.50 home runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt in six starts has an ERA of 4.63 with WHIP of 1.11. The righty has a K rate of 26.2% with 4.1% walks. Grounders dished at 39.2% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Arizona is batting .208 against right handed starters putting up 3.4 runs per game. In their past seven games they are batting .180 and averaging 2.0 runs per game. The Padres in their road games are putting up 5.3 runs per game and hitting .273. Play San Diego +116.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/4/2024
Braves at Dodgers—Bryce Elder to start for Atlanta. Elder in two starts allowed two earned runs with six strikeouts in 12 innings of work. He was called up from Triple A where he produced an ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.18 in 16 1/3rd innings striking out 18. Last year he started 31 games posting an ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.28. The righthander struck out 17.5% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 49.9% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Glasnow to start for Los Angeles. Glasnow has seven starts with an ERA of 2.72 and WHIP of 0.93. The veteran has an elite K rate of 31.5% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.6% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Dodgers bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.39 with the Braves on the road an ERA of 2.42. The Braves are putting up 5.2 runs per game against right handed starters and hitting .262. Los Angeles is 15-20 at home facing an NL team averaging 4.5 runs per game or greater the past two seasons. Play Atlanta +156.