Free NFL Picks For Today 10/8/2023
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Jaguars at Bills—Jacksonville receiver Zay Jones is questionable. On defense their nose tackle is questionable with a linebacker out. Buffalo has healthy starters on offense. A defensive end is out with a corner questionable. Jacksonville improved to 2-2 with their 23-7 victory in London to the Atlanta Falcons. Jaguars built the 17-0 half time lead. Jaguars rushed for just over three yards a carry. On defense they allowed 127 rushing yards to the Falcons for five yards per run but only 160 passing yards on 31 attempts. Trevor Lawrence hit 23 of 30 for 207 yards with a touchdown. He averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt and rushed for 42 yards. Jags had a +3-turnover margin. Buffalo improved to 3-1 with their 48-20 home victory to Miami. Bills ran for 104 yards for 3.5 yards a carry. They allowed 142 rushing yards to the Dolphins for seven yards a carry plus surrendered 251 yards passing on 35 attempts. Josh Allen completed 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. He rushed for 17 yards and a touchdown. Bills had a +2 turnover margin and recorded four sacks. The Jaguars are holding teams to 3.9 yards per rush. They are facing not travel in this spot having played in London last week. The Bills are coming off a division home win last week in Miami. There are some red flags for Jacksonville here. They sit 29th in the league on third down and 26th in red zone offense. Buffalo offensively is second on third down and sixth in the red zone. Their defense sits fifth on third down and ninth in the red zone. Bills sit fifth in the league in yards per play at 6.2 yards and average 10 yards per completed pass and 7.5 yards per attempt. Jacksonville pass defense a concern as they give up 10.4 yards per completion and 6.8 yards per attempt. Buffalo is running for 4.6 yards a carry and that will set up some big plays in the passing game. Josh Allen in these past three games is completing 76.6% of his passes, 8 touchdowns, 1 interception and 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Those three games resulted in wins by 28, 34 and 28 points. Play Buffalo -5.5.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Saints at Patriots—Derek Carr is questionable for New Orleans along with a left guard on offense. Also, tight end Juwan Johnson is out. On defense a cornerback is questionable. New England running back Stevenson questionable as are their left tackle and left guards. On defense a nose tackle and corner are questionable. New Orleans fell to 2-2 with their 26-9 home defeat to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Saints rushed for 70 yards. They limited the Buccaneers to 114 rushing yards for 3.5 yards per carry and 239 passing on 33 attempts. Derek Carr hit 23 of 37 for 127 yards. He averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt and lost a fumble. Carr was bothered by an AC joint sprain during the week. New Orleans had a -2-turnover margin. New England fell to 1-3 after their 38-3 road defeat to Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots fell behind 28-3 at the half. They rushed for only 53 yards. New England allowed 124 yards to the Cowboys for just over four yards per run. Mac Jones hit 12 of 21 for 150 yards with two interceptions. He averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Jones was benched due to ineffectiveness but will remain as the starter. Patriots better against the run and in limiting big plays in the passing game. Carr is just 17-26 to the spread on the road. Saints have struggled on third down offensively and last in the league in the red zone. Play New England -1.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Ravens at Steelers—Odell Beckham is questionable for Baltimore as is their left tackle. A right tackle is doubtful. On defense a linebacker is out, and corner is questionable. Pittsburgh’s tight end, left tackle and right guard are out on offense. On defense and end is out with linebacker questionable. Baltimore improved to 3-1 with their 28-3 road win at Cleveland. Ravens were up 21-3 at the half. The team rushed for 131 yards. They limited the Browns to under four yards per carry with only 73 passing yards on 36 attempts. Baltimore was 4 of 4 inside the red zone and limited the Browns to 0 of 2. They did face the Browns backup quarterback with the injury to Watson with Cleveland going only 4 of 16 on third down. Lamar Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt and had two rushing yards. Baltimore had a +2-turnover margin. Pittsburgh fell to 2-2 following their 30-6 road defeat at Houston. The Steelers rushed for 114 yards for 4.5 yards a carry. They allowed the Texans 139 yards on the ground with 312 yards passing on 31 attempts. Kenny Pickett completed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an interception. He averaged only 5 yards per attempt. Pickett was questionable with a bone bruise but came off the injury report. Mitch Trubisky is the backup and played in seven games last year with 65% completion rate, four touchdowns, five picks and 7 yards per pass attempt. Lamar Jackson 22-12 to the spread on the road. The Steelers defense struggled by allowing 4.7 yards per run, 11.8 yards per completion and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Ravens are making plays in their passing game with 7 yards per pass completion. Baltimore offense is fifth on third down and best in the red zone. Their defense ranks third in the red zone. Pittsburgh sits 23rd on third down and 28th in red zone offensively. On defense the team sits 22nd in the red zone. Steelers sit 29th in total offense with struggles on the ground and in the passing game. Poor accuracy and only 5.6 yards per pass attempt behind Pickett. Play Baltimore -4.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Giants at Dolphins—New York left tackle and center are out on offense. Running back Saquon Barkley is questionable. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Miami center on offense is questionable. On defense a linebacker is questionable. New York is 1-3 after their 24-3 home defeat on Monday night to the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants rushed for under four yards a carry. They allowed five yards per run to the Seahawks with 160 passing yards on 26 attempts. Daniel Jones completed 27 of 34 for 203 yards and two interceptions. He averaged six yards a carry and rushed for 66 yards. Jones was sacked eleven times and one of his interceptions was returned for a touchdown. Miami fell to 3-1 with their 48-20 road defeat to the Buffalo Bills. Dolphins rushed for 142 yards. They held the Bills to 3.5 yards per run but 310 yards passing on 25 attempts. Tua Tagovailoa hit 25 of 35 for 282 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged 8.1 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa was sacked four times. Miami had a -2-turnover margin. Dolphins has gone over in three and four including in their lone home game. Giants defense on the road giving up an average of 29 points a game. Dolphins pass defense struggling as they allow 71% completion rate, 10.2 yards per completion and 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Miami is number one in total offense in the NFL behind a 6.3 yards per rush average with big plays in the passing game. They average 13.5 yards per completion and 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Giants struggling in pass defense giving up 11.2 yards per completion and 7 yards per pass attempt. Play New York and Miami over 47.5.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Panthers at Lions—Carolina offensive starters are healthy. On defense a safety is out with a corner questionable. Detroit has their receiver Brown doubtful with Reynolds and Williams questionable. Their left tackle and right guard are questionable. On defense a safety is questionable. Carolina falls to 0-4 with their 21-13 home defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The Panthers rushed for under three yards a carry. They surrendered 135 yards on the ground to the Vikings with 130 passing on 19 attempts. Bryce Young completed 25 of 32 for 204 yards. He averaged 6.4 yards per attempt. Young was sacked three times, and his fumble was returned for a Vikings touchdown. Detroit improved to 3-1 with their 34-20 road win on Thursday night to the Green Bay Packers. Lions were up 27-3 at the half. The team rushed for 211 yards. They limited the Packers to 27 rushing yards with 203 passing on 36 attempts. Jared Goff completed 19 of 28 for 210 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Lions have the fourth ranked defense in the NFL by allowing 280 yards a game. Panthers downfield passing attack is 31st by averaging 7.4 yards per completion and 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Lions have balance to their offense. Carolina sits 26th in the league in the red zone. Detroit has done a good job getting off the field on third down sitting 11th in the NFL. Goff is 16-10 as a home favorite. Goff has a 73.5% completion rate at home. Play Detroit -9.5.
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Texans at Falcons—Houston left guard is out with their left tackle questionable. On defense a linebacker is out with defensive tackle and corner questionable. Atlanta starters on offense and defense are healthy. Houston improved to 2-2 after their 30-6 home victory to Pittsburgh Steelers. Texans rushed for 139 yards for 3.5 yards a carry. They allowed 114 yards on the ground to the Steelers with only 111 passing yards on 28 attempts. C.J. Stroud completed 16 of 30 for 308 yards with two touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception this season. Atlanta fell to 2-2 following their 23-7 road defeat to Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Falcons rushed for 127 yards for nearly six yards a carry. They limited the Jaguars to over three yards per run with 195 passing on 30 attempts. They had a -3-turnover margin. Desmond Ridder hit 19 of 31 for 191 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Ridder also lost a fumble, and one interception was returned for a Jaguars touchdown. Two straight wins for Houston and they have played a tough schedule. Falcons’ past two games held to 7 and 6 points. Texans averaging 281 yards a game through the air with efficient passing by averaging 11.8 yards per completion and 7.4 per attempt. Desmond Ridder leads an inefficient passing game with 8.4 yards per completion and 5.3 per pass attempt plus struggles on third down. Texans pass defense has been outstanding. Houston moves the chains sitting fourth on third down. Play Houston +2.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Titans at Colts—Tennessee receiver Bucks is out. On defense their nose tackle is out. Indianapolis left tackle is out. On defense their defensive end and a linebacker is out. Tennessee improved to 2-2 with their 27-3 home victory to Cincinnati Bengals. Titans found their run game with 173 yards on the ground. They limited the Bengals to 72 rushing yards with 139 yards passing on 30 attempts. Ryan Tannehill hit 18 of 25 for 240 yards with a touchdown and interception. Derrick Henry had 122 rushing yards and completed a touchdown pass. Indianapolis fell to 2-2 after their 29-23 home overtime defeat to Los Angeles Rams. The Colts fell behind 23-0 midway through the third quarter. The team rushed for 133 yards. They gave up 164 rushing yards to the Rams with 303 passing on 40 attempts. Anthony Richardson completed 11 of 25 for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 8 yards per pass attempt and rushed for 56 yards with a touchdown. Richardson returned after missing the previous week with a concussion. The Titans sit 28th in total offense with struggles in the passing game by averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. Colts have defended the run well allowing 3.8 yards per attempt. This is a high-volume passing attack for the Colts that is third in the red zone. The Titans defense allowed 71% completions and 7 yards per pass attempt. Tennessee offense is 24th on third down and 29th in red zone. Titans have lost both road games averaging nine points a game. Tannehill on the road is completing 49.2%, three interceptions and 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Play Indianapolis +2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Bengals at Cardinals—Tee Higgins is questionable for Cincinnati. On defense a linebacker is out with defensive end, linebacker and both cornerbacks are questionable. Arizona has their right guard questionable. On defense a defensive tackle is out with linebacker questionable. Cincinnati fell to 1-3 with their 27-3 road defeat to the Tennessee Titans. Bengals went up 3-0 early then got outscored 27-0 the rest of the way. They rushed for 72 yards for four yards a carry. Titans surrendered 173 yards on the ground to the Titans with 227 passing on 26 attempts. Joe Burrow completed 20 of 30 passes for 165 yards for 5.5 yards per attempt. Burrow told the media on Wednesday that his calf feels better. Arizona drops to 1-3 following their 35-16 road defeat to San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals rushed for 105 yards for just over four yards a carry. They gave up 124 yards on the ground to the 49ers with 271 passing on 21 attempts. Joshua Dobbs hit 28 of 41 for 265 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He rushed for 48 yards. Cincinnati has the worst offense in the NFL with 236 yards per game and 4.1 per play. They average just 4.4 yards per pass attempt, sitting 32nd in the league. The health of Joe Burrow is a concern with his calf. Dobbs has been accurate completing 71% of his throws. Bengals defense allowing 5.1 yards per run, 10.8 yards per completion and 6.9 yards per pass attempt sitting in the lower third of the league. The team is 26th on third down. Cardinals does a good job on third down and red zone. Bengals in their two road games have been outscored 51-6. Burrow on the road averaging only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. Play Arizona +3.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Eagles at Rams—Philadelphia’s offensive starters are healthy. On defense a tackle is out. Los Angeles has a right guard out and left tackle is questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Philadelphia improved to 4-0 with their 34-31 home overtime victory to Washington. The Eagles rushed for 104 yards for under three yards a carry. They allowed 107 yards on the ground to the Commanders with 258 passing on 41 attempts. Jalen Hurts completed 25 of 37 for 319 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Los Angeles improved to 2-2 after their 29-23 road overtime victory at Indianapolis. Rams blew a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. They rushed for 165 yards. Los Angeles allowed 133 yards on the ground to Indianapolis with 196 passing on 25 attempts. Matthew Stafford completed 27 of 40 for 319 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged 8 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles have the fifth rated offense in the NFL and rush for 4.7 yards a carry. Rams are allowing 4.4 yards per rush and holding passing offenses to 5.9 yards per attempt. Rams are a high-volume passing team and the Eagles do allow 67.1% completion rate. Philadelphia running game can open the passing attack here on this fast track. Los Angeles has been efficient in the passing game by averaging 11.2 yards per completion and 7 yards per pass attempt. Eagles’ offense was good on third down. But they sit 25th defensively on third down and 28th in red zone. Rams’ offense has been good on third down and in the red zone. But defensively they sit 26th in the red zone. Play Los Angeles and Philadelphia over 50.5.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Jets at Broncos—New York offensive starters are healthy. On defense a cornerback is out. Denver running back Javonte Williams is questionable as is their center. Their starters on defense are healthy. New York fell to 1-3 with their 23-20 home defeat to Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets rushed for 108 yards on eighteen carries. They surrendered 204 rushing yards to the Chiefs with 197 passing on 30 attempts. Zach Wilson completed 28 of 39 for 245 yards with two touchdowns. He averaged 6.3 yards per completion. Denver improved to 1-3 with their 31-28 road win at Chicago Bears. The Broncos overcame a 28-7 deficit late in the third quarter. They gained 97 rushing yards on 19 carries. Denver allowed 171 yards rushing to the Bears with 300 passing on 35 attempts. Russell Wilson completed 21 of 28 for 223 yards with three touchdowns. He averaged 8 yards per completion. The Broncos had a +2-turnover margin. New York sits with the 30th ranked offense in the NFL by averaging 253 yards a game. The passing game is near the bottom with 8.7 yards per completion and 5.1 yards per attempt. Denver has the worst ranked defense in the NFL in about every area. But at home they play much better, holding teams to 324 yards a game and 3.5 yards per rush. In the Jets road game they were held to 215 yards and ten points with the defense coughing up 364 yards. New York is 32nd and last on third down with their defense 28th. The Broncos in their past three games have averaged 28 points a game with 358 yards. Play Denver -2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Chiefs at Vikings—Kansas City has healthy starters of offense. On defense a middle linebacker is questionable. Minnesota starters are healthy. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Kansas City improved to 3-1 after their 23-20 road win at New York Jets. Chiefs rushed for 204 yards. They allowed 108 yards on the ground to New York with 228 passing on 39 attempts. Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of 30 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He rushed for 51 yards. Minnesota is 1-3 with their 21-13 road win at Carolina. The Vikings ran for 135 yards with over five yards a carry. They held the Panthers to 83 rushing yards with 149 passing on 32 attempts. Minnesota got a touchdown on a fumble recovery. Kirk Cousins hit 12 of 19 for 139 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. One interception was returned for a 99-yard touchdown for Carolina. Chiefs have the third rated offense in the NFL with 393 yards a game. They are running for 4.7 yards a carry and efficient in the passing game by averaging 10.8 yards per completion and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The Vikings struggled defensively against the pass by allowing 76.6% completions with 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota has the third rated passing offense and is efficient at it. KC sits third offensively on third down. Patrick Mahomes in his road games is 26-14 to the over. AFC vs. NFC so these teams don’t know each other very well so it favors the offense. Play Kansas City and Minnesota over 52.5.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/8/2023
Cowboys at 49ers—Dallas starters on offense are healthy. On defense a middle linebacker is questionable. San Francisco starters on offense and defense are healthy. Dallas improved to 3-1 with their 38-3 home victory to New England Patriots. The Cowboys rushed for 124 yards. They limited the Patriots to under two yards a carry with 200 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Dallas had a +3 turnover margin returning a fumble and interception for touchdowns. Dak Prescott hit 28 of 34 for 261 yards with a touchdown. He averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco is 4-0 following their 35-16 home win to Arizona Cardinals. 49ers rushed for 124 yards for four yards a carry. They allowed 105 yards on the ground to the Cardinals for 4.1 yards per carry with 257 passing on 41 attempts. 49ers were 5 of 5 inside the red zone. Brock Purdy hit 20 of 21 for 283 yards with a touchdown. He averaged 13.5 yards per completion with a rushing touchdown. They faced off in the playoffs the past two seasons with wins by the 49ers by six and seven. San Francisco is fifth in total defense by allowing 284 yards a game. Dallas runs and passes about evenly. The passing game is not stretching out down field with 8.8 yards per completion and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Brock Purdy is 8-1 to the spread as a home favorite. 49ers are second in total offense by averaging 398 yards a game. They are getting 4.6 yards a carry on the ground and the Cowboys struggle in that area by allowing 4.6 yards per carry. 49ers are a big play passing team by averaging 12.1 yards per completion and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Cowboys offensively sit 30th in the red zone. Dallas is without their best defensive player for the season in Trevon Diggs. Without him they dropped a 28-16 decision at Arizona. 49ers have won their home games by an average of 18.5 points a game and their four wins have been by seven points or greater. Play San Francisco -3.5.