Free MLB Picks For Today 4/28/2024
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Dodgers at Blue Jays—Ryan Yarbrough to start for Los Angeles. Yarbrough appeared in eight games with an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 0.78. The lefthander is striking out 11.2% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.6% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.85 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers. Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman has five starts with an ERA of 5.57 with WHIP of 1.57. The veteran has seen his K rate drop to 18.6% with 6.2% walks. Grounders sat at 43.7% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Gausman has been hammered in his home starts this season. Toronto bullpen in their ten home games has an ERA of 6.99. Los Angeles is hitting .297 against righthanded starters and putting up 6.2 runs per game against them. In their eleven road games they are hitting .293 with a bullpen ERA of 2.88. Play Los Angeles +116.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Royals at Tigers—Michael Wacha to start for Kansas City. Wacha has five starts in 2024 dealing an ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.27. The veteran is striking out 21.4% with 7.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 41.3% with 0.64 home runs per nine innings. Tarik Skubal will start for Detroit. Skubal in five starts with an ERA of 1.82 with WHIP of 0.74. The lefthander has a K rate of 31.3% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46.5% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Tigers in their eleven home games are hitting .209. The Twins in their ten on the road are hitting .205. Kansas City is 10-2 to the under facing an AL Team batting .255 or worse this season. Skubal 18-6 to the under at home facing an AL team with an OBP of .330 or worse on the year. Play Kansas City and Detroit under 7.5.
St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Cardinals at Mets—Lance Lynn will start for St Louis. Lynn has five starts in 2024 posting an ERA of 2.81 with WHIP of 1.36. The veteran is striking out 22.8% with 8.8% walks. Grounders served at 37.3% with 1.40 home runs per nine innings. Jose Quintana to start for New York. Quintana in five starts has an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.60. The lefthander fans 17.4% with 12.2% walks. Grounders served at 46.9% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
New York bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.05 in their thirteen games. Lynn home run rate a concern. St Louis has struggled to get runs on the board this season. They are 3-9 in their 12 Day Games hitting .204. Play New York -110.
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Yankees at Brewers—Marcus Stroman to start for New York. Stroman in five starts on the campaign produces an ERA of 2.93 with WHIP of 1.23. The veteran has seen his strikeouts rise to 24.3% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 57.3% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Tobias Myers will start for Milwaukee. Myers in his MLB debut allowed one run with four strikeouts in five innings of work. A sixth round pick in 2016 at 17 years old who spent parts of nine years in the minor leagues. He pitched well in Triple-A this year working 16 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
New York in their fourteen road games has a bullpen ERA of 1.89. In their seventeen games against right-handed starters they have averaged 4.9 runs per game and won thirteen of those games. Play New York -132.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Reds at Rangers—Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott has five starts on the year with an ERA of 2.60 and WHIP of 1.12. The lefthander fans 17.7% with 9.7% walks. Grounders dished at 32.9% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.37 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Dane Dunning will start for Texas. Dunning in five starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 4.61 with WHIP of 1.28. The righthander is striking out 25% with 13.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 42.6% with 2.30 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Rangers bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.41 in their fourteen games. The Reds are batting .193 in their ten road games. Cincinnati bullpen on the road has an ERA of 4.73. Abbott high contact a concern against this Rangers lineup. Play Texas -127.
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Cubs at Red Sox—Jordan Wicks to start for Chicago. Wicks in five starts on the year produces an ERA of 4.70 with WHIP of 1.52. The lefthander fans 16.3% with 7.5% walks. Grounders served at 37.7% with 0.78 home runs per nine innings. Tanner Houck will start for Boston. Houck has five starts with an ERA of 1.65 with WHIP of 0.98. The righthander strikes out 24.6% with 3.8% walks. Grounders dished at 52.7% with minimal home run damage.
The Pick:
The Red Sox bullpen in their eleven home games have an ERA of 6.40 and bat .198. Chicago is putting up five runs per game in their 21 games against right-handed starters and they have won 15 of those games this year. The team record behind Houck 5-17 when lined at +125 to -125 with a -12.1-unit loss. The Red Sox are 26-28 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the past two seasons with a -14.1 unit loss. Play Chicago +110.
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Athletics at Orioles—Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn has five starts in 2024 producing an ERA of 2.03 with WHIP of 0.97. The righthander strikes out 19.2% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls served at 52.8% with minimal home run damage. Albert Suarez to start for Baltimore. Suarez in two starts allowed no runs with nine strikeouts in 11 1/3rd innings of work. He started the year in Triple A allowing ten earned runs with 17 strikeouts in 15 1/3rd innings. He has a career ERA of 4.11 with WHIP of 1.24 in 42 career appearances. He spent the past five seasons in Japan and Korea. The Athletics are hitting .195 against right-handed starters putting up 2.7 runs per game. The Oakland bullpen on the road is 2.72 in their fifteen games. Blackburn is 11-1 to the under as a road underdog of +125 to +175 the past three seasons. Play Oakland and Baltimore under 8.5.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Guardians at Braves—Ben Lively to start for Cleveland. Lively has two starts on the year allowing three earned runs with fourteen strikeouts in 11 1/3rd innings. He started his season late with a viral illness that placed him on the IL. He appeared in 19 games last year posting an ERA of 5.38 with WHIP of 1.36 striking out 79 batters with 20 homers in 88 2/3rd innings. Bryce Elder to start for Atlanta. Elder in his 2024 debut allowed no runs with four strikeouts in 6 2/3rd innings. He started the year in Triple A allowing six earned runs with 18 strikeouts in 16 1/3rd innings. The righty had 31 starts last year dealing an ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.28. He fanned 17.5% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 49.9% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. His fade down the stretch cost him a spot in the rotation following Spring Training.
The Pick:
The Guardians in their 15 road games have a bullpen ERA of 2.47 winning 11 of those games. The Guardians are 5-0 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season and 9-2 in Day Games with a +8.7 unit return. Play Cleveland +166.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Rays at White Sox—Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell in five starts delivers an ERA of 3.33 with WHIP of 1.37. The righthander fans 25% with 4.3% walks. Ground balls served at 30.5% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. Erick Fedde will start for Chicago. Fedde has five starts in 2024 posts an ERA of 2.73 with WHIP of 1.14. The veteran deals 27.3% K’s with 8.2% walks. Grounders sit at 47.1% with 1.71 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.48 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Tampa Bay in their eighteen games against right-handed starters are hitting .233 losing ten of those games. Their bullpen ERA in their 11 road games is 4.54. The White Sox run production is improving. The Rays pitching staff is getting pounded in this series. Play Chicago +127.
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Astros at Rockies—Game played in Mexico City. Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez in two starts allowed three earned runs with ten strikeouts in 12 1/3rd innings. He returns from the IL with an elbow. Last year he struck out 24.8% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 54.2% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. Austin Gomber to start for Colorado. Gomber has five starts with an ERA of 4.32 with WHIP of 1.48. The lefthander strikes out 18.2% with 10% walks. Ground balls served at 45.6% with 1.44 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Both bullpens have struggled this season. Houston is batting .263 against left-handed starters. Framber was pounded in his lone road start this year. Play Houston and Colorado over 16.
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Twins at Angels—Pablo Lopez to start for Minnesota. Lopez in five starts delivers an ERA of 4.39 with WHIP of 1.05. The veteran strikes out 27.4% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls served at 43.7% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. Reid Detmers to start for Los Angeles. Detmers has five starts with an ERA of 2.12 with WHIP of 1.04. The righthander is striking out 29.6% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.9% with 0.61 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Los Angeles bullpen at home has an ERA of 7.12 in their 11 games. The Twins bullpen in their fourteen road games sit at 3.24. Minnesota has shown improvement hitting the past seven games. Team record behind Lopez is 19-6 when lined at -100 to -150 with a +11.6 unit return. Play Minnesota -106.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Pirates at Giants—Jared Jones to start for Pittsburgh. Jones in five starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 2.79 with WHIP of 0.83. The righthander strikes out 34.8% with 3.6% walks. Ground balls served at 42.6% with 1.55 home runs per nine innings. Keaton Winn to start for San Francisco. Winn has five starts on the campaign dealing an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 1.04. The righty fans 21.3% with 8.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 58.9% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Pirates in their nineteen games against right-handed starters are batting .224. The Giants are 41-18 to the under when favored a home by -110 or higher the past two seasons. They have been a light hitting team at home the year. Play Pittsburgh and San Francisco under 7.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Diamondbacks at Mariners—Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt in five starts carries an ERA of 4.97 with WHIP of 1.17. The righthander fans 22.1% with 4.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 38.4% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings. Logan Gilbert to start for Seattle. Gilbert has five starts delivering an ERA of 1.87 with WHIP of 0.80. The righty has a K rate of 27.8% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.2% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.33 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Arizona is batting .210 in their fifteen games against right-handed starters. They have lost 10 of their 15 on the road. Their bullpen ERA in these fifteen road games is 5.28. Seattle bullpen in their fifteen home games is 2.08 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 11-26 facing an AL team that holds opponents to 4.4 runs per game or fewer. Pfaadt in his two road starts carries an ERA of 5.73. Play Seattle -134.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/28/2024
Phillies at Padres—Taijuan Walker to start for Philadelphia. Walker makes his 2024 debut after a shoulder injury. The veteran had 31 starts last year with an ERA of 4.38 with WHIP of 1.31. Walker struck out 18.8% with 9.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 44.6% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. Michael King will start for San Diego. King appeared in six games with an ERA of 4.11 with WHIP of 1.43. The righthander fanned 24.8% with 13.1% walks. Ground balls served at 41.7% with 2.05 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.66 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Phillies are hitting .279 and putting up 5.6 runs per game against righthanders in their 17 games against them winning 13. The Padres are batting .232 at home where they have lost 10 of 16. Team record behind Walker 21-10 the past two seasons with a +10 unit return. San Diego is 17-24 when lined at home at -100 to -150 with a -12.6 unit return the past two seasons. Play Philadelphia +130.