Free NFL Picks For Today 9/17/2023
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Packers at Falcons—Green Bay running back Aaron Jones is questionable as is wide receiver Christian Watson. Their left tackle was questionable. Defensive starters are healthy. Atlanta has healthy starters on offense. A linebacker is out with a corner questionable. Green Bay is 1-0 after their 38-20 road win against the Chicago Bears. Packers rushed for just under three yards per attempt. Defensively they did allow four yards per rush to Chicago with only 189 passing yards on 37 attempts. Green Bay was 3 of 3 inside the red zone and had a +2-turnover margin. Jordon Love completed 55.6% of his throws for 9.1 yards per attempt, passing for 245 yards and three touchdowns. Atlanta is 1-0 following their 24-10 home victory to the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons outscored the Panthers 14-0 in the final quarter in victory. The Falcons rushed for five yards a carry in the win. Defensively they allowed five yards per rush to the Panthers but only 127 yards passing on 38 attempts. Falcons were 3 of 3 inside the red zone and had a +3-turnover margin. Desmond Ridder was 15 of 18 for 115 yards, a touchdown but only 6.4 yards per attempt. Falcons defended well in their opening week win. The Jones injury is impactful here as Love plays his first true road game and could be without his lead back. It is a back to back road game for Green Bay and their first year starting quarterback. But Atlanta was only able to gain 221 yards on the Panthers defense at home with lack of downfield passing game. Play Green Bay and Atlanta under 40.5.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Raiders at Bills—Las Vegas wide receiver Jakob Meyers is out. Their right defensive end is out. Buffalo has healthy starters on offense and defense. Las Vegas is 1-0 after their 17-16 road win at Denver. Raiders run game sputtered with only 61 yards on 29 carries. The defense allowed 4.5 yards per run to the Broncos with 166 passing on 34 attempts. Raiders went 2 of 4 inside the red zone. Jimmy Garoppolo efficient debut completing 20 of 26 for 200 yards with 7.7 yards per attempt. He had two touchdowns and an interception. Garoppolo engineered the fourth quarter game winning touchdown. Denver was without receiver Jerry Jeudy. Buffalo fell to 0-1 with their 22-16 road defeat on Monday night to the New York Jets. Bills were held to just three points in the second half. They ran for 4.5 yards per rush. Defensively they did allow New York nearly six yards per carry on the ground but only 117 passing yards on 22 attempts. Bills have a -3 turnover margin. Josh Allen had four turnovers with three picks and a lost fumble. He completed 71% of his throws for 236 yards but only 5.8 yards per attempt along with a touchdown pass. He rushed it six times for 36 yards. Short week for Buffalo. Garoppolo is 11-3 to the spread as a road underdog. Buffalo faced a one-dimensional offense by the Jets and were unable to win with mistakes costly. The play of the Raiders defense is encouraging. Josh Jacobs could do some damage on a Bills defense that allowed 6.1 yards per carry to the Jets behind a backup quarterback. There is enough balance on the Raiders offense to cover this huge number coupled with improvement defensively. Play Las Vegas +8.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Ravens at Bengals—Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins is out for the season. Their tight end Andrews is questionable. Ravens left tackle and center are out. On defense a corner and free safety are out. Cincinnati has healthy starters on offense and defense. Baltimore is 1-0 on the year after their 25-9 home victory to Houston Texans. The Ravens put up only 265 yards on the Texans with nearly 3.5 yards per rush. They limited Houston to just three yards per run and 196 passing yards on 44 attempts. Lamar Jackson hit 17 of 22 for 169 yards and an interception. He rushed for 38 yards on six carries. Cincinnati is 0-1 after their 24-3 road defeat at Cleveland. Poor offensive showing for Cincinnati as they finished with 142 yards with 75 rushing on 20 carries. They gave up 5.1 yards per rush to the Browns with 144 passing yards on 29 attempts. Joe Burrow hit just 14 of 31 passes for 82 yards and a miniscule 2.6 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals sat their starters during the preseason, and it showed last week. Burrow has been a good bounce back quarterback. Five starters out for Baltimore and healthy starters for the Bengals. Cincinnati has won four of five against the Ravens. Burrow lifetime 3-0 against the Ravens at home. Past three home wins against the Ravens have been by seven points or greater. Play Cincinnati -3.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Seahawks at Lions—Seattle left tackle on offense is out. On defense out is a safety with a linebacker questionable. Detroit has their left tackle out with starters healthy on defense. Seattle fell to 0-1 after their 30-13 home defeat to LA Rams. The Seahawks have lost five of seven dating back to last year. The Seahawks rushed for just over four yards per carry. They limited the Rams to under three yards per attempt but 334 passing yards on 38 attempts. Geno Smith was 16 of 26 for 112 yards and a touchdown averaging only 4.3 yards per attempt. Seattle allowed LA three of three red zone conversions. Seattle was without both offensive tackles by the second half to injuries. Detroit is 1-0 with their 21-20 home victory to Kansas City Chiefs. The Lions rushed for 3.5 yards per attempt. They did limit the Chiefs ground attack and held the defending Super Bowl champion to 226 passing yards on 39 attempts. Jared Goff completed 63% of his passes with a touchdown and 7.2 yards per attempt. Dating back to last season the Seahawks have lost seven of ten. Seattle had just 95 yards passing on to the Rams last week. Lions extra rest and put on a great defensive performance on Kansas City. The Lions had success moving the football through the air on the Chiefs. Goff last year at home against Seattle threw for 378 yards, 9.7 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and a pick. The Lions finished with 520 yards for the game. Goff in his career 15-9 to the spread as a home favorite. Play Detroit -4.5.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Colts at Texans—Indianapolis tight end and left guard are questionable. Colts defensive starters are healthy. Texans quarterback Stroud and left tackle are questionable. On defense both safeties are out. Indianapolis is 0-1 after their 31-21 home defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Colts have lost eight straight dating back to last year. They rushed for under three yards per run. They allowed 342 yards to the Jaguars with 237 passing on 32 attempts. Colts allowed 3 of 3 red zone conversions to the Jags. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson hit 65% of his passes for 223 yards with six yards per attempt. He averaged 6 yards per attempt with a touchdown and pick. He suffered a knee bruise late in the game but told the media that he will be fine. Houston fell to 0-1 after their 25-9 road defeat to the Baltimore Ravens. The Texans’ offense posted 268 yards with under four yards per rush. Defensively they limited the Ravens to 265 yards. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was 28 of 44 for 242 yards averaging only 5.5 yards per attempt. He did turnover the ball with a fumble. Stroud is dealing with a shoulder injury. Was limited to Friday practice. Davis Mills or Case Keenum are options at quarterback. Richardson showed flashes facing a quality opponent in his Colts debut. The Texans averaged just four yards per play last week. Colts run defense was impressive last week. Prefer Richardson here. Play Indianapolis +1.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Chiefs at Jaguars—Kelce questionable for Kansas City. The Chiefs defensive starters are healthy. Jacksonville center and right guard are questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. Kansas City fell to 0-1 with their 21-20 home defeat to the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs were without their tight end Kelce and defensive end Jones. The team rushed for four yards per attempt. They did limit the Lions to just over three yards per run with 250 passing on 35 attempts. Each team had one turnover, but the Lions returned an interception for a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes completed just 53.8% of his passes with 5.8 yards per attempt. He finished with 226 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception due to a dropped pass by his receiver. Jacksonville is 1-0 after their 31-21 road victory at Indianapolis Colts. Jaguars rushed for only three yards a carry. They did limit Indianapolis to under three yards per rush. Jacksonville allowed the rookie quarterback Richardson to 215 passing yards on 39 attempts. Trevor Lawrence gave a strong performance completing 75% of his passes with 241 yards and 7.5 yards per attempt. He finished with two touchdowns and an interception. Kansas City is 3-11 to the spread against the AFC. If Kelce plays the question is how effective, he will be. There is a lot to like from their Jaguars offense. Jacksonville in their playoff loss at Kansas City were able to generate balance offensively and improved on the ground from their meeting two months earlier. Under Mahomes the Chiefs are 13-18 to the spread as a road favorite. Lawrence historically at home 7-5 to the spread as a home underdog. Would rather take the points here with the Jags with possible heat and wet weather. The climate will play to their advantage. Play Jacksonville +3.5.
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Bears at Buccaneers—Chicago right guard is doubtful. Their defensive starters are healthy. Tampa Bay offensive starters are healthy but on defense the left defensive end and corner are out. Chicago fell to 0-1 with their 38-20 home defeat to Green Bay. Bears rushed for four yards per attempt. Defensively they limited the Packers on the ground to under three yards a carry. The Bears surrendered 237 passing yards on 27 attempts. Justin Fields completed 65% of his throws with 5.8 yards per attempt. He had a touchdown and interception and passed for 216 yards. He rushed for 59 yards on nine carries. The Bears allowed 3 of 3 red zone conversions and had a -2-turnover margin. Tampa Bay is 1-0 following their 20-17 road win at Minnesota. The Buccaneers finished with 242 offensive yards with 73 rushing on 33 carries. They limited the Vikings ground attack to under three yards per rush and allowed 328 yards passing on 44 attempts. Baker Mayfield went 21 of 34 with two touchdowns and only 5.1 yards per attempt. He finished with 173 passing yards. The Bucs had a +2-turnover margin. Buccaneers benefitted by Vikings mistake and misfortune. Their offense numbers were not good. Justin Fields showed some balance to their offense last week and is the mobile quarterback here. Tampa Bay defense gave up a lot of yardage to Minnesota along with 6 yards per play. Baker Mayfield is 8-15 to the spread as a home favorite. Play Chicago +2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Chargers at Titans—Los Angeles running back Austin Ekeler is out. On defense a linebacker is out, and Joey Bosa is questionable. Tennessee receiver Hopkins is questionable, and their left guard is out. On defense a safety and corner are out. Los Angeles fell to 0-1 after their 36-34 home defeat to the Miami Dolphins. Los Angeles saw massive improvement to their ground game with 234 yards rushing on 40 attempts. On defense they limited the Dolphins to 3.5 yards per rush but 466 yards passing on 45 attempts. Justin Herbert went 23 of 33 for 229 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt. There were seven lead changes in this exciting game. Los Angeles did have a +2 turnover margin. Tennessee fell to 0-1 after their 16-15 road defeat at New Orleans. Eight straight losses dating back to last season. Titans rushed for just under five yards a carry. They limited the Saints to under three yards per rush but 282 passing yards on 33 attempts. Titans were 0 of 3 in the red zone and made 5 of 5 field goals. Ryan Tannehill went just 16 of 34 for 198 yards and three interceptions plus took three sacks. The Charger offense was effective last week, moving the football on the ground and air. Ekeler is an overrated player who is replaceable. Dating back to last season the Chargers have lost three straight, all high scoring affairs by three points or fewer. Also dating back to last season, they have scored 28 or greater points in four straight games. Herbert 9-3 to the over as a road favorite. Tannehill 8-4 to the over as a home underdog. Chargers defense was torched last week. The Titans offense can get better here but they will have trouble stopping the Chargers offense with two starters in the secondary out. Play Los Angeles and Tennessee over 45.5.
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Giants at Cardinals—New York left tackle is questionable. On defense a linebacker is doubtful. Arizona starters are healthy on offense. On defense a linebacker is out with a defensive tackle and free safety questionable. New York is 0-1 after their 40-0 home defeat to the Dallas Cowboys. New York gained four yards per rush and was terrible in the passing game. The Giants allowed four yards per run to the Cowboys with 143 passing on 25 attempts. They had a -3 turnover margin. Daniel Jones went 15 of 28 for 104 yards and two picks. He did run it 13 times for 43 yards. New York gave up first quarter touchdowns via interception and blocked field goal. The game was played under rainfall. Arizona is 0-1 after their 20-16 road defeat to the Washington Commanders. The losing streak is eight games dating to last year. Arizona rushed for just under four yards per attempt with a very poor passing performance. Defensively they held Washington to just over three yards a carry with 156 passing on 31 attempts. The Cardinals did register six quarterback sacks. Josua Dobbs was 21 of 30 for 132 yards and only 4.4 yards per attempt. Dating back to last season the Giants have been outscored 78-7 in their past two games. Arizona did put up a good defensive effort on the Commanders. It is the offense that is concerning for the Cardinals as well as the three starters on defense banged up. The Giants suffered a total embarrassment and were pounded in back to back games by good divisional foes dating back to last season. It was a driving rain for the New York offense to work in last week. This is the ultimate get right game. Play New York -4.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
49ers at Rams—San Francisco starters on offense and defense are healthy. Los Angeles receiver Nacua is questionable. On defense a linebacker and safety are questionable. San Francisco is 1-0 with their 30-7 road win at Pittsburgh. The 49ers had 34 rushing attempts with 188 yards. They allowed only 41 rushing yards to the Steelers with 198 passing on 46 attempts. Brock Purdy went 19 of 29 for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. Steelers didn’t get a first down until the final two minutes of the first half. Los Angeles is 1-0 after their 30-13 road win at Seattle. Rams were limited on the ground to under 2.5 yards per carry. They held the Seahawks to only 180 yards with 95 passing on 26 attempts. Rams went 3 for 3 inside the red zone. Matthew Stafford was 24 of 38 for 334 yards and 8.8 yards per attempt. Cooper Kupp missed the game with a hamstring injury and will miss the next three games. Dating back to last season the 49ers have won nine of ten. Rams put on a monster defensive effort last week on the road. Back to back road games for San Francisco after a long trip to Pittsburgh. Rams protected Stafford and the offense performed well. Play Los Angeles +7.5.
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Jets at Cowboys—New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers out for the season. Running back Hall and both their offensive tackles are questionable. The defensive starters are healthy. The New York Jets are 1-0 this season after their 22-16 home overtime victory to the Buffalo Bills. Jets rushed for six yards a carry with limited production from the passing game. They surrendered 4.5 yards per run to the Bills with 217 passing on 41 attempts. New York had a +3-turnover margin. Zach Wilson went 14 of 21 for 140 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Wilson is in for an injured Aaron Rodgers who lost for the season. The Jets win on a 65 yards punt return in overtime. Dallas is 1-0 following their 40-0 road win at the New York Giants. The Cowboys built the 26-0 lead after one quarter. The team ran for 4 yards per carry. They held New York to four yards a carry on the ground but only 63 passing yards on 30 attempts. Dak Prescott went 13 of 24 for 143 yards with a touchdown. He averaged just six yards per pass attempt. The game was played in heavy rain at times. Dallas had two first quarter touchdowns by a block field goal return and interception return. Cowboys had a +3-turnover margin. New York attempted only 22 passes last week. It will be a conservative game plan for the Jets in this spot. The Cowboys rushed 30 times last week as the team wants to preserve their defense. New York will have trouble scoring here and Dallas with a lead will milk clock. Play New York and Dallas under 38.5.
Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Commanders at Broncos—Washington and Denver starters on offense and defense are healthy. Washington is 1-0 after their 20-16 home victory to Arizona Cardinals. Commanders rushed for three yards per attempt with below par work from their passing game. They did limit Arizona to under four yards per rush with 115 passing on 30 attempts. Commanders did allow six sacks and had a -1 turnover margin. Sam Howell was 19 of 31 for 202 yards with a touchdown and interception plus a lost fumble. He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Denver is 0-1 after their 17-16 home defeat to Las Vegas Raiders. Broncos rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt. They did shut down the Raider run game for two yards per attempt with 200 passing yards on 26 attempts. Russell Wilson was 27 of 34 for 177 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt. A missed extra point was costly for Denver. Jerry Jeudy did not play. Both offenses gained well below 300 yards last week. The Commanders defense shined above any of the units on the field here. Sam Howell is 2-0 straight up as a starter. Russell Wilson just 12-18 to the spread as a home favorite. Play Washington +3.5.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Pick Prediction 9/17/2023
Dolphins at Patriots—Miami has a left tackle questionable. On defense a linebackers is questionable. New England wide receiver DeVante Parker is questionable. Both guards and left tackle are questionable. On defense a corner is questionable. Miami is 1-0 with their 36-34 road win at Los Angeles Chargers. Dolphins rushed for 3.5 yards per carry with a monster passing game. They did allow LA nearly six yards per rush on 40 carries along with 200 passing yards on 33 attempts. A huge performance by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hitting 28 of 45 for 66 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. New England is 0-1 after their 25-20 home defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots fell behind 16-0 after one quarter and whittled their way back in contention. New England rushed for under four yards per carry with high volume passing. They held the Eagles to under four yards per carry with 154 passing on 33 attempts. Mac Jones completed 35 of 54 for 316 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. Those Patriots injuries on the offensive line are a massive concern. Respect the work by the Patriots defense in Philadelphia. The Dolphins defense were on the field for 77 snaps last week. They were on a cross country flight last week and play in back-to-back road games against a divisional foe coming off a loss. Mac Jones 0-6 straight up and 1-5 to the spread as a home underdog. Tua looks sharp and will back him to overcome this bad travel spot. Miami is the healthier team. Tua 4-0 straight up and to the spread against a Bill Belichick team. Play Miami -2.5.