Pittsburgh Pirates (49-60) vs Milwaukee Brewers (59-52)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers 8/6/2023 — Pittsburgh only beat its division rivals twice this year, with Friday’s 8-4 victory being the first. Head-to-head was not particularly attractive, but they can add another with this match, as indicated by baseball match predictions. They’ll probably start it off again with an offense. The Pirates had trouble scoring throughout the season, averaging only 2.4 runs per game. When they score more than five runs against the Brewers, they are 2-1. The Pirates’ OBP ranks only 25th, despite having a top-five walk rate. A batting average, slugging percentage, and home run ranking in the bottom 10 don’t help either. It may seem obvious, but this club will benefit greatly from scoring. On the mound, things were not always rosy either.
This squad fell to fourth place in the NL Central due to a mediocre rotation and a fragile group of relievers. The Pirates bullpen entered the game in 90 save situations with a 70.0% save rate. The relievers took over 164 runners in the current season, and 33.5% reached base. Pitchers in the Pirates bullpen entered games 106 times with runners on base and made 104 appearances in high-leverage situations. This season, the Pirates sent 347 relievers to the mound. The bullpen has 48 holds this season, ranking 27th in MLB. They made 28 saves so far this year but just 12 of their 40 chances to do so.
Milwaukee has a remarkable 23-11 record against their division rivals, even after their defeat on Friday. That will be the reason if they win the division, which they now lead by less than a game. The Brewers’ hitters come through against the NL Central with a better slash line of .249/.342/.391 than they do versus any other division. Otherwise, they frequently have scoring issues, ranking 23rd in runs scored per game. Their third-highest walk rate in MLB compensates for a strikeout percentage that ranks in the bottom ten.
Milwaukee ranks 10th in terms of base stealers. They are still among the bottom ten clubs in terms of batting average (27th), OBP (24th), slugging percentage (28th), and home runs (22nd), just like the Pirates. The Brewers accumulated 70 holds, and 16 missed saves out of 122 save opportunities. In 51 save opportunities, Milwaukee used relief pitchers to enter the game, and they have 35 saves to their credit.
Their bullpen pitchers entered the game in high-stakes situations and on 80 occasions with runners on base. Out of their 115 inherited base runners, Milwaukee bullpen pitchers have an inherited scoring percentage of 29.6%. With a save percentage of 68.6%, they are ranked seventh in baseball and used 350 bullpen pitchers this season.
Pirates vs. Brewers Game Info
| When: | August 6, 2023 2:10 PM ET |
|---|---|
| Where: | American Family Field, WI |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Stream: | MLB.TV |
Johan Oviedo (3-8, 5.7 ERA) vs Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 0.68 ERA)
The task of winning the season finale will fall to Johan Oviedo. Oviedo struggled in his lone start against the Brewers, giving up eight runs and nine hits in 5.0 innings. In the defeat, he only had one strikeout. Three of Oviedo’s most recent opponents were limited to just one run. Let’s see if he can repeat the feat.
The Brewers’ superior pitching makes a difference. On Sunday, Brandon Woodruff, who did not pitch since April, will rejoin that pitching staff. The two-time All-Star gave up just one run over his first 11.1 innings of this season’s pitching. He has a 3.15 FIP, 1.066 WHIP, and a 3.14 ERA throughout the course of his career. This talented veteran will support Milwaukee’s postseason drive if he pitches to his potential.
MLB Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates +178
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends
The total went OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 matches.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 2-8 SU in their last 10 matches against Milwaukee.
Pittsburgh Pirates are 6-12 SU in their last 18 matches on the road.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The total went OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 9 matches.
Milwaukee Brewers are 3-6 SU in their last 9 matches.
The total went OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 matches against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers 8/6/2023 Betting Picks
If Woodruff performs as he did in April, this pitching matchup screams easy victory for the Brewers. The first time Johan Oviedo faced the Brewers, he had no answer for them, and given that he couldn’t miss bats, it’s likely to happen again. Betting recommendations point toward the Brewers maintaining the upper hand. Can Pittsburgh’s bats match Milwaukee’s offensive output, assuming it does? Most likely not, so anticipate another division victory for the Brewers.
Free Pick and Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers will win 5-4.