Chris Adkins is back with his MLB home run Hit List for Tuesday, July 28, and he is riding some momentum after cashing a pair of long balls the day before. The Hit List targets hitters with favorable power matchups — the right platoon edge, a pitcher who has been vulnerable to the long ball, and a track record against the specific pitch type the opposing arm throws most.
As always, Chris recommends playing these as straight bets rather than parlaying them together, since you are getting plus money on each name and only need a few to connect for a profitable day. Here is the full seven-pick Hit List for July 28.
How the Hit List Is Built
Every name on the card clears the same bar: a hitter with real home-run pop against the handedness he is facing, matched against a pitcher who has surrendered homers to that side and leans on a fastball the hitter has already taken deep. Weather and ballpark conditions factor in too, with several of tonight’s games featuring wind blowing out.
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
In Game 1 of the Guardians-Reds doubleheader, Chris starts with Kyle Manzardo against Chase Burns. Burns has allowed 10 home runs to left-handed batters this season, and Manzardo brings 10 home runs off right-handed pitching. Burns throws a four-seam fastball 59 percent of the time, and Manzardo has already taken that pitch type deep three times. First pitch is set for a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out.
Pittsburgh’s Rodriguez, Pirates
Next up is the Pirates’ Rodriguez against Brandon Pfaadt in the Diamondbacks-Pirates matchup, with the wind blowing out at 14 miles per hour. Pfaadt has surrendered eight home runs this season, and the Pittsburgh bat carries five home runs off right-handed pitching, three of them off the four-seam fastball Pfaadt throws roughly 28 percent of the time.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper is one of the headliners, drawing Sandy Alcantara in Miami with the wind blowing out at 13 miles per hour on a hot night. Harper has strong history in this matchup, including multiple homers off Alcantara, and Alcantara has allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters. Harper owns 19 home runs off right-handed pitching and 11 off the four-seam fastball, a pitch Alcantara mixes in about 20 percent of the time.
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Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
Michael Harris II gets the nod against Christian Scott in the Braves-Mets game, with the wind blowing out at 17 miles per hour — though Chris notes there is a chance of rain to monitor. Harris has taken Scott deep before, and Scott has allowed six home runs to left-handed batters. Harris brings 13 home runs off right-handed pitching and four off the four-seam fastball, which Scott throws about 49 percent of the time.
Chicago White Sox Slugger, vs Gerrit Cole
Chris also likes a White Sox power bat against Gerrit Cole, who has allowed nine home runs to left-handed batters. The Chicago slugger carries 18 home runs off right-handed pitching and 10 off the four-seam fastball, a pitch Cole throws roughly 44 percent of the time. With the wind blowing out at 17 miles per hour, Chris would not blame anyone for sprinkling a little extra on this one.
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres
Jackson Merrill draws Michael Lorenzen in the Rockies-Padres nightcap. Lorenzen has allowed 12 home runs to left-handed batters, and Merrill brings 12 home runs off right-handed pitching, four of them off the four-seam fastball Lorenzen throws about 22 percent of the time. The wind is blowing gently across the field for this late one.
Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
Chris closes the card with Rafael Devers against Logan Henderson in the Brewers-Giants finale, with the wind blowing out at 11 miles per hour. Henderson has allowed three home runs to left-handed batters, and Devers is a premier power threat with 18 home runs off right-handed pitching and 13 off the four-seam fastball, a pitch Henderson throws about 41 percent of the time.
The Full Card & How to Play It
To recap, tonight’s Hit List is Kyle Manzardo, the Pirates’ Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, Michael Harris II, the White Sox slugger, Jackson Merrill and Rafael Devers — all backed to go deep on July 28. Chris will update the comments as they hit and add a few additional names from games he did not have data for at the time of the video.
His advice stays consistent: play these as straight bets rather than stacking them into a parlay, since the plus-money prices reward you even if only a few connect. Keep an eye on the Braves-Mets weather, and enjoy chasing the long ball.
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