MLB Picks Today: Tony’s Morning Show Betting Preview for July 27, 2026

Tony’s Morning Show attacks a 12-game Monday MLB betting card with Tony T, Chris Adkins and Ron Hahn leading a deep collection of sides, totals, run lines and underdog opportunities.

The strongest agreement developed around Atlanta, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston and Milwaukee. The panel also identified several struggling offenses worth fading, particularly in the Philadelphia-Miami and New York Yankees-Chicago White Sox totals markets.

All odds listed below were available in the July 27 morning sportsbook report and are subject to movement. Bettors should compare prices before placing any wager.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Market Odds

Seattle Mariners -132

Texas Rangers +120

Run line: Seattle -1.5 at +143; Texas +1.5 at -163

Total: 8, Over -101 and Under -119

Tony T’s Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline +120

Tony T is taking the plus price with Texas after another weak offensive stretch from Seattle. The Mariners entered the matchup struggling to generate consistent production and were coming off a series in which their offense repeatedly failed to create sustained pressure.

Texas provides home-field value at a playable underdog number. Seattle is being asked to win on the road despite its recent offensive decline, making the Rangers the more attractive side from a price-versus-form perspective.

Chris Adkins’ Position

Chris did not release a free side or total from this matchup during the main show, although he confirmed that one of his premium selections involved the early Seattle-Texas game.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Texas Rangers moneyline

Chris Adkins: No free pick released

Ron Hahn: No posted selection

Morning Show Chat: No confirmed selection

Consensus strength: Tony T standalone underdog play

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

Market Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks +105

Pittsburgh Pirates -116

Run line: Arizona +1.5 at -188; Pittsburgh -1.5 at +164

Total: 9, Over -105 and Under -115

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Over 9

Chris is targeting a high-scoring game with Merrill Kelly facing a Pittsburgh lineup that has been producing much better offensive results. The Pirates have been especially productive in night games, creating an appealing matchup against a starter Chris believes is vulnerable in this spot.

The total was available at nine in the morning report, although Chris referenced a nine-and-a-half during the live discussion. The preferred approach is to shop for Over 9 whenever available because the push protection is meaningful.

Tony T’s Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline -116

Tony is backing Pittsburgh’s offensive advantage against right-handed pitching. The Pirates were hitting close to .270 with approximately a .439 slugging percentage against righties, while Arizona had struggled to produce the same level of consistency in that split.

Pittsburgh was also 23-17 in the relevant right-handed pitching situation, while Arizona had produced a losing record against right-handed starters. With a manageable home price, Tony prefers the Pirates rather than laying an inflated run line.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Diamondbacks-Pirates Over

Ron Hahn agrees with Chris on the total. His posted selection strengthens the case for offense and creates one of the show’s clearest total consensuses.

Morning Show Chat Pick: Over

Power Critter also backed the Arizona-Pittsburgh game to finish over the total.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Pittsburgh moneyline

Chris Adkins: Over 9

Ron Hahn: Over

Power Critter: Over

Consensus strength: Strong Over consensus; secondary support for Pittsburgh

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Market Odds

Baltimore Orioles +100

Detroit Tigers -110

Run line: Baltimore +1.5 at -207; Detroit -1.5 at +178

Total: 8.5, Over -110 and Under -110

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Detroit Tigers Moneyline -110

Ron Hahn posted Detroit as one of his Monday moneyline selections and later included the Tigers in his three-team parlay.

The Tigers carry a modest home price instead of a heavily taxed favorite number. Detroit therefore needs only a small performance edge to justify the wager, while bettors avoid the volatility of laying 1.5 runs.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: No official selection

Chris Adkins: No official selection

Ron Hahn: Detroit moneyline

Morning Show Chat: No additional confirmed pick

Consensus strength: Ron Hahn standalone selection

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Market Odds

Philadelphia Phillies -175

Miami Marlins +158

Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 at -110; Miami +1.5 at -110

Total: 7.5, Over -115 and Under -105

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Under 7.5

Chris is fading two offenses that had combined to produce strong recent under trends. Both Philadelphia and Miami entered the matchup 8-3 to the under across their previous 11 games.

Philadelphia was also returning from a Sunday night matchup against the Yankees, creating a difficult turnaround before Monday’s game in Miami. The Marlins were riding an extended losing streak and had failed to generate reliable offensive production during the slide.

Tony T’s Pick: Under 7.5

Tony agrees with the under and points directly to Philadelphia’s road-hitting concerns. The Phillies have not carried the same offensive profile away from home, while Miami’s recent collapse has included a lack of consistent run production.

The matchup is being played indoors, removing wind and heat from the handicapping equation. That creates a more controlled run-scoring environment and strengthens the case for a low-total game.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Under 7.5

Chris Adkins: Under 7.5

Ron Hahn: No posted selection

Morning Show Chat: No confirmed selection

Consensus strength: Strong two-handicapper Under

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals

Market Odds

Toronto Blue Jays +113

Washington Nationals -125

Run line: Toronto +1.5 at -165; Washington -1.5 at +145

Total: 10, Over -105 and Under -115

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline -125

Chris is fading Max Scherzer in his return from a back issue. Scherzer had already been scratched from a previous start, making his workload and effectiveness difficult to trust immediately.

Washington’s offense has been dangerous enough to challenge a diminished version of Scherzer. Chris wants the Nationals at a reasonable home price rather than assuming the veteran starter will return at full strength.

Tony T’s Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline -125

Tony is also backing Washington. Toronto entered the matchup hitting poorly over its previous 24 games, including a low on-base percentage that limited traffic and scoring opportunities.

Washington had posted a .277 batting average and approximately a .510 slugging percentage over its recent sample. That is a difficult lineup for a pitcher returning from a back problem to face without a normal buildup.

Toronto had also lost 15 of 24 games in the situation Tony highlighted, producing a significant negative-unit return. Washington had performed much better against comparable opponents.

Morning Show Chat Picks

Richard Lockhart: Washington first five innings

Richard Lockhart: Washington full game

The first-five wager isolates the Scherzer matchup and reduces exposure to Washington’s bullpen. The full-game selection follows the same handicap as Tony and Chris.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Washington moneyline

Chris Adkins: Washington moneyline

Richard Lockhart: Washington first five

Richard Lockhart: Washington full game

Consensus strength: One of the strongest side consensuses on the card

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

Market Odds

Cleveland Guardians +152

Cincinnati Reds -168

Run line: Cleveland +1.5 at -136; Cincinnati -1.5 at +116

Total: 8.5, Over -120 and Under +100

Tony T’s Pick: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline +152

Tony identifies Cleveland as one of Monday’s most attractive price-driven underdogs. The Guardians had shown improved offensive form over their previous 26 games, posting approximately a .238 batting average and .384 slugging percentage.

Cincinnati’s home offense had been less convincing, with a batting average near .217 and a low on-base percentage. Chase Burns had also posted an ERA above four over his previous four starts.

Cleveland held the recent bullpen advantage, while Cincinnati had gone 22-28 at home and lost approximately 11 betting units. The Guardians had produced a profitable record as road underdogs in this general price range, making the +152 return worth the risk.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Chase Burns to Record the Win +122

Ron is approaching the matchup through the starting-pitcher market rather than laying Cincinnati’s full-game moneyline. Burns to record the victory at plus money requires Cincinnati to support him offensively and maintain a lead through the required innings.

This prop carries bullpen and official-scorer risk, but the +122 payoff is substantially better than laying approximately -168 on the Reds.

Morning Show Chat Picks

Richard Lockhart: Cincinnati first five innings

Richard Lockhart: Cincinnati to score Over 0.5 run in the first five innings

Scipio: Guardians-Reds Under 8.5

The chat is divided on the side. Richard favors Cincinnati early, Ron supports Burns individually and Tony takes Cleveland at the full-game underdog price.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Cleveland moneyline

Ron Hahn: Chase Burns to record the win

Richard Lockhart: Cincinnati first five

Richard Lockhart: Cincinnati first-five team total Over 0.5

Scipio: Under 8.5

Consensus strength: Split side opinions; isolated support for the Under

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Market Odds

Atlanta Braves -110

New York Mets +100

Run line: Atlanta -1.5 at +157; New York +1.5 at -180

Total: 8, Over -125 and Under +105

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -110

Chris is backing Atlanta at a short price as the Braves continue to produce winning baseball. He also noted that Ronald Acuña Jr. was expected to be activated, although lineup confirmation remained necessary later in the day.

The Mets had won only two of their previous five games and had not shown enough consistency to justify support against a Braves team carrying stronger recent momentum.

Tony T’s Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -110

Tony agrees with Atlanta and does not want to back the Mets in their current form. The Braves had posted stronger road-hitting numbers, while New York’s home offense carried a low on-base percentage near .311.

The bullpen comparison also favors Atlanta. The Mets’ relief corps had produced an ERA close to six over its recent 24-game sample, creating late-inning risk even if the starting pitching matchup remains competitive.

New York had also been a substantial negative-unit home team, while Atlanta remained above .500 on the road.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -110

Ron Hahn joined Tony and Chris on Atlanta, producing the strongest three-handicapper side consensus of the entire show.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Atlanta moneyline

Chris Adkins: Atlanta moneyline

Ron Hahn: Atlanta moneyline

Morning Show Chat: No opposing confirmed selection

Consensus strength: Maximum three-handicapper consensus

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

Market Odds

New York Yankees -138

Chicago White Sox +125

Run line: New York -1.5 at +123; Chicago +1.5 at -143

Total: 8.5, Over -110 and Under -110

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Under 8.5

Chris expects Max Fried to control the White Sox more effectively than the Yankees’ pitching staff did in the previous matchup. New York’s offense has also been unreliable on the road, reducing the likelihood that the Yankees carry the total by themselves.

Noah Schultz had shown enough home effectiveness to keep the Yankees from creating a runaway scoring game.

Tony T’s Pick: Under 8.5

Tony agrees with the under. The Yankees were hitting approximately .204 with a .262 on-base percentage over their previous 23 games, leaving very little traffic for the middle of the order.

Chicago had hit only around .233 against left-handed pitching with a .311 on-base percentage. Fried therefore draws a favorable matchup against a lineup that has not consistently reached base against southpaws.

Both bullpens had also been in good recent form. The Yankees finished under the total in 15 of the 23 games from Tony’s recent sample.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Chicago White Sox Moneyline +125

Ron is taking the home underdog against New York. His pick separates from the total consensus but is compatible with a lower-scoring game in which Chicago can remain within one run and win late.

Morning Show Chat Picks

Caldog: Chicago White Sox moneyline

Caldog’s South Sider Parlay: White Sox moneyline with Cardinals moneyline

The chat support for Chicago creates a secondary underdog consensus opposite the heavily priced Yankees.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Under 8.5

Chris Adkins: Under 8.5

Ron Hahn: White Sox moneyline

Caldog: White Sox moneyline

Consensus strength: Strong Under consensus and two-pick White Sox underdog consensus

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Market Odds

Chicago Cubs -116

St. Louis Cardinals -103

Run line: Chicago -1.5 at +129; St. Louis +1.5 at -161

Total: 9.5, Over -112 and Under -107

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Over 9.5

Chris is backing offense in extremely hot St. Louis conditions. The temperature was expected to reach approximately 99 degrees with the wind blowing out, creating a favorable hitting environment.

Chris also expressed little confidence in the projected pitching matchup. His position is that both offenses can contribute enough to clear a high total.

Ron Hahn’s Position

Ron did not post an official selection on this matchup during the show.

Morning Show Chat Picks

Scipio: Chicago Cubs moneyline

Caldog: St. Louis Cardinals moneyline

Caldog’s South Sider Parlay: White Sox moneyline with Cardinals moneyline

The chat is directly divided on the side, leaving Chris’ over as the clearest game-level wager.

Morning Show Consensus

Chris Adkins: Over 9.5

Scipio: Cubs moneyline

Caldog: Cardinals moneyline

Consensus strength: No side consensus; Chris standalone Over

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

Market Odds

Houston Astros -115

Los Angeles Angels +104

Run line: Houston -1.5 at +145; Los Angeles +1.5 at -165

Total: 8.5, Over -105 and Under -115

Tony T’s Pick: Los Angeles Angels Moneyline +104

Tony is backing the Angels as a small home underdog. Los Angeles had produced the stronger recent bullpen form and had played profitable baseball at home against division opponents.

The Angels were 10-6 in those home divisional matchups, returning approximately 4.7 units. Houston, meanwhile, had gone just 1-6 when priced as a road favorite of -110 or higher, losing around seven units.

Tony also believes the Angels have several useful starting pitchers worth retaining rather than trading. The current pitching structure gives Los Angeles a realistic chance to control the early innings before turning the game over to its bullpen.

Morning Show Chat Pick: Angels First Five

Scipio backed the Angels in the first five innings but expressed concern that Houston could rally against the Los Angeles bullpen later.

That creates two related approaches: Tony prefers the full-game plus price, while Scipio wants to isolate the starting-pitching portion of the matchup.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Angels moneyline

Scipio: Angels first five

Chris Adkins: No official selection

Ron Hahn: No posted selection

Consensus strength: Moderate Angels consensus

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics

Market Odds

Boston Red Sox -167

Oakland Athletics +151

Run line: Boston -1.5 at -108; Oakland +1.5 at -112

Total: 9.5, Over -108 and Under -112

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Over 9.5

Chris expects Boston to generate significant offense against Jack Perkins, who carried a home ERA above seven in the matchup analysis.

The Athletics remain capable of contributing offensively in their temporary home setting, while their bullpen presents substantial late-inning risk. Boston may not need much help from Oakland to threaten the total, but any Athletics production makes the over considerably stronger.

Tony T’s Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 at -108

Tony prefers the run line rather than paying approximately -167 on the moneyline. Boston had gone 17-7 against the run line over its previous 24 games, producing roughly 13 units of profit.

Oakland was 7-17 against the run line over the same type of recent sample and had lost approximately 16 units. The Athletics’ bullpen had been hit hard, while Boston owned one of baseball’s more reliable relief groups.

The statistical profile supports Boston winning by multiple runs instead of simply surviving at a high moneyline price.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5

Ron agrees with Tony on the run line and noted that Boston had repeatedly turned its wins into multi-run margins.

Morning Show Chat Position

Scipio stated that he was not willing to step in front of Boston’s current momentum, reinforcing the Red Sox side without specifying a separate price.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Boston -1.5

Chris Adkins: Over 9.5

Ron Hahn: Boston -1.5

Scipio: Supports Boston

Consensus strength: Strong Boston run-line consensus; secondary Over support

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

Market Odds

Milwaukee Brewers -135

San Francisco Giants +122

Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 at +118; San Francisco +1.5 at -138

Total: 8.5, Over -105 and Under -115

Chris Adkins’ Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -135

Chris believes Milwaukee is clearly the better team but recommends looking for the best possible way to control the price. The straight moneyline was approximately -135, while a modified minus-one option may offer a more balanced risk-reward profile.

The central handicap is Milwaukee’s superior overall form rather than a need to force a full -1.5 run-line wager.

Tony T’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -135

Tony is also backing Milwaukee. The Brewers had hit approximately .258 with a .427 slugging percentage over their previous 26 games, outperforming San Francisco’s recent offensive production.

Tyler Mahle had carried an ERA approaching five with a WHIP near 1.40 over his previous four starts. Milwaukee also held the better recent bullpen profile.

The Brewers were 19-6 on the road against National League opponents hitting .255 or worse, returning approximately 11 units. San Francisco had gone only 5-12 as a home underdog in the relevant price range.

Ron Hahn’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -135

Ron included Milwaukee in his three-team parlay, adding another vote to one of the strongest late-game positions.

Morning Show Chat Pick: Milwaukee -1

Scipio backed Milwaukee on a minus-one line, creating push protection if the Brewers win by exactly one run while improving the price compared with the full moneyline.

Morning Show Consensus

Tony T: Milwaukee moneyline

Chris Adkins: Milwaukee moneyline or -1

Ron Hahn: Milwaukee moneyline

Scipio: Milwaukee -1

Consensus strength: Maximum consensus on Milwaukee

Consensus Report

Strongest Consensus Picks

Atlanta Braves Moneyline -110

Tony T, Chris Adkins and Ron Hahn all backed Atlanta. The Braves have the stronger road offense, the superior recent bullpen and the potential return of Ronald Acuña Jr. The Mets’ poor home profitability and bullpen decline make Atlanta the show’s clearest unified side.

Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -135

Tony, Chris and Ron all selected Milwaukee, while Scipio supported the Brewers on a minus-one line. Milwaukee carries the stronger recent offense, bullpen advantage and profitable road profile.

Washington Nationals Moneyline -125

Tony and Chris both selected Washington, with Richard Lockhart backing the Nationals in the first five innings and full game. Max Scherzer’s return from a back issue creates immediate uncertainty against a productive Washington lineup.

Boston Red Sox -1.5 at -108

Tony and Ron agree on the Boston run line, while Scipio supports the Red Sox side. Boston’s strong recent run-line record and Oakland’s vulnerable bullpen make laying 1.5 runs preferable to paying the expensive moneyline.

Philadelphia Phillies-Miami Marlins Under 7.5

Tony and Chris agree on the under. Both clubs entered with strong recent under records, Philadelphia faced a difficult turnaround and Miami’s offense remained stuck in a prolonged decline.

Yankees-White Sox Under 8.5

Tony and Chris agree on the under. The Yankees’ recent batting average and on-base percentage have been poor, while Chicago has struggled against left-handed pitching and must face Max Fried.

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over 9

Chris, Ron Hahn and Power Critter all supported the over. Bettors should prioritize Over 9 rather than Over 9.5 whenever the lower number remains available.

Secondary Consensus Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline: Tony T

Los Angeles Angels moneyline or first five: Tony T and Scipio

Chicago White Sox moneyline: Ron Hahn and Caldog

Detroit Tigers moneyline: Ron Hahn

Cleveland Guardians moneyline: Tony T at a significant underdog price

Handicapper Pick Cards

Tony T’s Official Picks

Texas Rangers moneyline +120

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline -116

Philadelphia-Miami Under 7.5

Washington Nationals moneyline -125

Cleveland Guardians moneyline +152

Atlanta Braves moneyline -110

Yankees-White Sox Under 8.5

Los Angeles Angels moneyline +104

Boston Red Sox -1.5 at -108

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline -135

Tony T’s Three-Team Parlay

Texas Rangers moneyline

Atlanta Braves moneyline

Los Angeles Angels moneyline

Chris Adkins’ Official Picks

Philadelphia-Miami Under 7.5

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over 9

Washington Nationals moneyline -125

Atlanta Braves moneyline -110

Yankees-White Sox Under 8.5

Cubs-Cardinals Over 9.5

Red Sox-Athletics Over 9.5

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline or Milwaukee -1

Chris Adkins’ Three-Team Totals Parlay

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over

Cubs-Cardinals Over

Red Sox-Athletics Over

Chris Adkins’ Home Run Pick

Nelson Velázquez to hit a home run

Ron Hahn’s Posted Picks

Detroit Tigers moneyline -110

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over

Chase Burns to record the win +122

Atlanta Braves moneyline -110

Chicago White Sox moneyline +125

Boston Red Sox -1.5

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline -135

Ron Hahn’s Three-Team Parlay

Boston Red Sox -1.5

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline

Detroit Tigers moneyline

Morning Show Chat Picks

Richard Lockhart

Washington Nationals first five innings

Washington Nationals full game

Cincinnati Reds first five innings

Cincinnati first-five team total Over 0.5 run

Scipio

Guardians-Reds Under 8.5

Chicago Cubs moneyline

Los Angeles Angels first five innings

Milwaukee Brewers -1

Caldog

Chicago White Sox moneyline

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline

Sassy South Sider Parlay

Chicago White Sox moneyline

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline

Power Critter

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over

July 27 Morning Show Betting Card

Atlanta Braves moneyline -110

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline -135

Washington Nationals moneyline -125

Boston Red Sox -1.5 at -108

Phillies-Marlins Under 7.5

Yankees-White Sox Under 8.5

Diamondbacks-Pirates Over 9

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline -116

Los Angeles Angels moneyline +104

Texas Rangers moneyline +120

Cleveland Guardians moneyline +152

Detroit Tigers moneyline -110

Chicago White Sox moneyline +125

Cubs-Cardinals Over 9.5

Red Sox-Athletics Over 9.5

Tony’s Picks Leaderboard Recap

Justin McElvy held the top position in the latest leaderboard snapshot with a 10-4 record and +778 units.

Damian Sosh followed closely at 13-7-1 and +774 units, with Ron Hahn only four units behind at 15-6 and +770.

Tony’s Picks VIP stood fourth at 10-3-1 and +769 units, while Chris Adkins occupied fifth place with a 12-6-1 record and +751 units.

Millz Young ranked sixth at 17-9-1 and +732 units. D’Andre Stevenson followed at 7-1 and +654, Jorge Gonzalez was 8-2 and +646, Scott “Doubles” Shudy was 15-10 and +435, and Nick Lagouretos completed the top 10 at 18-12-1 and +429.

Chris entered Monday after another productive weekend and remained one of the hottest handicappers on the Tony’s Picks platform.

Yesterday’s Games Recap

Tony T Finishes 2-1

Tony closed Sunday with a 2-1 card. The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres delivered the winning selections, with San Diego completing a three-game sweep and continuing Miami’s dramatic slide.

The positive day extended Tony’s strong baseball season and provided momentum entering Monday’s 12-game schedule.

Chris Adkins Finishes 2-1

Chris also posted a 2-1 Sunday, with the Texas Rangers accounting for his only loss.

His complete weekend performance finished at approximately 5-1, strengthening his position near the top of the recent Tony’s Picks leaderboards.

Chris also released multiple home-run winners from his Hit List community during the weekend and entered Monday with six additional candidates plus Nelson Velázquez as his featured Morning Show home-run selection.

Final Betting Assessment

The clearest Monday strategy is to build around the games carrying multiple independent endorsements instead of forcing action across the complete schedule.

Atlanta and Milwaukee are the strongest side consensuses. Washington offers a combination of lineup form and uncertainty surrounding Max Scherzer’s return. Boston’s run line provides a better price structure than its expensive moneyline, while the Philadelphia-Miami and Yankees-White Sox unders are supported by poor recent offensive indicators.

The Diamondbacks-Pirates over carries the most widespread totals support, but the difference between nine and nine-and-a-half is significant. Bettors should secure Over 9 when available rather than accepting a worse number without a meaningful price improvement.

Monday’s best underdog opportunities are Texas, Cleveland, the Angels and the White Sox. Each carries more volatility than the main consensus favorites, but the available plus-money returns compensate bettors for accepting that additional risk.