The Chicago Cubs visit Pittsburgh to face the Pirates on Friday, July 24, and Ramon Scott is playing the under 4.5 in the first five innings. This is a hot pitching matchup on both sides, with Jared Jones dealing for Pittsburgh and Matt Boyd rolling for Chicago. With two starters in excellent form facing offenses that have cooled, Ramon expects a quiet, low-scoring start and wants the under through five.
Matchup Overview
This shapes up as a genuine pitching duel, which is the ideal environment for a first-five under. Both starters are pitching at a high level right now, and both offenses have shown recent vulnerabilities. When two arms are locked in, the early innings tend to stay quiet, and the 4.5 first-five total gives plenty of room.
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Pittsburgh is a slight favorite at home, but Ramon is not betting a side — he is betting that neither team scores much early. The Pirates have a strong offense, but left-handers give them trouble, and they draw exactly that in Matt Boyd. Meanwhile, the Cubs have gone cold against right-handed pitching, and they face a red-hot Jared Jones.
By focusing on the first five, Ramon isolates the two starters, both of whom have been dominant lately. It is a targeted way to bet on a low-scoring script without worrying about late-inning bullpen swings, and the matchup fundamentals strongly support it.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones has been on fire. Over his last three starts, he owns a 1.2 ERA, a minuscule 0.53 WHIP, a 43 percent strikeout rate, and a .100 batting average against. Those are video-game numbers, and against a Cubs lineup throwing right-handed bats at him, Jones profiles to dominate the early innings.
His season ERA of 4.05 is a bit inflated, but the underlying stuff has been electric, especially against right-handers. Chicago’s lineup is built to send righties to the plate, which plays right into Jones’s hands. A pitcher missing bats at this rate is a nightmare for early scoring.
Chicago counters with Matt Boyd, who has been excellent since returning from injury late last month. Across five strong starts, he has allowed just seven earned runs with two shutout outings, posting a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, a .185 batting average against, and a 20 percent strikeout rate, going six-plus innings in three straight.
Boyd’s left-handedness is a key edge, because the Pirates’ potent offense is noticeably more vulnerable against southpaws. A lefty in this kind of groove against a lineup that struggles with left-handed pitching is a strong recipe for early zeros, reinforcing the under lean.
Offensive Outlook
Pittsburgh has a top-tier offense, but left-handers neutralize much of its production, and Boyd is throwing the ball as well as anyone right now. The Pirates’ bats have punished some pitchers lately, but a sharp lefty in form is a different challenge, and early runs may be hard to come by.
Chicago’s offense has gone quiet against right-handed pitching, managing four hits or fewer in three straight games and just five earned runs off opposing starters over that span. Facing a locked-in Jones, the Cubs are unlikely to break out early, which is exactly what an under bettor wants.
With both offenses facing unfavorable matchups — the Pirates against a hot lefty, the Cubs against a dominant righty — neither projects to score much in the opening frames. That mutual suppression is the heart of Ramon’s first-five under.
Bullpen and Late-Game Notes
The beauty of the first-five under is that it depends entirely on the starters, both of whom are peaking. Ramon avoids the late-game bullpen variance and bets on the innings where Jones and Boyd are most likely to dominate. With both arms capable of long, quiet outings, the early total should stay low.
Even if the game opens up later once the bullpens enter, that is irrelevant to this play. The first-five window captures the two starters at their best, and the 4.5 total gives a comfortable cushion for a 1-1 or 2-1 type score through five innings.
Key Stats and Trends
The recent pitching numbers are the statistical backbone. Jones with a 1.2 ERA and Boyd with a 2.45 ERA over their recent starts is a combination that screams low-scoring early. When both starters are limiting hits and missing bats, the first five rarely produces many runs.
The offensive struggles reinforce it. Chicago’s four-hits-or-fewer stretch against righties and Pittsburgh’s difficulties against lefties both point to quiet bats in this specific matchup. The handedness edges line up perfectly for an under through five.
Ramon even acknowledged on the show that he liked the number so much he would have preferred an under four, settling on the 4.5 he was committed to. That conviction reflects how strongly the pitching matchup favors a low-scoring start.
Conditions and Context
Pittsburgh’s ballpark can play spacious in the outfield, which helps suppress extra-base hits and supports a low-scoring first five. Combined with two starters in top form, the environment nudges the projection toward fewer early runs.
Context favors the under as well: two pitchers peaking at the same time, two offenses with clear matchup disadvantages, and a modest first-five total. Ramon is betting on the game shape that all of these factors point toward — a quiet start on the scoreboard.
Recent Form and Matchup History
Both starters’ recent form is the story. Jones and Boyd have been among the better arms in the league over their last handful of outings, and when two pitchers are this locked in, the early innings almost always stay low. Ramon leans heavily on that current form.
The offensive matchups seal it. With the Cubs cold against righties and the Pirates vulnerable to lefties, both lineups face their toughest look in the opening frames. That is precisely the setup for a first-five under, and it is why Ramon is confident in the play.
Where the Value Is
The under 4.5 in the first five is the play, and its value comes from two starters in elite form facing offenses ill-suited to hit them. You get a fair number on a matchup that projects to stay quiet early, backed by strong recent pitching and favorable handedness splits.
Ramon was committed on the show, taking the under with the Cubs and Pirates and even eyeing a lower number. His confidence stems from the dominant recent form of both Jones and Boyd, plus the offensive struggles on each side against the type of pitching they face.
How to Play It
The recommended play is the first-five under 4.5, leaning on Jones and Boyd during their strongest innings. A full-game under is a reasonable companion given both starters’ ability to work deep, but the cleanest edge lives in the first five where both arms are freshest.
As always, wager responsibly and treat this as a strong lean rather than a lock — baseball can produce a surprise early inning. Still, the convergence of elite recent pitching and unfavorable offensive matchups makes this a well-supported under, and Ramon is confident enough to headline it.
Final Prediction
Ramon Scott is playing the under 4.5 in the first five innings between the Cubs and Pirates. Jared Jones and Matt Boyd are both dealing, and both offenses face tough matchups, pointing toward a quiet, low-scoring start.
Back the first-five under and let two hot starters do the work. In a matchup defined by dominant pitching and cold bats, the low-scoring script is the smart side in Pittsburgh.
There is one more reason to trust the under here: neither manager has an obvious incentive to force offense early against pitching this sharp. Both lineups have shown a willingness to grind at-bats and wait for the bullpens rather than chase a hot starter, and that patient approach tends to depress first-five scoring even further. When you combine elite arms, favorable handedness matchups, and disciplined offenses content to bide their time, the opening frames become a natural fit for the under, and that is exactly the profile Ramon is buying into with the 4.5 through five.
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