The Two-Three Zone show is back on the Tony’s Picks YouTube channel with a four-game WNBA card for Friday, July 17. It is a compact slate, but it is loaded with teams that are either fighting for playoff position or quietly cashing tickets for spread bettors who have been paying attention. Every game on this card has a number that tells a story, and in at least two spots the market has already started moving away from the obvious side.
Below is the full breakdown of all four games, with the current lines pulled fresh, the season-long against-the-spread and over-under profiles for each team, and the reasoning behind each selection on the card.
Friday’s Four-Game WNBA Slate at a Glance
Three games tip at 7:30 p.m. ET, with Connecticut at Phoenix closing the night at 10:00 p.m. ET. The card mixes a high total in Toronto, a near pick-em in Chicago, a big home favorite in Indianapolis, and a road underdog in the desert that has been one of the most reliable spread teams in the league over the last month.
The theme running through this slate is simple: the teams with the best records are not the teams covering numbers. Atlanta, Indiana and Phoenix all carry losing against-the-spread marks, while Seattle and Connecticut — a combined 12-38 straight up — are both above .500 versus the number. That gap between record and market price is where the value lives on a night like this.
Atlanta Dream at Toronto Tempo: The Total Is the Play
Atlanta comes north as a 6.5-point road favorite, with the total opening at 180.5 and already climbing to 181.5. The Dream are 14-10 straight up but just 10-14 against the spread, and the road split is uglier: 4-8 ATS away from Atlanta and 1-4 ATS over their last five.
The Dream have won only two of their last eight games, and both wins followed the same script — Angel Reese producing a double-double and Atlanta’s defense turning takeaways into transition offense. They generated 28 points off turnovers against Seattle and another 21 in a 101-92 win over Los Angeles. Reese returned from an ankle injury in that game and finished with 23 points and 13 rebounds, with Allisha Gray adding 20.
Toronto sits at 10-14 and has dropped six of its last eight. The Tempo were held to a season-low 62 points against Washington, but that was an outlier rather than a trend. Over the last five games Toronto is averaging just 80.2 points while surrendering 90.0, and the season-long numbers show a team that scores 88.6 and allows 91.5 — a defense that simply does not get stops.
Marina Mabry is the engine, averaging 21 points per game and nearly 30 across the seven games before Washington blanked her. Toronto still pushes pace at home, and the Tempo are 15-9 to the over this season. Atlanta is 13-11 to the over, and the total has gone over in nine of Atlanta’s last 13 and nine of Toronto’s last 13.
The injury report matters here. Tina Charles is questionable for Atlanta and Brianna Jones is questionable as well; Toronto lists Kia Nurse as questionable with Bec Bentley probable. Missing frontcourt bodies on either side only accelerates a game that already wants to be played at a track meet pace.
The side is the harder question. Atlanta is 4-8 ATS on the road and Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last six, including 1-4 at home. Neither team covers with any consistency, which is exactly why the card avoids the spread entirely and attacks the number that both teams have been feeding all season. When these two met on June 14, Atlanta won 102-77 and the game sailed over a 172 total.
The pick: Atlanta/Toronto OVER 183.5. At the current 181.5 the number is even friendlier than the one quoted on the show.
Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky: Taking the Home Chalk
Chicago is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total at 184.5 after opening 183.5. The Sky are 8-16 straight up but a respectable 12-12 against the spread, and they are coming off a 95-90 win over Seattle led by undrafted rookie Sydney Taylor, who dropped 17.
Los Angeles is 10-13 after a 96-87 loss to Minnesota. Nneka Ogwumike scored 23 in that game and tied Lisa Leslie’s Sparks franchise record of 6,263 career points. She has reached double figures in nine straight games, including five 20-point outings, and is averaging 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. She now has a chance to break the record in Chicago.
The Sparks average 89.1 points but concede 93.7, and they have lost two straight and seven of their last 10. Chicago averages 86.8 and allows 89.7. Neither defense inspires confidence, and Chicago’s rebounding margin is a genuine problem — the Sky give up 38 boards per game, the worst mark on this slate.
Injuries cut both ways. Cameron Brink is questionable for Los Angeles and Kelsey Plum remains out, though the Sparks have managed without her. For Chicago, Kamilla Cardoso is questionable with a knee issue and has not played since July 12, while Courtney Vandersloot is out. Cardoso’s status is pivotal because Chicago needs that size against Ogwumike.
The spread trends still favor the home side. Chicago is 9-4 ATS over its last 13, and Los Angeles is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Sky. Chicago is also trying to avenge a 102-87 loss to Los Angeles on July 10. Taylor has been one of the league’s surprises, scoring in double figures in 11 of her last 12.
The total is tempting — Los Angeles is 16-6 to the over and 8-2 in road games, while Chicago is 16-8 to the over and has gone over in seven of its last eight. But at 184.5 the market has already priced that in, and the card takes the side instead.
The pick: Chicago Sky -1.5.
Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever: Back the Under
Indiana is an 8.5-point home favorite and the total has settled at 174.5 after opening 173.5. Seattle is 6-20 and has lost three straight and 16 of its last 19, but the Storm are 14-12 against the spread — the best ATS mark of any team on this card.
Seattle is coming off that 95-90 loss to Chicago in which the defense leaked and the ball security disappeared. Dominique Malonga, the 20-year-old All-Star, has grabbed nine rebounds in four consecutive games. Ezi Magbegor remains out with a facial injury, which strips the Storm of a key interior presence.
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Indiana is 14-10 after an 88-75 home loss to Golden State in which the Fever matched their season low in scoring and looked flat coming off a four-game western road trip. Coach Stephanie White pushed back on fatigue as an excuse, but the schedule is real — this is another game inside 48 hours.
Indiana still leads the WNBA at 93.2 points per game and scores 97.5 at home. Kelsey Mitchell averages 22 and Caitlin Clark is probable. The swing factor is Aaliyah Boston, who is questionable while averaging 17 points and eight rebounds. Without Boston, Indiana’s halfcourt offense gets appreciably slower.
The under case is built on Seattle’s pace and Indiana’s fatigue. The Storm score just 80.4 per game and allow 85.5, and over the last five they are holding opponents to 81.8 on 40.7 percent shooting. Seattle has gone under in four of its last six. More telling: the under has cashed in 12 of the last 18 meetings between these two.
Indiana won the May 17 meeting 89-78 — a total of 167 that stayed comfortably under this number. The Fever just posted 75 points in their last outing. At 174.5, this asks two tired teams to combine for a figure neither has been reaching.
The pick: Seattle/Indiana UNDER 176. The live number of 174.5 is a slightly worse price but the angle holds.
Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury: Play of the Day
This is the headliner. Phoenix opened -4.5 and has been bet up to -5.5, with the total at 163.5. Connecticut is 6-18 straight up, but the Sun are 13-11 against the spread and a scorching 4-1 ATS over their last five, good for plus-three units.
Connecticut arrives off a 90-87 win over Portland in which the Sun shot 52 percent and recorded 28 assists. Aaliyah Edwards was the story: 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting with eight rebounds in just 24 minutes. That is efficiency the Sun rarely get.
Make no mistake about the profile — Connecticut scores only 79.7 per game, shoots 27 percent from three and 69 percent from the line. This is not a good offense. But the Sun compete defensively, they are 8-6 ATS against Western Conference opponents, and they are 5-5 ATS on the road while going just 2-8 straight up. That is the definition of a team the market underprices.
Phoenix is 8-17 and has lost four of its last five. The Mercury are coming off a 104-100 loss to Minnesota in which they shot 55 percent from the field but allowed the Lynx to shoot 55 percent right back. Kahleah Copper scored 26 and it did not matter, because Phoenix could not generate a single meaningful stop.
The home split is the kill shot. Phoenix is 3-8 against the spread at home this season and minus-9.4 units in those games. Over the last five the Mercury are 1-4 straight up, scoring 80.6 while allowing 89.2 on 48.2 percent opponent shooting. Alyssa Thomas may have been snubbed from the All-Star team, but individual honors do not cover spreads.
Connecticut is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 6-1 ATS in its last seven against Phoenix specifically. Getting a full extra half-point at +5.5 compared to the number quoted on the show only strengthens the position.
The pick: Connecticut Sun +5 (Play of the Day).
How the Card Fits Together
There is a coherent thread here. Two of the four plays — Connecticut and the Seattle/Indiana under — are bets against public perception of good teams. Indiana and Phoenix are both being asked to pay a tax on reputation and record while playing tired, shorthanded, or both. Chicago at -1.5 is the one spot where the card sides with the favorite, and it does so because the head-to-head ATS history is lopsided.
The Toronto total is the cleanest read on the board. Two teams that cannot get stops, a defense allowing 91.5 per game, and a head-to-head meeting last month that cleared 172 by a wide margin all point the same direction.
Final Predictions
The Two-Three Zone card for Friday, July 17: Atlanta/Toronto OVER 183.5; Chicago Sky -1.5 over Los Angeles; Seattle/Indiana UNDER 176; and Connecticut Sun +5 against the Phoenix Mercury as the Play of the Day.
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