Chris Adkins is back with another edition of his MLB home run Hit List, and this Wednesday, July 8 slate hands him seven bats he expects to leave the yard. Chris builds every card around batter-versus-pitcher history, handedness splits, pitch-type damage and ballpark conditions, so each name below comes with a reason attached rather than a hunch.
As always, these are free swings. Chris recommends playing them as straight home run bets rather than stacking them into one parlay, because the plus-money on individual props adds up quickly and you stay alive even if only a couple connect. Let’s run through the full board.
Rafael Devers vs. Dylan Cease (Giants at Blue Jays, 3:45 ET)
The card opens in Toronto, where Rafael Devers and the Giants face right-hander Dylan Cease at 3:45 p.m. Eastern. First pitch checks in at 61 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 miles an hour, a friendly setup for a left-handed pull hitter. Devers has already taken Cease deep once this year and owns 15 home runs against right-handed pitching. Cease has surrendered four long balls to lefties and leans on a four-seam fastball 38% of the time — a pitch Devers has punished for 10 of his home runs.
Pete Alonso vs. Colin Rea (Cubs at Orioles, 6:35 ET)
Next up, Pete Alonso draws a matchup with Cubs right-hander Colin Rea at 6:35 p.m. Eastern in 81-degree weather with the wind pushing out at four miles an hour. Alonso brings the biggest raw power on the list with 16 home runs against right-handers. Rea has been vulnerable, allowing eight home runs to right-handed batters, and he throws his four-seam fastball 36% of the time. Alonso has nine of his home runs off four-seamers, making him one of Chris’ more confident swings on the entire slate.
Cedric Mullins vs. Gerrit Cole (Rays at Yankees, 6:40 ET)
Cedric Mullins gets the nod against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole at 6:40 p.m. Eastern. The game is played in a dome, so weather is off the board entirely — a neutral, controlled environment. Mullins has already homered off Cole before and carries 10 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Cole has allowed seven home runs to left-handed hitters and lives on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 45% of the time. Mullins has five home runs off the pitch, giving him a live path to another one tonight.
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Matt Olson vs. Jared Jones (Braves at Pirates, 6:40 ET)
In Pittsburgh, Matt Olson and the Braves take on right-hander Jared Jones at 6:40 p.m. Eastern. The temperature sits at 83 degrees with the wind blowing out three miles an hour. Olson has been one of the most reliable power sources in the National League with 15 home runs against righties. Jones has given up four home runs to left-handed batters and throws his four-seam fastball 39% of the time. Olson has taken four-seamers deep seven times, and his steady contact quality makes him a strong Hit List anchor.
Dylan Dingler vs. Jeffrey Springs (Athletics at Tigers, 6:40 ET)
Detroit’s Dylan Dingler is Chris’ upside play, facing Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs at 6:40 p.m. Eastern. It is 81 degrees with the wind blowing right to left at 10 miles an hour. The headline number here is Springs’ vulnerability: he has allowed 18 home runs to right-handed batters this season. Dingler has four home runs off left-handed pitching and five off four-seam fastballs, which Springs throws 44% of the time. As a lower-profile bat, Dingler should carry a longer price and add real value to the ticket.
Jake Bauers vs. Michael McGreevy (Brewers at Cardinals, 7:45 ET)
Jake Bauers gets a spot against Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy at 7:45 p.m. Eastern in St. Louis. The forecast reads 87 degrees with the wind blowing out three miles an hour. Bauers has already homered off McGreevy and holds 13 home runs against right-handed pitching. McGreevy has allowed nine home runs to lefties and mixes in his four-seam fastball 30% of the time. Bauers has four of his home runs off four-seamers, and the warm, slightly favorable air only helps his cause in a hitter-friendly building.
Joc Pederson vs. Walbert Urena (Angels at Rangers, 8:05 ET)
Chris closes his card in Texas, where Joc Pederson and the Rangers face right-hander Walbert Urena at 8:05 p.m. Eastern. It is a hot 95 degrees with the wind blowing out at nine miles an hour — arguably the best home run environment on the board. Pederson has long been a threat against right-handed pitching with 13 home runs this year and six off four-seam fastballs. Urena throws his four-seamer just 21% of the time and has allowed only two home runs to lefties, so this leans more on the ballpark and conditions than on the raw matchup.
How to Play Chris’ Hit List Today
To recap, Chris Adkins is backing Rafael Devers, Pete Alonso, Cedric Mullins, Matt Olson, Dylan Dingler, Jake Bauers and Joc Pederson to go deep on July 8. His advice stays the same as always: take these as straight home run bets rather than lumping them into a single parlay. Home run props already pay plus money, so cashing even one or two straight tickets keeps you profitable, while a seven-leg parlay needs everything to break right.
Chris also noted he will drop a few additional bats in the comments of his video once the rest of the day’s data is in, so keep notifications on if you want the full board. For more free daily picks and premium best bets, tonyspicks.com is the home base.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Home run props are among the most volatile bets in baseball, so treat this Hit List as entertainment and never wager more than you can comfortably afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun or starts to feel like a problem, confidential help is available 24/7 through the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
