Free MLB Picks For Today 7/8/2026
MLB Games and Odds for July 8, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants
Dylan Cease, RHP
Starts: 16. Appearances: 16. ERA: 2.79. WHIP: 1.18. K%: 36.7%. BB%: 11.0%. GB%: 44.0%. HR/9: 0.5.
Logan Webb, RHP
Starts: 15. Appearances: 15. ERA: 3.66. WHIP: 1.17. K%: 20.4%. BB%: 6.3%. GB%: 50.9%. HR/9: 0.7.
Toronto brings the more explosive strikeout profile with Cease, while San Francisco counters with Webb’s ground-ball foundation and contact-management profile.
Toronto is hitting .222 in their past 25 games with a .280 OBP. Giants are hitting .244 at home with a .304 OBP. Both starters in great recent form. Blue Jays bullpen in their past 25 games has an ERA of 3.23. Toronto is 12-3 to the under on the road facing a starter that allows 0.5 home runs per start or fewer. SF is 8-6 to the under at home facing a starter that allows 0.5 home runs per start or fewer. Play Toronto and San Francisco under 7.
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles
Colin Rea, RHP
Starts: 14. Appearances: 18. ERA: 4.74. WHIP: 1.43. K%: 17.2%. BB%: 8.6%. GB%: 44.3%. HR/9: 1.3.
Dean Kremer, RHP
Starts: 3. Appearances: 3. ERA: 3.18. WHIP: 0.88. K%: 30.8%. BB%: 4.6%. GB%: 39.0%. HR/9: 2.6. FIP: 5.11.
Baltimore is priced as the home favorite, but Kremer’s ERA-to-FIP gap and elevated home-run rate add volatility to the matchup.
Chicago is hitting .256 in their past 24 games with a .464 slugging percentage. Orioles hitting .229 in their past 25 games with a .379 slugging percentage. Cubs are 17-8 in their past 25 games with a +5.7-unit return. Baltimore is 11-15 in their past 26 games with a -4.9-unit loss. Play Cubs +113.
Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Jeffrey Springs, LHP
Starts: 18. Appearances: 18. ERA: 5.79. WHIP: 1.38. K%: 19.7%. BB%: 8.1%. GB%: 33.8%. HR/9: 2.3.
Troy Melton, RHP
Starts: 7. Appearances: 7. ERA: 2.05. WHIP: 0.80. K%: 19.2%. BB%: 6.0%. GB%: 42.3%. HR/9: 1.4. FIP: 4.54.
Detroit gets the cleaner surface numbers with Melton, while Springs enters with home-run damage and a lower ground-ball rate that can stretch innings.
Athletics are hitting .262 in their past 25 games with a .455 slugging percentage. Tigers are hitting .230 against left-handed starters with a .305 OBP. Springs numbers are better on the road. Athletics bullpen has performed well on the road. Tigers are 10-17 against left-handed starters with a -9.1-unit loss. Athletics are 17-10 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 with a +10.7-unit return. Play Athletics +138.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Grant Holmes, RHP
Starts: 16. Appearances: 17. ERA: 3.83. WHIP: 1.35. K%: 19.9%. BB%: 10.7%. GB%: 41.7%. HR/9: 1.6. FIP: 5.21.
Jared Jones, RHP
Starts: 7. Appearances: 7. ERA: 5.28. WHIP: 1.38. K%: 24.6%. BB%: 8.7%. GB%: 43.4%. HR/9: 1.6.
Both starters carry run-prevention risk, with Holmes showing a meaningful FIP warning and Jones still working through command and contact issues.
Atlanta is batting .226 in their past 23 games with a .365 slugging percentage. Pirates are hitting .284 in their past 25 games with a .480 slugging percentage. Pirates’ bullpen in the better recent form. Braves are 7-17 in their past 24 games with a -14.3-unit loss. Pirates are 22-15 at home against right handed starters with a +3-unit return. Play Pittsburgh -115.
Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
George Kirby, RHP
Starts: 17. Appearances: 17. ERA: 3.81. WHIP: 1.32. K%: 21.1%. BB%: 5.6%. GB%: 49.0%. HR/9: 0.9.
Tyler Phillips, RHP
Starts: 7. Appearances: 23. ERA: 3.52. WHIP: 1.38. K%: 17.5%. BB%: 10.8%. GB%: 46.2%. HR/9: 1.0. FIP: 4.54.
Kirby brings the lower-walk profile, while Phillips has worked in multiple roles and carries a higher walk rate despite a solid ERA.
Seattle is batting .221 in their past 24 games with a .293 OBP. Marlins are hitting .283 in their past 25 games with a .492 slugging percentage. Phillips at home has an ERA of 1.16 in his 12 appearances. Seattle bullpen in their past 24 games has an ERA of 5.08 with WHIP of 1.38. Seattle is 20-25 on the road with a -10.8-unit loss. Marlins are 29-17 at home with a +8.7-unit return. Play Miami +112.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Gerrit Cole, RHP
Starts: 8. Appearances: 8. ERA: 4.01. WHIP: 1.20. K%: 22.8%. BB%: 5.6%. GB%: 34.1%. HR/9: 1.7.
Shane McClanahan, LHP
Starts: 16. Appearances: 16. ERA: 3.05. WHIP: 1.17. K%: 23.2%. BB%: 8.4%. GB%: 44.2%. HR/9: 0.7.
Tampa Bay gets the left-handed matchup edge with McClanahan, while Cole’s low walk rate keeps him competitive despite the elevated home-run number.
NY is batting .213 in their past 26 games with a .283 OBP. Rays are hitting .263 in this span with a .421 slugging percentage. Cole in his past five starts has an ERA of 5.47 with .505 slugging percentage against. McClanahan at home carries an ERA of 2.11 in seven starts with WHIP of 1.00. NY is 7-11 on the road against the division with a -7.3-unit loss. Rays are 13-1 at home against the division with a +12.6 unit return. Play Rays -122.
Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
Starts: 14. Appearances: 14. ERA: 3.81. WHIP: 1.23. K%: 23.9%. BB%: 11.5%. GB%: 38.8%. HR/9: 1.2.
Foster Griffin, LHP
Starts: 18. Appearances: 18. ERA: 2.87. WHIP: 1.04. K%: 23.8%. BB%: 6.2%. GB%: 44.5%. HR/9: 1.5. FIP: 4.27.
Washington gets the stronger run-prevention profile with Griffin, though the FIP gap signals that the surface ERA may be running ahead of the underlying indicators. Arrighetti brings a comparable strikeout rate but has a higher walk profile that can create traffic.
Houston is batting .252 against left-handed starters with a .420 slugging percentage. Nationals are hitting .249 at home with a .439 slugging percentage. Arrighetti in his past five starts has an ERA of 7.33 with .480 slugging percentage against. Astros bullpen has struggled on the road and the Nationals pen struggled at home. Nationals are 31-14-2 to the over at home. Astros are 7-5 to the over on the road against left-handed starters. Play Houston and Washington over 9.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Chuck King, RHP
King makes his MLB debut that struggled in two levels of the minor leagues this season in 66 1/3rd innings.
Chase Burns, RHP
Starts: 17. Appearances: 17. ERA: 2.40. WHIP: 1.08. K%: 29.7%. BB%: 7.9%. GB%: 36.7%. HR/9: 1.1.
Cincinnati has the clearer pitching profile with Burns, who brings premium swing-and-miss ability and a strong ERA.
Philadelphia is batting .261 with a .440 slugging percentage in their past 26 games. Reds are hitting .221 in their past 25 games with a .301 OBP. Red’s bullpen has struggled at home. Cincinnati lost 16 of 26 with a -4.6 unit loss. Phillies are 26-20 on the road with a +3.1-unit return. Play Phillies.
Kansas City Royals at New York Mets
Stephen Kolek, RHP
Starts: 10. Appearances: 10. ERA: 4.50. WHIP: 1.24. K%: 15.2%. BB%: 5.4%. GB%: 45.7%. HR/9: 1.3.
Christian Scott, RHP
Starts: 11. Appearances: 11. ERA: 3.49. WHIP: 1.35. K%: 28.0%. BB%: 11.7%. GB%: 28.3%. HR/9: 1.3.
The Mets get the strikeout edge with Scott, but his walk rate and low ground-ball percentage create volatility. Kolek is more contact-oriented and needs efficiency early to avoid extended innings.
Kansas City is batting .265 in their past 25 games with a .440 slugging percentage. NY is hitting .234 at home with a .308 OBP. Both starters in poor recent form. Mets bullpen in poor recent and 26 game form. Mets are 19-25 at home with a -17.6-unit loss. Royals are 3-2 on the road facing teams that get outscored by 0.5 runs per game or higher with a +1.9-unit return. Play KC.
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
Jake Bennett, LHP
Starts: 7. Appearances: 7. ERA: 3.10. WHIP: 0.98. K%: 19.7%. BB%: 4.5%. GB%: 52.2%. HR/9: 0.7.
Davis Martin, RHP
Starts: 17. Appearances: 17. ERA: 3.08. WHIP: 1.26. K%: 22.7%. BB%: 7.3%. GB%: 43.5%. HR/9: 0.6.
This matchup features two starters with similar ERA profiles. Bennett has been cleaner in WHIP and ground-ball rate, while Martin brings the stronger strikeout percentage and comparable home-run prevention.
Boston is hitting .261 in their past four games with a .430 slugging percentage. White Sox are hitting .221 in their past five games with a .282 OBP. Martin at home has an ERA of 0.88 with WHIP of 0.95. Bennett in his past five starts has an ERA of 2.67 with WHIP of 0.82. Red Sox bullpen performs well on the road and White Sox pen at home. Boston is 6-2 to the under on the road facing a starter that allows 0.5 home runs per game or fewer. Chicago is 8-5 to the under at home against left-handed starters. Play Boston and Chicago under 8.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Slade Cecconi, RHP
Starts: 18. Appearances: 18. ERA: 4.44. WHIP: 1.40. K%: 17.7%. BB%: 7.3%. GB%: 46.4%. HR/9: 1.2.
Connor Prielipp, LHP
Starts: 12. Appearances: 12. ERA: 4.96. WHIP: 1.38. K%: 23.8%. BB%: 8.4%. GB%: 41.7%. HR/9: 0.9. FIP: 3.62.
Minnesota has the better underlying profile with Prielipp, whose FIP sits well below his ERA. Cleveland counters with Cecconi’s steadier ground-ball rate but a lower strikeout ceiling.
Cleveland is batting .251 against left-handed batters with a .336 OBP. Twins are hitting .249 at home with an OBP of .323. Cecconi in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.25. Twins’ bullpen in their past 24 games has an ERA of 6.48 with WHIP of 1.62. Cleveland is 20-12 against left-handed starters with a +6.7-unit return. Minnesota is 6-10 at home against winning teams with a -5-unit loss. Play Cleveland +117.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle Harrison, LHP
Starts: 16. Appearances: 16. ERA: 2.82. WHIP: 1.08. K%: 30.6%. BB%: 6.2%. GB%: 36.9%. HR/9: 1.0.
Michael McGreevy, RHP
Starts: 17. Appearances: 17. ERA: 3.12. WHIP: 1.11. K%: 15.9%. BB%: 5.8%. GB%: 44.9%. HR/9: 1.2. FIP: 4.31.
Milwaukee owns the strikeout advantage with Harrison, who pairs a strong ERA with a high K rate. McGreevy has limited walks, but the lower strikeout rate and FIP gap create some concern beneath the surface.
Brewers hitting .256 against right-handed starters with a .397 slugging percentage. Cardinals hitting .256 against left-handed starters with a .409 slugging percentage. Harrison in his past five starts has an ERA of 6.05 with .467 slugging percentage against. St Louis bullpen in the past 27 games has an ERA of 4.84 with WHIP of 1.40. Play Cardinals and Brewers over 8.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Walbert Urena, RHP
Starts: 14. Appearances: 16. ERA: 3.03. WHIP: 1.31. K%: 22.3%. BB%: 12.2%. GB%: 54.7%. HR/9: 0.6.
MacKenzie Gore, LHP
Starts: 18. Appearances: 18. ERA: 4.31. WHIP: 1.27. K%: 25.5%. BB%: 9.6%. GB%: 37.3%. HR/9: 0.8.
Urena has kept the ball on the ground at an excellent rate, though the walk percentage remains a pressure point. Gore brings more strikeout punch and a better FIP profile than his ERA suggests.
Angels are hitting .185 in their past five games with a .253 slugging percentage. Rangers is hitting .250 in their past four games with a .426 slugging percentage. Gore’s numbers are better at home. LA bullpen on the road has an ERA of 5.02 with WHIP of 1.49. Rangers’ bullpen has performed well at home. LA is 15-31 on the road with a -11-unit loss. Texas is 12-6 at home facing AL teams that average 4.4 runs per game or fewer with a +5.4-unit return. Play Rangers -155.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Feltner, RHP
Starts: 12. Appearances: 12. ERA: 4.27. WHIP: 1.22. K%: 18.0%. BB%: 8.2%. GB%: 44.4%. HR/9: 1.4.
Roki Sasaki, RHP
Starts: 15. Appearances: 15. ERA: 5.40. WHIP: 1.40. K%: 22.8%. BB%: 9.7%. GB%: 43.3%. HR/9: 2.0.
Los Angeles is priced as the heavy home favorite, but Sasaki’s home-run rate and ERA leave risk in the pitching matchup. Feltner has the cleaner WHIP, though his strikeout rate is modest.
Colorado is hitting .290 in their past 26 games with a .518 slugging percentage. LA is in great hitting form in this period. Sasaki in his past four starts allowed 19 runs in 17 innings with a .700 slugging percentage against. Rockies bullpen in the better recent form. Rockies are 18-9 to the run line in their past 27 games with a +7.6-unit return. LA is 10-17 to the run line in their past 27 games with a -7.8-unit loss. Play Colorado on run line +1.5 runs at -102.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Jose Cabrera, RHP
Starts: 3. Appearances: 3. ERA: 4.73. WHIP: 1.58. K%: 16.7%. BB%: 8.3%. GB%: 32.5%. HR/9: 2.0. FIP: 5.88.
Michael King, RHP
Starts: 18. Appearances: 18. ERA: 3.52. WHIP: 1.16. K%: 21.0%. BB%: 9.8%. GB%: 46.2%. HR/9: 0.9.
San Diego holds the pitching edge with King’s larger sample, lower WHIP, better ground-ball rate and stronger home-run prevention. Cabrera’s early profile carries more volatility with a high WHIP and elevated HR/9.
Arizona is hitting .259 on the road against the division with a .416 slugging percentage. San Diego is batting .224 at home against the division with a .385 slugging percentage. King in his past five starts has an ERA of 3.81. Diamondbacks bullpen in the better recent and past 26 game form. They are 15-10 on the road facing an NL team that hits .255 or lower with a +5.2-unit return. Play Arizona +129.
Free MLB Picks For Today 7/8/2026
MLB Sharp Betting Card
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants
Play: Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Under 7
Total: Under 7
Grade: B (Pitching Under Profile)
Key Edges:
- Both starters enter in strong recent form
- Logan Webb brings a ground-ball foundation
- Dylan Cease adds strikeout upside
- Toronto offense has struggled with a low recent OBP
- Blue Jays road under trend supports the total
Read:
This is a starting pitching edge and run-prevention matchup. With Toronto cold at the plate and both arms capable of limiting damage, the under has the cleaner betting profile.
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles
Play: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Moneyline: Cubs +113
Grade: B+ (Plus-Money Form Edge)
Key Edges:
- Cubs enter with stronger recent offensive form
- Chicago owns the better recent win/loss profile
- Baltimore lineup has been cold over the recent sample
- Dean Kremer’s ERA-to-FIP gap adds volatility
- Plus-money dog value on the hotter team
Read:
Chicago brings the better offensive form and recent market return. At plus money, the Cubs profile as a live road dog against a Baltimore side with pitching regression risk.
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers
Play: Athletics Moneyline
Moneyline: Athletics +138
Grade: B+ (Live Road Dog)
Key Edges:
- Athletics lineup has strong recent slugging form
- Detroit has struggled against left-handed starters
- Jeffrey Springs has better road splits
- Athletics bullpen has held up well away from home
- Plus-money dog value in a favorable split spot
Read:
The price creates value on the Athletics as a road underdog. Detroit’s issues against left-handed starters make this a better matchup than the surface pitching numbers suggest.
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Moneyline: Pirates -115
Grade: B (Home Form Edge)
Key Edges:
- Pittsburgh owns the stronger recent offensive form
- Braves lineup has struggled over the recent sample
- Pirates bullpen is in better recent form
- Atlanta has been a poor recent moneyline team
- Home edge against a right-handed starter
Read:
Pittsburgh has the cleaner current form profile on both offense and bullpen. With Atlanta sliding and the Pirates producing at home, the short favorite price is playable.
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins Moneyline
Moneyline: Marlins +112
Grade: B+ (Home Dog Value)
Key Edges:
- Miami lineup is in strong recent offensive form
- Seattle offense has struggled with a low recent OBP
- Tyler Phillips has excellent home run-prevention numbers
- Seattle bullpen has been poor recently
- Marlins have produced a strong home moneyline return
Read:
Miami checks the key value boxes as a plus-money home dog. The Marlins bring better offensive form, a stronger home profile, and a bullpen gap against Seattle.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Moneyline: Rays -122
Grade: A- (Division Home Edge)
Key Edges:
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- Tampa Bay has the stronger recent offensive form
- Yankees lineup has struggled with a low recent OBP
- Shane McClanahan has excellent home numbers
- Gerrit Cole has shown recent run-prevention issues
- Rays have dominated at home against the division
Read:
Tampa Bay owns the better starter form, lineup form, and situational profile. At a manageable home favorite price, the Rays are one of the sharper moneyline looks on the card.
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals
Play: Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Over 9
Total: Over 9
Grade: B (Bullpen Volatility Over)
Key Edges:
- Houston has hit left-handed starters well
- Washington has shown home slugging upside
- Spencer Arrighetti enters with poor recent form
- Both bullpens carry volatility in this spot
- Nationals have been heavily tilted to overs at home
Read:
This total leans on offensive form and bullpen risk. With both relief groups vulnerable and Washington trending over at home, the over has a solid path.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
Play: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Moneyline: Phillies -100
Grade: B- (Road Form Lean)
Key Edges:
- Philadelphia owns the stronger recent offensive form
- Reds lineup has struggled with a low recent OBP
- Cincinnati bullpen has been shaky at home
- Phillies have produced a positive road return
- Reds enter with poor recent team form
Read:
Philadelphia has the better current offensive profile and a more stable road form angle. The pick is playable near even money, though the pitching uncertainty keeps the grade modest.
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets
Play: Kansas City Royals Moneyline
Moneyline: Royals +133
Grade: B+ (Plus-Money Dog Value)
Key Edges:
- Kansas City lineup has strong recent batting form
- Mets offense has struggled at home
- Both starters carry recent form concerns
- Mets bullpen has been poor recently
- New York has been a weak home moneyline team
Read:
Kansas City offers value as a plus-money road dog against a Mets team with bullpen and home-form concerns. The Royals’ recent offensive form gives them enough upside to justify the dog price.
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Under 8
Total: Under 8
Grade: B (Starter Under Profile)
Key Edges:
- Jake Bennett has strong recent WHIP and ERA form
- Davis Martin has excellent home run-prevention numbers
- White Sox offense has been cold recently
- Both bullpens profile well in this setting
- Under trends support the matchup angle
Read:
This is a starting pitching and run-prevention read. With both arms limiting damage and Chicago’s offense struggling, the under is the sharper side.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
Play: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Moneyline: Guardians +117
Grade: B+ (Split-Based Dog)
Key Edges:
- Cleveland has hit left-handed pitching well
- Slade Cecconi enters with improved recent form
- Minnesota bullpen has struggled badly recently
- Guardians have a strong return against left-handed starters
- Plus-money dog value against a shaky home favorite
Read:
Cleveland’s lefty split and bullpen edge make the dog price attractive. Minnesota’s relief issues create late-game risk for the favorite.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 8
Total: Over 8
Grade: B (Bullpen Over Angle)
Key Edges:
- Both lineups have usable platoon splits
- Kyle Harrison has struggled in recent starts
- St. Louis bullpen has shown poor recent form
- Both teams carry enough slugging upside
- Lower total creates playable over value
Read:
The over is built around recent starter regression and bullpen vulnerability. If Harrison’s recent form continues, this game can clear the number without needing an extreme offensive outburst.
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers Moneyline
Moneyline: Rangers -155
Grade: B (Home Bullpen Edge)
Key Edges:
- Texas owns the stronger recent offensive form
- Angels lineup has been cold recently
- MacKenzie Gore has better home splits
- Angels bullpen has struggled on the road
- Rangers bullpen has performed well at home
Read:
Texas has the better current lineup form and bullpen profile. The price is a little heavier, but the home edge and Angels road struggles support the favorite.
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Colorado Rockies +1.5
Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (-102)
Grade: B+ (Run-Line Value)
Key Edges:
- Colorado lineup has been in strong recent form
- Rockies have produced strong recent run-line value
- Roki Sasaki has struggled badly in recent starts
- Dodgers have been poor against the run line recently
- Colorado bullpen has been in better recent form
Read:
This is a run-line value play against a vulnerable favorite. With Colorado hitting well and Sasaki struggling, the +1.5 has a strong cover path.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
Moneyline: Diamondbacks +129
Grade: B (Road Dog Value)
Key Edges:
- Arizona has hit well on the road against the division
- San Diego offense has been weaker at home in division play
- Diamondbacks bullpen is in better recent form
- Plus-money dog value in a lower-scoring profile
- Arizona has produced positive returns in this road matchup type
Read:
Arizona brings enough offensive and bullpen edges to justify the plus-money price. San Diego has the starting pitching advantage, but the market leaves room for Diamondbacks value.
