The Atlanta Braves visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, and on the Night Moves Show, Ramon Scott worked through a game headlined by a struggling ace before landing on the over. With Paul Skenes scuffling and both offenses capable, Ramon expects runs in Pittsburgh.
Matchup Overview
Atlanta arrives having lost ten of its last fourteen games overall, including two straight and a run of nine losses that has raised questions about the club. Yet the Braves have beaten Pittsburgh in four of their last five meetings and have shown signs of hitting well against quality pitching even amid the slump.
Pittsburgh is 6-12 in Skenes’ starts despite his talent, a reflection of how little run support he receives. The Pirates have also swung the bats decently of late, scoring three or more runs against a string of good right-handers, which sets up an over-friendly environment if Skenes cannot find his form.
Pitching Matchup
The headline is Paul Skenes, who remains one of baseball’s most talented arms with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 30 percent strikeout rate, but who is in a genuine slump. His velocity is down, and over his last three starts he owns a 7.8 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP while allowing a .276 average, a real red flag.
Atlanta counters with Hurston Waldrip, who has a 1.64 WHIP and a 3.68 ERA over a couple of outings. Waldrip looked sharp in rehab but struggled in his return to action, allowing three earned runs in five and a third innings. Neither starter profiles as a lockdown option right now, which supports the over.
StatSharp Betting Snapshot
Skenes’ recent form is the crux of the over case. A 7.8 ERA over three starts with declining velocity is not the profile of a stopper, and the Braves, despite their overall slump, tend to hit right-handers well and score runs against righties. That matchup favors offense finding the scoreboard.
Pittsburgh’s own bats have been productive, scoring three or more runs against quality right-handers like Wheeler, Burns and Bryce Miller recently. With Waldrip shaky in his return and Skenes struggling, both lineups have clear paths to runs, which is the foundation of Ramon’s over lean.
Key Trends and Where the Value Is
The value in the over rests on two starters who are both vulnerable right now. Skenes’ velocity dip and rough three-start stretch, combined with Waldrip’s shaky return, create a run environment higher than the market’s number suggests. Ramon is betting that at least one of these arms gets touched up.
Atlanta’s offense is the swing factor. The Braves have been hitting well against good pitchers even during the slump, and a lineup this talented facing a struggling Skenes is a strong recipe for runs. If Atlanta breaks out here, the over cashes comfortably.
Pittsburgh’s bats provide the second engine. The Pirates have scored against a run of quality right-handers, and against a rusty Waldrip they should have chances. Two engaged offenses facing two vulnerable starters is the classic over profile, and Ramon leaned into it.
Ramon acknowledged the mental-block concern with Atlanta’s nine-loss stretch, which made him hesitant to back the Braves outright. But betting the over sidesteps the question of which team wins and simply requires runs, which both offenses are positioned to provide.
The Case for the Under
The under case is that Skenes is immensely talented and could snap out of his funk at any moment, and a dominant Skenes start would quiet the Pittsburgh side of the ledger quickly. Atlanta’s slump could also continue, leaving the Braves quiet and the total low.
Ramon respected that Skenes’ ceiling is the biggest risk to the over, but he leaned on the pitcher’s recent form and declining velocity. Betting on a struggling ace to suddenly dominate is a tougher ask than trusting two capable offenses against two shaky starters.
Recent Form and Momentum
Skenes’ three-start slide with a 7.8 ERA is the momentum factor pointing toward the over. Slumps for pitchers, especially those tied to velocity dips, do not always resolve in a single start, and Atlanta’s lineup is well positioned to take advantage of a compromised ace.
Pittsburgh’s recent offensive production against good pitching adds to the case. A Pirates lineup that has been scoring, facing a rusty Waldrip, should contribute its share of runs. Ramon is betting the collective total clears the number in Pittsburgh.
Adding it up, Skenes’ rough form, Waldrip’s shaky return and two capable offenses make the over the value side in this matchup between the Braves and Pirates.
The Skenes Slump and the Over
Fading a pitcher as talented as Paul Skenes takes conviction, and Ramon built his over play on concrete evidence rather than a hunch. A 7.8 ERA over three starts, a 1.47 WHIP and a .276 average against, all paired with declining velocity, is a genuine slump, not a blip.
Velocity dips in particular are a red flag, because they often signal fatigue or a mechanical issue that does not resolve in a single start. Against a Braves lineup that hits right-handers well, a diminished Skenes is far more hittable than his season-long numbers suggest.
Atlanta’s offense is the swing factor, and even during its nine-loss stretch the Braves have hit well against quality pitching. A talented lineup facing a struggling ace is a strong recipe for runs, and if Atlanta breaks out here, the over cashes comfortably.
Pittsburgh’s bats are the second engine. The Pirates have scored three or more runs against a run of good right-handers recently, including Wheeler and Burns, and against a rusty Waldrip they should find chances. Two engaged offenses is exactly what the over wants.
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Waldrip’s shaky return compounds the case. He looked fine in rehab but struggled in his return to action, allowing three earned in five and a third, and against a Pittsburgh lineup that has been productive, another rocky outing is very possible.
Ramon’s hesitation was the Braves’ mental block during the nine-loss slide, which made him wary of backing Atlanta outright. But the over sidesteps that question entirely, requiring only runs rather than a specific winner, which is why it is the cleaner play.
Put together, a slumping Skenes, a rusty Waldrip and two capable offenses point to a higher-scoring game than the market projects. Ramon takes the over and lets both lineups do the work against two vulnerable arms.
Ramon also noted that when he distrusts both starting pitchers in a game, the over becomes the natural landing spot, and here neither Skenes in his slump nor a rusty Waldrip inspires confidence.
That double dose of pitching uncertainty, layered on top of two productive lineups and the ten-of-thirteen over trend, is why Ramon is firmly on the over for Braves and Pirates.
It is worth remembering how unusual Skenes’ current stretch is for a pitcher of his talent. Losing six straight starts and surrendering eleven runs across his last two is the kind of slide that reflects more than bad luck, and betting against a struggling ace in that state is a defensible, evidence-based position rather than a contrarian gamble.
The Braves, for all their recent losing, remain a dangerous offensive team that mashes right-handed pitching, and a lineup that talented does not stay quiet forever. Facing a compromised Skenes, Atlanta has both the motivation and the ability to break out, which is a direct boost to the over.
Pittsburgh’s bats round out the picture, having produced against a string of good right-handers lately. With Waldrip rusty and Skenes slumping, both offenses have realistic paths to multiple runs, and Ramon needs only the combined total to clear a modest number.
Ramon Scott’s Betting Odds Pick
Ramon takes the over, trusting Paul Skenes’ recent struggles and declining velocity, Hurston Waldrip’s shaky return and two offenses capable of scoring to push this total over the number in Pittsburgh.
Give me the over as Ramon’s betting odds pick for Braves and Pirates.
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