Chris Adkins is back on the Tony’s Picks channel with a fresh edition of his Home Run Hit List for Monday, July 6, and he is riding some serious momentum. The card is on the smaller side today, but the profile of each pick is strong, with every hitter drawing a matchup that ties directly to the pitch types and platoon splits that get baseballs into the seats. Below we break down all six sluggers Chris is backing to go deep, why the matchups matter, and how he wants you to structure the plays.
Riding a Hot Streak Into Monday
Momentum is real in the long-ball business, and Chris enters Monday with plenty of it. He cashed five home runs on Sunday, headlined by Luis Garcia Jr. from the video itself, then added four more from the bonus picks he dropped in the comments — Colson Montgomery, Heriberto Hernandez, Riley Green, and Kyle Karros. That kind of hit rate is exactly why the notifications matter, because the comment updates often carry as much value as the main card.
The approach today stays disciplined. Chris is targeting hitters who own favorable handedness splits against the arm on the mound, and who have a track record of punishing the specific pitch that starter throws most often. It is a repeatable, data-first process rather than a hunch, and it is the reason the Hit List keeps producing.
Alec Bohm – Phillies (2:10 ET)
We open in the afternoon with the Phillies and Royals at 2:10 Eastern, 85 degrees, wind blowing in at five miles per hour. Chris wants Alec Bohm to go deep against Noah Cameron. Cameron has surrendered seven home runs to right-handed batters this season, and Bohm carries four home runs off left-handed pitching. Cameron leans on a four-seam fastball roughly 28 percent of the time, and Bohm already has four of his home runs off that exact pitch type. The wind blowing in is the only knock, but the matchup profile is clean.
Trent Grisham – Yankees (6:40 ET)
Next up is the Yankees in a domed environment at 6:40 Eastern, so weather is a non-factor — always a plus for a power play. Chris is taking Trent Grisham, who has previously homered in prior at-bats against this arm. The pitcher has allowed seven home runs to left-handed batters, and Grisham brings seven home runs off right-handed pitching. Even better, the starter works with a sweeper and a sinker, and Grisham has already taken both pitch types deep. A neutral ballpark and a proven matchup make this one of the sturdier looks on the board.
CJ Abrams – Nationals (6:45 ET)
The Nationals play at 6:45 Eastern in 81-degree weather with the wind blowing in at six miles per hour. Chris is all over CJ Abrams here, and the numbers explain why. The opposing starter has given up 13 home runs to left-handed batters, and Abrams counters with a massive 15 home runs against right-handed pitching — one of the loudest platoon edges on the entire card. The pitcher throws a changeup about 34 percent of the time, and Abrams owns four home runs off that offering. Volume and matchup both point in his favor.
Matt Olson – Braves (7:15 ET)
Chris circles back to Matt Olson with the Braves at 7:15 Eastern, 82 degrees, wind blowing out at three miles per hour — a subtle boost for a left-handed slugger. He calls this a day-late pick, running it back after Olson narrowly missed. Olson has homered against this starter before, and the arm has allowed 12 home runs to left-handed batters.
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Olson answers with 13 home runs off right-handed pitching. The pitcher pumps a four-seam fastball 52 percent of the time, and Olson has six home runs off that pitch. Wind blowing out plus a heavy fastball diet is exactly the recipe he likes for a left-handed bat.
Jackson Merrill – Padres (9:40 ET)
Out west, the Padres take the field at 9:40 Eastern in 69-degree air with the wind blowing left to right at 11 miles per hour. Chris wants Jackson Merrill to do damage. The opposing starter has allowed seven home runs to left-handed batters, and Merrill has eight home runs off right-handed pitching. That starter also relies on a four-seam fastball around 28 percent of the time, and Merrill has three home runs off the pitch type. The crossing wind adds a little variance, but the underlying matchup checks the important boxes.
Hunter Goodman – Rockies (10:10 ET)
The nightcap sends the Rockies out at 10:10 Eastern, 71 degrees, wind blowing out at seven miles per hour. Chris closes the card with Hunter Goodman facing Eric Lauer. Goodman has homered off this arm before, and Lauer has surrendered 13 home runs to right-handed batters. Goodman brings seven home runs off left-handed pitching to the table. Lauer throws a four-seam fastball 44 percent of the time, and Goodman leads the group with eight home runs off that pitch type. Wind blowing out is the cherry on top of a strong closer.
Today’s Full Hit List
To recap, Chris is backing Alec Bohm, Trent Grisham, CJ Abrams, Matt Olson, Jackson Merrill, and Hunter Goodman to each leave the yard on Monday. Keep your notifications on, because he will be updating the comments as these hit and adding a few more from the games he did not have full data for at video time. Those bonus plays cashed four times on Sunday, so they are worth watching for.
How to Bet the Hit List
Chris is firm on strategy: play these as straight bets rather than stacking them into a parlay. Each of these hitters returns plus money on their own, and one or two inevitably falling short should not sink your whole slip. Spreading the risk across individual wagers keeps you in the green even on a partial night. It is the responsible way to chase home run value, and it is how the Hit List has stayed profitable.
Remember to gamble responsibly. These are free picks for entertainment and informational purposes — never wager more than you can afford to lose, and if betting stops being fun, step away or reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for support.
