Ramon Scott heads to Cincinnati next as the Baltimore Orioles look to keep rolling against the Reds in what has been a strange series between two clubs with nearly identical records. It is a pick-em on the board, but Ramon sees momentum firmly on Baltimore’s side, and he is willing to back the Orioles at even odds to make it three straight over a Cincinnati team that keeps sinking.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Kyle Bradish gets the nod for Baltimore, entering at five-and-eight with a 3.77 ERA. He has been particularly sharp of late, striking out thirty percent of the batters he has faced across his last three starts, and while his .251 average against sits above a .314 BABIP, the recent form is trending the right way. Nick Lodolo counters for Cincinnati with a 5.05 ERA and a two-and-two record, and he is listed as questionable, adding a layer of uncertainty to the Reds’ side of the matchup.
Lodolo’s season line is unflattering, and the Reds are just two-and-eight when he takes the mound, but Ramon was fair in noting that the left-hander has been sharper recently. Lodolo comes in off back-to-back scoreless starts, surrendering just three hits combined across his last two outings before being removed. The Orioles do tend to struggle against left-handers, which is the one angle that could keep Cincinnati in this, and even in his poor stretches Lodolo has limited the home run despite Baltimore’s power-based approach.
Team Form and Trends
Baltimore has suddenly reeled off three wins in a row and has taken each of the first two games of this series on the road by three runs apiece. The Reds, meanwhile, look increasingly lost, having dropped seven of their last ten and scoring two or fewer runs in five of their last six games. Ramon sensed a team in real danger of losing contact in its race if it cannot right the ship, and Cincinnati’s offensive drought is the clearest symptom of that slide.
Both clubs carry strong over tendencies at these venues, with Baltimore twenty-five-and-seventeen to the over on the road and Cincinnati twenty-five-and-eighteen to the over at home. That points to a game that could feature runs, but Ramon’s focus is on the side. The Orioles have simply outplayed the Reds in this series, and a Cincinnati offense stuck in a funk against a sharp Bradish is a tough sell to suddenly reverse course.
Key Stats and the Value
The pick-em pricing is what makes this attractive. Two teams with very similar records are separated, in Ramon’s eyes, by momentum and current form, and both of those tilt toward Baltimore. Bradish’s thirty-percent strikeout rate over his last three starts pairs dangerously with a Reds lineup that has managed two or fewer runs in five of its last six. When a hot pitcher meets a cold offense at an even number, that is the kind of spot Ramon wants to attack.
The counter is Baltimore’s documented trouble with lefties, and Lodolo’s recent scoreless work gives that concern some teeth. But Ramon weighs the Orioles’ three-game surge and three-run road victories in this very series against a single soft spot, and comes down on the side of the team that is actually winning games right now. Basallo’s continued power surge for Baltimore only adds to the sense that the Orioles are the club in rhythm.
The Betting Angle
Ramon is taking the Orioles at the pick-em price. His reasoning is momentum-driven but grounded in the numbers: Baltimore is playing well, Bradish is missing bats, and Cincinnati’s bats have gone quiet at the worst possible time. When you can get a team riding a three-game winning streak, having already won the first two of a series on the road, at even money, the value lies with the club that has proven it can score and win in this exact matchup.
Bettors wary of Lodolo’s recent scoreless starts might prefer a smaller stake or a first-five look, but the straight money line captures Ramon’s read most directly. This is about trusting form and matchup over a coin-flip line that does not properly reflect how one-sided the series has felt so far.
The Pitching Picture in Detail
Kyle Bradish’s recent form is the engine of Ramon’s lean. Across his last three starts he has struck out thirty percent of the hitters he has faced, a genuinely strong rate that signals his stuff is playing. His .251 average against sits below a .314 BABIP, suggesting he has actually pitched a bit better than even his solid ERA indicates. Against a Reds lineup that has gone cold, that swing-and-miss ability is exactly the kind of edge that turns a pick-em into a lean toward Baltimore.
Nick Lodolo is the wild card. His 5.05 ERA and two-and-eight team record when he starts are ugly, and he is listed as questionable, but Ramon was fair in noting the left-hander has been sharper of late, tossing back-to-back scoreless outings with just three hits combined before being pulled. The Orioles do struggle against lefties, which is the one path to a Cincinnati upset. Even so, Lodolo has limited the home run despite Baltimore’s power-based approach, and his availability itself is not fully certain.
Momentum and the Series
Baltimore has flipped the switch, reeling off three straight wins and taking each of the first two games of this series on the road by three runs apiece. Basallo’s continued power surge has been a key ingredient, and the Orioles simply look like the more confident, more capable team right now. When a club is winning games at that clip and has already handled its opponent twice in the same series, backing them at an even number is a natural spot.
Cincinnati, by contrast, is sliding. The Reds have lost seven of their last ten and have managed two or fewer runs in five of their last six games, an offensive drought that pairs poorly with a sharp Bradish on the mound. Ramon sensed a team in danger of losing contact in its race if it cannot solve its scoring issues, and there is nothing in the recent sample to suggest a sudden turnaround is imminent against a pitcher missing this many bats.
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Both clubs carry strong over tendencies at these venues, with Baltimore twenty-five-and-seventeen to the over on the road and Cincinnati twenty-five-and-eighteen to the over at home, so a bettor eyeing runs has a case. But Ramon’s focus is the side. A hot pitcher facing a cold offense at a pick-em price is the kind of value spot he wants, and the Orioles’ three-game surge gives him the confidence to back them in Cincinnati.
Bottom Line in Cincinnati
The pick-em price is what elevates this from a lean to a play worth making. Two teams with nearly identical records are separated by momentum and form, and both tilt hard toward Baltimore. Bradish is missing bats at a thirty-percent clip over his last three starts, Basallo’s bat is heating up, and the Orioles have already won the first two games of this series on the road by three runs each. That is not a coincidence so much as a reflection of which club is playing better baseball right now.
Cincinnati’s lone lifeline is Baltimore’s documented trouble with left-handers, and Lodolo’s back-to-back scoreless outings give that angle some teeth. But he is also listed as questionable, and the Reds’ offense has scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six, a drought that is hard to reverse against a pitcher this sharp. Ramon backs the team that is actually winning games, trusting form and matchup over a coin-flip line that undersells how one-sided this series has felt to this point.
Final Prediction
Ramon Scott is on the Orioles to win in Cincinnati. Baltimore’s three-game streak, Bradish’s swing-and-miss form, and the Reds’ offensive funk all justify backing the road team at a pick-em. The lone caveat is Baltimore’s history against left-handers, so monitor Lodolo’s status and sharpness. For the rest of Ramon’s Sunday slate of free picks and his premium best-bet cards, head to his handicapper page at tonyspicks.com.
Remember that every pick carries risk and nothing here is guaranteed. Bet only what you can comfortably afford to lose, treat these selections as entertainment, and never chase a losing slate. If wagering ever stops being fun, step away and call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.
