Chris Adkins is back with his Sunday home run hit list, and the July 5 card is stacked with six sluggers he expects to leave the yard. He rolls into this slate on a heater, having cashed six home runs on Saturday behind a two-blast day from Yordan Alvarez plus long balls from Riley Greene and Junior Caminero. The formula never changes here at tonyspicks.com: these are free swings at plus money, and Chris wants them played as straight bets rather than stapled into one parlay.
How Chris Attacks the Hit List
Before the picks, understand the method. Chris leans on batter-versus-pitch-type data, handedness splits, ballpark heat and wind direction to find hitters in spots where the long ball plays up. Warm air and a breeze blowing out turn warning-track outs into souvenirs, so temperature and wind readings are baked into every call below. He is blunt about bankroll strategy too: parlaying six homers together is a lottery ticket, while backing each one straight lets a single blast pay while the rest chase.
Matt Olson vs. Nolan McLean (Mets at Braves)
The card opens at 12:30 p.m. Eastern in Atlanta with the temperature at 91 degrees and the wind blowing out at five miles per hour, ideal home run weather. Chris wants Matt Olson against Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has already surrendered six home runs to left-handed batters this season. Olson owns 13 home runs off right-handed pitching, and the matchup skews further in his favor by pitch type. McLean throws a four-seam fastball roughly 20 percent of the time, and Olson has tagged that pitch for six long balls.
Luis García Jr. vs. Bubba Chandler (Pirates at Nationals)
Next up is a 1 p.m. Eastern start in Washington, where it is 92 degrees with the wind again pushing out at five. Chris circles Luis García Jr. against Pirates arm Bubba Chandler, who has allowed seven home runs to left-handed hitters. García has been a menace versus righties with 16 home runs off them, and the pitch mix helps his case. Chandler pumps his four-seam fastball a heavy 52 percent of the time, and García has already clubbed five home runs against four-seamers this year.
Pete Alonso vs. Nick Lodolo
The afternoon slate rolls on at 1:05 p.m. Eastern with the temperature at 85 degrees and the wind blowing out at four. Chris takes Pete Alonso to go deep against left-hander Nick Lodolo, who has served up seven home runs to right-handed batters. Alonso has three home runs off lefties, and the underlying data is stronger than that raw split suggests. Lodolo mixes in a four-seam fastball about 26 percent of the time, and Alonso has punished the pitch for nine home runs, making this a live power spot.
Ben Rice vs. Joe Ryan (Twins at Yankees)
The one weather caution comes at 1:35 p.m. Eastern in the Bronx, where it is 82 degrees but the wind is blowing in at seven miles per hour. Even so, Chris trusts Ben Rice against Twins righty Joe Ryan, who has given up eight home runs to lefties. Rice has been one of the sneakiest power bats around with 18 home runs off right-handers. Ryan leans on a four-seam fastball 46 percent of the time, and Rice has taken that offering deep 12 times, more than enough to fight the breeze.
Jac Caglianone vs. Aaron Nola (Phillies at Royals)
At 3 p.m. Eastern in Kansas City the reading is 85 degrees with the wind blowing in at five. Chris still likes Jac Caglianone against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, noting Caglianone has taken him deep in a recent matchup. Nola has allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters, a big number that points to hittable mistakes. Caglianone carries nine home runs off right-handed pitching, and with Nola throwing his four-seam fastball 46 percent of the time, the young slugger’s seven homers off that pitch stand out.
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Mickey Moniak at Coors (Giants at Rockies)
The nightcap for this list is a 4 p.m. Eastern first pitch in Denver, where thin Coors Field air, 90-degree heat and an eight-mile-per-hour wind blowing out create a hitter’s paradise. Chris closes with Mickey Moniak against the San Francisco starter, who has coughed up six home runs to left-handed batters. Moniak brings 13 home runs off right-handers into the day. With the Giants right-hander throwing a four-seam fastball roughly half the time and Moniak owning six homers off the pitch, the altitude only sweetens the spot.
Final Word on Today’s Hit List
To recap, Chris Adkins wants Matt Olson, Luis García Jr., Pete Alonso, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone and Mickey Moniak all to go yard on Sunday. He plans to add more names in the comments of his video as the day unfolds and fresh data lands, so keep notifications on. Remember his golden rule: play these straight rather than as one parlay so you cash the plus money whenever a slugger connects.
As always, these are free plays for entertainment and information only. Betting should stay fun and within your means, never chasing losses. If gambling ever stops feeling like a game, help is available through the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700.
