Chris Adkins is back with a Fourth of July fireworks edition of his MLB Home Run Hit List, and he shows up scorching hot. Friday’s card cashed six home runs, three straight from the video with Luis Garcia Jr., Ben Rice, and Junior Caminero, plus three more from his comment-section additions. Now he has seven sluggers teed up for the holiday slate, and the weather is doing him plenty of favors.
Independence Day baseball means afternoon starts, blistering heat, and wind blowing out at several parks. Chris leans into 97-degree conditions in Washington and New York, a 99-degree furnace in Arlington, and outbound flags almost everywhere on the card. Here is the full rundown of every pick, the pitcher matchups behind them, and the numbers that earned each slugger a spot.
Ryan O’Hearn and Luis Garcia Jr. — Pirates vs Nationals (11:05 AM ET)
The early game gives Chris a rare double dip. It is 97 degrees in the capital with the wind blowing out at 5 mph, and he is taking a bat from each side. First up is Ryan O’Hearn, who draws Nationals starter Zack Littell, a righty who has surrendered 16 home runs to left-handed batters this season.
O’Hearn owns 10 home runs against right-handed pitching, and the pitch mix lines up too. Littell leans on his four-seam fastball 33 percent of the time, and seven of O’Hearn’s homers have come against that exact pitch type.
On the other side, Chris is riding the hottest bat on the card. Luis Garcia Jr. cashed on Friday’s list and faces Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft, who has allowed eight home runs to lefties. Garcia has 16 home runs off right-handed pitchers, and with Ashcraft throwing his four-seamer 35 percent of the time, Garcia’s five homers against that pitch type make the repeat look live.
Cody Bellinger — Twins vs Yankees (1:35 PM ET)
The Bronx bakes at 97 degrees with the strongest wind on the card, blowing out at 10 mph. Cody Bellinger gets Zebby Matthews, a matchup he has already won — Bellinger has taken Matthews deep in previous meetings.
Matthews has given up six home runs to left-handed batters, while Bellinger has seven homers against righties this year. The swing-and-miss pitch is the concern for Minnesota: Matthews throws his slider 17 percent of the time, and Bellinger has five home runs off that pitch type. Add the short porch in right field and the outbound gusts, and this is a classic Bellinger spot.
Joc Pederson — Tigers vs Rangers (4:05 PM ET)
It is 99 degrees in Arlington with the wind pushing out at 7 mph, and Joc Pederson owns the history here. He has three career home runs off Detroit starter Jack Flaherty, exactly the kind of prior-matchup dominance Chris hunts for.
Flaherty has allowed four home runs to left-handed batters, and Pederson has 13 homers against right-handed pitching. The pitch-mix edge is the loudest number on the card: Flaherty goes to his four-seam fastball on 49 percent of his pitches, nearly every other offering, and Pederson has six home runs against four-seamers. In this heat, mistakes over the plate carry.
Kazuma Okamoto — Blue Jays vs Mariners (4:10 PM ET)
Seattle is the coolest stop on the list at 70 degrees, but the wind is still blowing out at 5 mph and the matchup data carries the pick. Kazuma Okamoto squares up against Logan Gilbert, who has allowed six home runs to right-handed batters.
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Okamoto has been an equal-opportunity masher with 14 home runs off right-handed pitching. Gilbert throws his four-seamer 39 percent of the time, and Okamoto has nine home runs against that pitch type — the highest pitch-type total of any bat on today’s card. Even in a pitcher-friendly park, that is a real runway.
Ivan Herrera — Cardinals vs Cubs (just after 8:00 PM ET)
The Cardinals catcher gets the lefty matchup he wants under the lights, 75 degrees with a 7 mph crosswind running left to right. Ivan Herrera has already homered off Shota Imanaga in previous at-bats, and Imanaga has been homer-prone against righties, allowing 14 home runs to right-handed batters.
Herrera has four home runs against left-handed pitching, and Imanaga’s four-seam fastball, thrown 44 percent of the time, is the target — Herrera has three home runs off that pitch type. A fly-ball lefty facing a righty with prior success is textbook Hit List material.
Brandon Marsh — Phillies vs Royals (8:10 PM ET)
The nightcap pick is Brandon Marsh in an 87-degree evening with the wind blowing out at 5 mph. Marsh draws Michael Wacha, who has allowed six home runs to left-handed batters this season.
Marsh has quietly stacked 12 home runs against right-handed pitching, and Wacha’s four-seamer, used on 31 percent of his pitches, plays right into a swing that has produced four homers off that pitch type. As the last leg of the day, Marsh gives the card a live plus-money closer.
How to Play the July 4 Hit List
Chris’ recap: Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Garcia Jr., Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Kazuma Okamoto, Ivan Herrera, and Brandon Marsh, each to hit a home run today. His standing advice does not change for the holiday — play them as straight bets rather than a parlay. Every one of these prices comes back at plus money, so a six-of-seven day still profits, while a parlay dies with a single miss.
Keep notifications on for the video as well. Chris updates the comments as picks cash and adds bonus home run calls from the games he did not have data for at recording time, so the card can grow as lineups post. For the full breakdown in his own words, watch the video above, and find more free picks daily at tonyspicks.com.
Please gamble responsibly. Sports betting involves risk, and no pick is guaranteed. Never wager more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
