Free MLB Picks For Today 7/1/2026

MLB Pitching Preview for July 1, 2026

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Start Time: 12:35 PM ET

Noah Schultz starts for Chicago. Schultz is a left-handed pitcher with 8 starts and 8 appearances. He has a 5.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Schultz owns a 19.6% strikeout rate, 13.1% walk rate, 34.6% ground-ball rate and allows 0.9 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.75, more than one run below his ERA.

Dean Kremer starts for Baltimore. Kremer is a right-handed pitcher with 2 starts and 2 appearances. He has a 4.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Kremer owns a 37.2% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate, 36.0% ground-ball rate and allows 3.3 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.46, more than one run above his ERA.

The Pick

Chicago is batting .299 in their past six games with a .483 slugging percentage. Orioles in this period is batting .186 with a .284 slugging percentage. White Sox bullpen in better recent form. White Sox won five of seven with a +3-unit return. Orioles are 12-16 in their past 28 games with a -4.5-unit loss. Play White Sox +118.

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

Start Time: 1:10 PM ET

MacKenzie Gore starts for Texas. Gore is a left-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 4.05 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Gore owns a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate, 37.1% ground-ball rate and allows 0.8 home runs per nine innings.

Joey Cantillo starts for Cleveland. Cantillo is a left-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 3.87 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Cantillo owns a 23.6% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate, 41.4% ground-ball rate and allows 1.3 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

Texas is batting .267 in their past 27 games with a .416 slugging percentage. Cleveland is hitting .222 in their past 25 games with a .346 slugging percentage. Their bullpen in this period has an ERA of 4.83 with WHIP of 1.55. Rangers won 17 of 28 with a +5.7-unit return. Guardians lost 16 of 26 with a -6.3-unit loss. Play Texas -104.

Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox

Start Time: 1:35 PM ET

Andrew Alvarez starts for Washington. Alvarez is a left-handed pitcher with 5 starts and 10 appearances. He has a 3.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Alvarez owns a 26.8% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 55.0% ground-ball rate and allows 0.5 home runs per nine innings.

Payton Tolle starts for Boston. Tolle is a left-handed pitcher with 12 starts and 12 appearances. He has a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Tolle owns a 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate, 34.4% ground-ball rate and allows 0.8 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.18.

The Pick

Washington is batting .247 on the road with a .418 slugging percentage. Boston is hitting .240 at home with a .379 slugging percentage. Nationals are 26-18 on the road with a +17.8-unit return. Red Sox are 17-25 at home with a -14.8-unit loss. Play Washington +131.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Start Time: 1:35 PM ET

Troy Melton starts for Detroit. Melton is a right-handed pitcher with 6 starts and 6 appearances. He has a 2.39 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Melton owns a 17.2% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate, 38.5% ground-ball rate and allows 1.7 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.06, more than two runs above his ERA.

Will Warren starts for New York. Warren is a right-handed pitcher with 16 starts and 16 appearances. He has a 3.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Warren owns a 22.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 44.0% ground-ball rate and allows 1.0 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

Tigers are batting .242 in their past seven games with a .387 slugging percentage. NY is hitting .156 in this span with a .284 slugging percentage. Melton in his three road starts has an ERA of 1.74. Detroit bullpen in the past 26 games carries an ERA of 3.34. NY has lost six of eight with a -5.1-unit loss. Tigers are 5-5 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 with a +1.5-unit return. Play Detroit +125.

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Start Time: 2:20 PM ET

Walker Buehler starts for San Diego. Buehler is a right-handed pitcher with 16 starts and 16 appearances. He has a 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Buehler owns a 21.3% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 48.9% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

Colin Rea starts for Chicago. Rea is a right-handed pitcher with 13 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 4.80 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Rea owns a 17.0% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 44.9% ground-ball rate and allows 1.3 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

San Diego is batting .228 on the road with a .379 slugging percentage. Cubs are hitting .251 at home with a .410 slugging percentage. Buehler on the road has an ERA of 4.78 with WHIP of 1.53. Rea at home carries an ERA of 2.61. Cubs’ bullpen in the better recent form. Cubs have won seven of eight with a +6.7-unit return. Padres are 7-11 on the road against winning teams with a -3.4-unit loss. Play Cubs -127.

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays

Start Time: 3:07 PM ET

Freddy Peralta starts for New York. Peralta is a right-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Peralta owns a 22.0% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, 43.0% ground-ball rate and allows 1.2 home runs per nine innings.

Spencer Miles starts for Toronto. Miles is a right-handed pitcher with 2 starts and 23 appearances. He has a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Miles owns a 24.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, 54.3% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

NY is hitting .231 against right-handed starters with a .377 slugging percentage. Blue Jays are batting .255 against right-handed starters with a .399 slugging percentage. Peralta in his past five starts has an ERA of 6.39 with a .495 slugging percentage against. Miles numbers are better at home. Blue Jays bullpen in better recent form. NY is 16-26 on the road with a -13-unit loss. Toronto is 5-1 at home facing teams with a .380-to-.460-win percentage with a +3.6 unit return. Play Blue Jays +103.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Start Time: 6:40 PM ET

Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh. Skenes is a right-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 3.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Skenes owns a 30.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and allows 0.9 home runs per nine innings.

Zack Wheeler starts for Philadelphia. Wheeler is a right-handed pitcher with 12 starts and 12 appearances. He has a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Wheeler owns a 26.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 46.6% ground-ball rate and allows 1.0 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.35, more than one run above his ERA.

The Pick

Pittsburgh is batting .241 on the road with a .389 slugging percentage. Philadelphia is hitting .253 at home with a .442 slugging percentage. Skenes in his past five starts has an ERA of 4.23. Wheeler in his past five starts carries an ERA of 1.71 with WHIP of 0.88. Pirates’ bullpen in their past 26 games has an ERA of 5.08 with WHIP of 1.48. Phillies have won 19 of 29 with a +8-unit return. Pittsburgh is 11-16 as a road underdog of +100 or higher with a -2.5-unit loss. Play Philadelphia -133.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Start Time: 7:15 PM ET

Michael McGreevy starts for St. Louis. McGreevy is a right-handed pitcher with 16 starts and 16 appearances. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. McGreevy owns a 16.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 45.3% ground-ball rate and allows 1.2 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.27, more than one run above his ERA.

Reynaldo Lopez starts for Atlanta. Lopez is a right-handed pitcher with 6 starts and 19 appearances. He has a 3.47 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Lopez owns a 19.9% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 35.8% ground-ball rate and allows 1.2 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.47, exactly one run above his ERA.

The Pick

St Louis is batting .264 in their past 25 games with a .411 slugging percentage. Braves are hitting .214 in their past 23 games with a .337 slugging percentage. St Louis is 20-17 on the road with a +5.9-unit return. Braves are 9-14 in their past 23 games with a -10.1-unit loss. Play St Louis +115.

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals

Start Time: 7:40 PM ET

Shane McClanahan starts for Tampa Bay. McClanahan is a left-handed pitcher with 15 starts and 15 appearances. He has a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. McClanahan owns a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.0% walk rate, 44.8% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

Seth Lugo starts for Kansas City. Lugo is a right-handed pitcher with 16 starts and 16 appearances. He has a 4.18 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Lugo owns an 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 38.0% ground-ball rate and allows 1.0 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

Rays are batting .308 in their past five games with a .585 slugging percentage. KC is hitting .181 in this period with a .275 slugging percentage. Lugo in his past four starts has an ERA of 6.52 with .635 slugging percentage against. Rays bullpen allowed five runs in their past 25 games. Royals’ bullpen allowed 29 runs in their past 18 1/3rd innings. KC is 6-17 against left-handed starters with a -12.8-unit loss. Rays are 4-1 on the road facing a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.55 or higher with a +3-unit return. Play Tampa Bay -135.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Start Time: 8:10 PM ET

Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati. Abbott is a left-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 3.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Abbott owns a 17.9% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate, 39.9% ground-ball rate and allows 1.5 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.04, more than one run above his ERA.

Shane Drohan starts for Milwaukee. Drohan is a left-handed pitcher with 6 starts and 16 appearances. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Drohan owns a 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, 42.9% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

Cincinnati is batting .224 in their past 26 games with a .381 slugging percentage. Milwaukee is hitting .273 in their past 27 games with a .461 slugging percentage. Brewers’ bullpen has performed well at home. Red’s pen has an ERA of 5.18 with WHIP of 1.61 on the road. They are 2-12 against the division on the road. Milwaukee is 13-5 against the division with a +6.4-unit return. Play Brewers -165.

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

Start Time: 8:10 PM ET

Taj Bradley starts for Minnesota. Bradley is a right-handed pitcher with 15 starts and 15 appearances. He has a 3.98 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Bradley owns a 25.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 33.3% ground-ball rate and allows 1.3 home runs per nine innings.

Tatsuya Imai starts for Houston. Imai is a right-handed pitcher with 11 starts and 11 appearances. He has a 5.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Imai owns a 28.7% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 46.9% ground-ball rate and allows 1.1 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.14, more than one run below his ERA.

The Pick

Minnesota is hitting .270 in their past 27 games with a .470 slugging percentage. Houston in this period is hitting .232 with a .303 slugging percentage. Imai at home has an ERA of 6.46. Twins are 12-8 on the road against losing teams with a +6.9-unit return. Houston is 8-10 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 with a -4.3-unit loss. Play Minnesota +110.

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies

Start Time: 8:40 PM ET

Max Meyer starts for Miami. Meyer is a right-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 2.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Meyer owns a 26.7% strikeout rate, 9.0% walk rate, 42.3% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

Kyle Freeland starts for Colorado. Freeland is a left-handed pitcher with 14 starts and 14 appearances. He has a 7.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Freeland owns an 18.3% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate, 38.2% ground-ball rate and allows 2.0 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.21, more than two runs below his ERA.

The Pick

Miami is batting .252 in their past 26 games with a .426 slugging percentage. Rockies are hitting .279 in this period with a .491 slugging percentage. Meyer in his past five starts has an ERA of 1.78 with .327 slugging percentage against. Marlin’s bullpen is better recent and monthly form. Marlins are 20-6 to the run line in their past 26 games with a +16.4-unit return. Rockies are 9-11 to the run line at home facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower with a -2.5-unit loss. Play Marlins on run line -1.5 runs at -105.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics

Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

Charlie Barnes expected to start for LA. Barnes appeared in three games, allowing three earned runs with two strikeouts in five innings. A fourth-round pick in 2017 and put up good numbers in Triple A this year. He worked 38 innings in 2017 for the Twins with an ERA of 5.92 with WHIP of 1.63 striking out 20.

J.T. Ginn starts for the Athletics. Ginn is a right-handed pitcher with 15 starts and 18 appearances. He has a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Ginn owns a 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate and allows 0.9 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

LA is batting .278 on the road with a .452 slugging percentage. Athletics hit .268 at home with a .462 slugging percentage. Dodgers’ bullpen in the past 28 games has an ERA of 5.00 with WHIP of 1.40. Athletics in this period has a pen ERA of 6.30 with WHIP of 1.50. Ginn at home has an ERA of 4.07 with WHIP of 1.60. Athletics are 25-14 to the over at home. Dodgers are 15-9 to the over on the road facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. Play Athletics and Dodgers over 9.5.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

Trevor McDonald starts for San Francisco. McDonald is a right-handed pitcher with 10 starts and 10 appearances. He has a 4.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. McDonald owns a 19.7% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 57.5% ground-ball rate and allows 0.7 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.00, nearly one run below his ERA.

Zac Gallen starts for Arizona. Gallen is a right-handed pitcher with 17 starts and 17 appearances. He has a 6.15 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Gallen owns a 13.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 44.3% ground-ball rate and allows 1.6 home runs per nine innings.

The Pick

San Francisco is hitting .243 against the division with a .288 OBP. Arizona is batting .268 against the division with a .437 slugging percentage. SF bullpen in worse recent form. They are 17-27 on the road with a -7.5-unit loss. Arizona is 13-1 at home facing teams with a .380-to-.460-win percentage with a +12.3 unit return. Play Diamondbacks -117.
Free MLB Picks For Today 7/1/2026

 

MLB Sharp Betting Card

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Play: Chicago White Sox +118
Moneyline: +118
Grade: B+ (plus-money dog)
Key Edges:

• White Sox own the stronger recent offensive form
• Chicago lineup showing better slugging upside
• Baltimore offense in a clear cold stretch
• White Sox bullpen gap in recent form
• Orioles carrying negative recent unit return
• Market still pricing Baltimore with home-field tax

Read:
Chicago checks the value-underdog box with better recent bats and a bullpen that has held up better than Baltimore’s. At plus money, the White Sox offer a playable price against an Orioles side trending down.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians

Play: Texas Rangers -104
Moneyline: -104
Grade: B (fair-price road side)
Key Edges:

• Texas owns the stronger recent lineup split
• Rangers have better offensive form over the larger sample
• Cleveland lineup has lacked slugging punch
• Guardians bullpen has been unstable recently
• Texas brings positive unit momentum
• Cleveland enters with a poor recent betting profile

Read:
Texas gets the nod as a near-pick’em with the better lineup form and a cleaner recent betting profile. Cleveland’s bullpen issues make it difficult to trust the Guardians late.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox

Play: Washington Nationals +131
Moneyline: +131
Grade: B+ (road dog value)
Key Edges:

• Nationals have produced better road value
• Boston has struggled to monetize home-field advantage
• Washington owns stronger road profitability
• Red Sox offense has been modest at home
• Plus-money pricing creates value on the live road side
• Market may be overrating Boston’s home spot

Read:
Washington is a live plus-money dog behind a strong road return profile. Boston’s weak home record makes the favorite price difficult to justify.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees

Play: Detroit Tigers +125
Moneyline: +125
Grade: B+ (form-based dog)
Key Edges:

• Tigers offense is in better recent form
• Yankees lineup has been cold over the short sample
• Detroit bullpen has been reliable recently
• Melton has shown strong road run prevention
• New York enters on a negative recent run
• Plus-money dog price adds market value

Read:
Detroit fits as a sharp underdog with better current form and a stronger recent bullpen profile. The Yankees’ offensive dip makes laying into New York risky.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Play: Chicago Cubs -127
Moneyline: -127
Grade: B (home favorite edge)
Key Edges:

• Cubs have the better home offensive profile
• Rea has been stronger at home
• Buehler’s road numbers are weaker
• Cubs bullpen owns the better recent form
• Chicago enters with strong win momentum
• Padres have struggled on the road against winning teams

Read:
Chicago has the better situational setup with stronger home production and bullpen support. The price is not cheap, but the matchup points toward the Cubs as the cleaner side.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays

Play: Toronto Blue Jays +103
Moneyline: +103
Grade: B+ (home dog value)
Key Edges:

• Toronto has the stronger lineup split against right-handed pitching
• Peralta enters with poor recent starting pitching form
• Miles has been better at home
• Blue Jays bullpen owns the recent edge
• Mets have been poor on the road
• Plus-money home dog pricing adds value

Read:
Toronto grades as a sharp home dog with the better recent pitching setup and a stronger bullpen angle. The Mets’ road profile makes them tough to back at this number.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

Play: Philadelphia Phillies -133
Moneyline: -133
Grade: B (premium arm support)
Key Edges:

• Wheeler brings the stronger current starting pitching edge
• Phillies offense has more home slugging upside
• Pirates bullpen has been vulnerable recently
• Philadelphia enters with positive team momentum
• Pittsburgh has struggled as a road underdog
• Phillies have the better late-game support profile

Read:
Philadelphia has the clearer path behind Wheeler’s recent dominance and a Pirates bullpen that has leaked runs. The price is manageable for the better overall setup.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

Play: St. Louis Cardinals +115
Moneyline: +115
Grade: B+ (plus-money road value)
Key Edges:

• Cardinals own the better recent lineup form
• Atlanta offense has been cold
• St. Louis has produced positive road value
• Braves have a poor recent unit profile
• Both starters carry some FIP regression risk
• Plus-money pricing favors the hotter lineup

Read:
St. Louis is the sharper side at plus money with better recent offense and a stronger road return profile. Atlanta’s current batting form does not justify favorite respect.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals

Play: Tampa Bay Rays -135
Moneyline: -135
Grade: A- (bullpen mismatch)
Key Edges:

• Rays have a major recent offensive form edge
• Royals lineup has been cold
• Lugo has struggled badly in recent starts
• Tampa Bay bullpen owns a clear gap
• Kansas City bullpen fatigue is a concern
• Royals have struggled against left-handed starters
• Rays fit the better road favorite profile

Read:
Tampa Bay has one of the cleaner cards on the board with lineup form, bullpen gap, and starter trend all pointing in the same direction. Kansas City’s bullpen issues create added late-game risk.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

Play: Milwaukee Brewers -165
Moneyline: -165
Grade: B- (expensive but logical)
Key Edges:

• Brewers own the stronger recent offensive form
• Milwaukee has the better slugging profile
• Reds bullpen has struggled on the road
• Brewers bullpen has been strong at home
• Cincinnati has been poor on the road within the division
• Milwaukee owns a strong division betting profile

Read:
Milwaukee is the right side, but the -165 price trims the value. The Brewers have the better lineup form and bullpen setup, especially against a Reds team struggling in division road spots.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros

Play: Minnesota Twins +110
Moneyline: +110
Grade: B+ (live road dog)
Key Edges:

• Twins have the stronger recent offensive form
• Minnesota owns better slugging momentum
• Houston lineup has lacked power production
• Imai has struggled badly at home
• Twins have been profitable on the road against losing teams
• Houston has struggled as a short home favorite

Read:
Minnesota offers plus-money value with the hotter lineup and a favorable matchup against Imai’s shaky home form. Houston’s offensive profile does not support favorite pricing here.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies

Play: Miami Marlins -1.5
Run Line: -1.5 (-105)
Grade: B+ (run-line value)
Key Edges:

• Meyer owns a strong starting pitching edge
• Freeland has been highly vulnerable
• Marlins bullpen is in better recent form
• Miami has strong recent run-line returns
• Colorado bullpen matchup is weaker
• Coors Field creates scoring separation potential

Read:
Miami has the pitching and bullpen edge needed to support a run-line play. With Meyer in strong form and Freeland struggling, the Marlins have a real path to margin.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics

Play: Los Angeles Dodgers and Athletics Over 9.5
Total: Over 9.5
Grade: B (bullpen-over angle)
Key Edges:

• Both lineups have strong road/home slugging profiles
• Dodgers bullpen has been shaky recently
• Athletics bullpen has been worse over the same stretch
• Ginn has weaker home run-prevention indicators
• Athletics trend strongly over at home
• Dodgers fit an over profile on the road against weak bullpens

Read:
This total is driven by bullpen vulnerability and two offenses capable of creating traffic. With both relief groups trending poorly, the over has late-inning scoring appeal.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -117
Moneyline: -117
Grade: B (home price edge)
Key Edges:

• Arizona owns the better division offensive profile
• Diamondbacks have more slugging upside
• Giants bullpen is in worse recent form
• San Francisco has struggled on the road
• Arizona has been excellent at home in this pricing/profile spot
• Short home favorite price keeps the market reasonable

Read:
Arizona is the preferred side at a fair number with the better home setup and stronger divisional hitting profile. San Francisco’s road struggles and bullpen concerns make the Giants hard to trust.