Why Chris Adkins Is Loading Up On Power Plays Monday
It is Monday, June 29, and Chris Adkins is back on tonyspicks.com with his daily MLB Home Run Hit List — a sweep of six bats he believes are walking into the right matchups, the right weather, and the right pitch types to leave the yard. Six games, six hitters, six straight bets that pay plus money when you let them run on their own.
The hit list is built on three pillars. How the pitcher has handled bats from the hitter’s side of the plate. How the hitter has performed against pitchers of that handedness. And what the dominant pitch type does when the hitter sees it. Layer in wind direction and temperature, and you have a quick read on which parks are ready to play tonight.
White Sox at Orioles — Andrew Benintendi Gets A Friendly Fastball
First pitch is 6:35 p.m. ET in Baltimore, with temperatures hovering around 84 degrees and the wind blowing out at four miles an hour. That is exactly the kind of evening Camden Yards punishes pitchers in, and Chris is leaning into a left-handed bat who has the tools for this matchup.
Andrew Benintendi gets the call against right-hander Shane Bos, who has surrendered five home runs to left-handed bats this season. Bos leans on a four-seam fastball roughly 40 percent of the time, and Benintendi has tagged that pitch shape for seven home runs against right-handers. Pitch type, plate side, history, and a wind blowing out — it all stacks. Take Benintendi to go yard.
Pirates at Phillies — Brian Reynolds Has Nola’s Number
Pittsburgh and Philadelphia get going at 6:40 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park, another 82-degree night with the wind blowing out at five miles an hour. Reynolds steps in against Aaron Nola, a pitcher he has already lifted for a home run earlier in this matchup history.
Nola has allowed 17 home runs this season — a sky-high total for a pitcher who lives near the zone — and he throws his four-seam fastball 27 percent of the time. Reynolds owns six home runs off right-handed pitching this year, and all six of those came against the four-seam pitch type. Combine the platoon edge, the pitch-type punishment, a fly-ball park, and a pitcher who has bled longballs all year, and you have a clean Reynolds spot.
Yankees at Tigers — Dylan Dingler Sits On A Fastball
Detroit hosts New York at 7:05 p.m. ET in Comerica Park, with temperatures around 78 degrees and winds carrying out at eight miles an hour. Comerica is big, but a wind blowing out shrinks it in a hurry, especially on the pull side.
Right-handed bat Dylan Dingler is up against left-hander Ryan Weathers, who has surrendered 13 home runs to right-handed bats this season. Weathers’ four-seam fastball arrives roughly 30 percent of the time, and Dingler has hit five of his home runs against the four-seam pitch type while collecting four total home runs against southpaws. The platoon edge, the fastball mix, and the breeze all point Dingler’s way.
Nationals at Red Sox — Wilson Contreras Meets A Sinker He Loves
Washington visits Boston at 7:10 p.m. ET. Temperatures sit around 76 degrees and the wind is blowing right-to-left at four miles an hour — not a textbook carry, but Fenway’s left-field wall does not need much help from the wind to get involved.
Right-handed bat Wilson Contreras has already taken Miles Michaels deep in this matchup history. Michaels has given up eight home runs to right-handed bats this season and throws his sinker about 32 percent of the time. Contreras has 12 home runs off right-handed pitching with eight of those coming against sinkers. Pitch type, plate side, history, and ballpark all line up neatly here.
Reds at Brewers — Sal Stewart Walks Into A Power Spot
Cincinnati and Milwaukee are off at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field. It will be 89 degrees with the wind blowing right-to-left at 12 miles an hour. That is a real wind, and American Family is already one of the most generous parks in baseball when the air starts moving.
Left-handed bat Sal Stewart faces right-hander Robert Gasser. Gasser has allowed four home runs to right-handed bats this season and uses a four-seam fastball about 21 percent of the time. Stewart has five home runs off left-handed pitchers and six home runs against the four-seam pitch type more broadly. Hot weather, a helping wind, and a hitter sitting on the fastball gives Stewart a real shot at a Monday-night souvenir.
Twins at Astros — Byron Buxton’s Bread And Butter
The day closes with Twins at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET, 88 degrees, winds blowing out at 12 miles an hour. Daikin Park playing roof-open with that kind of breeze is a different ballpark than the one we usually see — pull-side fly balls suddenly become opportunities.
Byron Buxton is one of the most prolific power bats in baseball this season. He owns 21 home runs against right-handed pitching, and Peter Lambert has surrendered six home runs to right-handed bats this year. Lambert throws his four-seam fastball about 28 percent of the time, and Buxton has nine home runs against the four-seam pitch type. The contact rate is always volatile with Buxton, but on a hot Texas evening with the wind cooperating, his 21-home-run pace makes him the bet of the night.
How To Play The Hit List On Monday
Chris is consistent with the strategy on every video — play these as straight bets. Stacking six plus-money home run shots into a single parlay is a recipe for one hitter ruining the whole ticket. Six independent bets keep the variance manageable and let the plus-money price do the heavy lifting when even two of them cash.
Notifications on YouTube is the move for the day. Chris updates the comments under the video as the home runs land and as additional plays come in from games he did not have full data on at video time. Tail the picks in real time and you will see the supporting work.
Final Pick And Where The Best Bets Live
Six straight home run plays: Andrew Benintendi, Brian Reynolds, Dylan Dingler, Wilson Contreras, Sal Stewart, and Byron Buxton — all to leave the yard on a Monday slate set up for fireworks across multiple parks. The recommendation is simple. Take all six as straight bets, sit back, and let the late-inning notifications do their work.
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