The Chicago Cubs travel to New York to face the Mets on Monday, and Ramon Scott sided with the road team on the Night Moves Show. With Shota Imanaga rounding into form for Chicago and a struggling Kodai Senga on the mound for New York, Ramon believes the Cubs hold the clear pitching edge and are the better side in this matchup.
The Line and the Lean
Chicago comes in as a slight favorite, a price Ramon was comfortable with given the starting pitching disparity. He acknowledged Imanaga is not perfect, but in a head-to-head with a faltering Senga, the Cubs profile as the stronger, more reliable team in this spot.
Ramon also floated the idea that this could be an over game given both starters’ vulnerabilities, but his official lean settled on the Cubs to win, trusting Imanaga to outpitch his counterpart.
Shota Imanaga Is Trending Up
Imanaga carries a 4.26 ERA, but the underlying metrics paint a better picture. He owns a sparkling 1.06 WHIP, a 25 percent strikeout rate and a 6 percent walk rate — the markers of a pitcher in control. Even more encouraging, he has rediscovered his form lately, posting a 3.78 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over his recent starts.
He is coming off arguably his two best outings of the season. Ramon noted that one of those came in Colorado, a tough environment, which makes the performance more impressive. A lefty throwing strikes and missing bats against a Mets lineup that has scuffled against left-handers is a favorable setup.
Kodai Senga’s Struggles
New York’s situation is far shakier. Senga has been hit hard this season, carrying ugly peripheral numbers including a 15 percent walk rate across just 24 innings. In his first start back from a rest-related injury, he gave up four earned runs in four innings against the Reds, hardly a confidence-builder.
Ramon was blunt, wondering aloud how Senga keeps his rotation spot given the results. A pitcher walking that many hitters and surrendering runs in bunches is a poor matchup against a Cubs lineup that can capitalize on free passes and traffic.
The Mets Are Reeling
New York limps into this game off back-to-back losses to the Phillies, getting crushed in both contests. Even at home as a slight underdog, the Mets are not a team Ramon wants any part of right now. He admitted he simply never wants to back this Mets group given how they have been playing.
While the Mets have been a bit better offensively of late, their struggles against left-handed pitching are a real concern with Imanaga on the mound. A reeling team facing a tough lefty matchup is a tough sell, even at home.
The Cubs’ Form
Chicago arrives in better shape, having won three of its last five despite a rainout that limited it to two games against Toronto over the weekend. The Cubs have been competitive and are getting quality starting pitching, exactly the formula that travels well into a tough road environment.
Ramon even mused about whether the Cubs are marching toward October, tempering it with the reminder that they need to get through June first. Still, the form and pitching edge point to Chicago in this spot.
Why the Cubs
The pick comes down to the starters. Imanaga is throwing the ball well, limiting walks and missing bats, while Senga is wild and getting hit. That gap, combined with the Mets’ poor recent form and struggles against lefties, makes the Cubs the logical side. Chicago does not need a blowout — just to let Imanaga control the game.
Ramon’s confidence is rooted in process: back the better, steadier starter and the team playing cleaner baseball, especially when the opponent is reeling at the plate against a matchup that does not suit it.
The Over Possibility
Ramon acknowledged this could turn into an over, given that both starters carry risk. Senga’s wildness could lead to a big Cubs inning, and if Imanaga has an off night, the Mets could chip in. But rather than chase the total, Ramon prefers the cleaner read on the side, trusting Imanaga to give Chicago the edge.
The Case Against
The risk is that Senga finds his command and the Mets’ bats wake up at home. Talented arms can flip a bad stretch in a single start, and New York has enough offensive ability to punish Imanaga if he leaves pitches up. Home underdogs coming off blowout losses also sometimes respond with their best effort. Backing the Cubs means betting that the recent trends hold.
Bottom Line
Ramon Scott’s official Night Moves play is the Chicago Cubs. Imanaga’s strong recent form, Senga’s wildness and struggles, and the Mets’ poor play and matchup disadvantage against lefties all point to the road team. Back the Cubs to ride their pitching edge to a win in New York.
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Imanaga vs Senga, Deeper Look
The contrast between these two starters could hardly be sharper. Imanaga is the picture of control, pounding the zone, missing bats and keeping his WHIP near elite levels. Senga, by comparison, is fighting his command, walking far too many hitters and putting himself in trouble inning after inning. Command is often the difference between a quality start and a disaster, and right now Imanaga has it while Senga does not.
For a side bet, that command gap is everything. A pitcher who avoids free passes controls the tempo of a game, while a wild starter hands the opponent extra outs and extra baserunners. The Cubs are well-positioned to take advantage of Senga’s control issues.
Matchup Splits Favor Chicago
The Mets’ struggles against left-handed pitching are a meaningful edge for Imanaga. A lineup that has not solved lefties is now staring at one of the better left-handers in the league while he is locked in. That is a difficult assignment for any offense, let alone one coming off back-to-back blowout losses.
Chicago’s lineup, meanwhile, draws a wild right-hander it can be patient against. Working counts and forcing Senga to throw strikes is a sound plan, and the Cubs have the discipline to execute it.
Momentum and Mindset
Momentum favors the Cubs. Winning three of their last five and getting strong starting pitching has Chicago feeling good, while the Mets are searching for answers after being crushed by Philadelphia. Confidence matters in baseball, and the Cubs are carrying more of it into this matchup.
Ramon’s reluctance to ever back this Mets group reflects a broader read on their reliability. Until New York shows it can string together quality games, fading them in tough matchups is a defensible stance.
Bullpen and Late Game
If Imanaga delivers the kind of start his recent form suggests, the Cubs should hand the late innings to their relievers with a lead. New York’s bullpen has had its own issues, and a reeling team trying to come from behind against a road club playing clean baseball is a tough spot for the home side.
The cleaner the Cubs keep the early and middle innings, the more the late-game math tilts in their favor, reinforcing the side play.
Final Word
Stacking it all up, the Cubs are the logical side. Imanaga’s command and recent dominance, Senga’s wildness, the Mets’ lefty struggles, and Chicago’s better form all point the same direction. Ramon acknowledged the over angle and the risk of a Senga bounce-back, but his confidence lives with the better starter and the steadier team. Back the Cubs to take care of business in New York.
