Happy Father’s Day, and welcome to Chris Adkins’ Home Run Hit List for Sunday, June 21. Chris is rolling after cashing five long balls on Saturday, and he is back with a seven-deep card of free home run picks for today’s MLB slate. Below is every name on the list, the pitcher each hitter is targeting, and the matchup data — handedness splits, pitch mix, and ballpark wind — that put them there. As always, these are best played as straight bets for the plus-money payouts.
Coming Off a Five-Homer Saturday
Chris built real momentum heading into Sunday. He banked two homers from Saturday’s video with Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper, then added three more from his comment-section sprinkles. That kind of run is exactly why the Hit List has become a daily staple. Now he turns the page to a loaded Father’s Day card with a clear theme: left-handed and right-handed power bats hunting four-seam fastballs from pitchers who have been homer-prone to their side.
Ben Rice vs. Chase Burns (Reds at Yankees)
First pitch is 1:35 ET in the Bronx, 81 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 mph — ideal launching conditions. Chris targets Yankees lefty Ben Rice against Reds righty Chase Burns. Burns has already surrendered seven home runs to left-handed batters and leans on a four-seam fastball 59% of the time. Rice owns 16 homers off right-handed pitching this year, including nine against four-seamers — a clean stylistic match in a hitter-friendly wind.
Jake Bauers vs. Bryce Elder (Brewers at Braves)
Also at 1:35 ET, the wind is blowing out 6 mph in 86-degree heat in Atlanta. Chris likes Brewers lefty Jake Bauers facing Braves righty Bryce Elder. Elder has allowed five home runs to left-handed hitters and throws his four-seamer 32% of the time. Bauers has 11 homers off right-handers, four of them off four-seam fastballs. Warm air and a ball carrying out of Atlanta only strengthen the spot for a pull-side lefty.
Alec Burleson vs. the Royals (Cardinals at Royals)
At 2:10 ET in Kansas City, it is 78 degrees with the wind blowing out a healthy 12 mph. Chris adds Cardinals lefty Alec Burleson, who has a strong personal history in this matchup and a homer already off the Royals’ starter. Burleson has launched 12 home runs off right-handed pitching this season, five of them against four-seam fastballs. With the wind helping, his all-fields pop plays up in a spacious but reachable park.
Isaac Paredes vs. Slade Cecconi (Guardians at Astros)
The 2:10 ET game in Houston is the hottest spot on the board at 90 degrees, wind out 13 mph. Chris targets Astros righty Isaac Paredes against Guardians righty Slade Cecconi. Cecconi has given up six home runs to right-handed batters and throws his four-seamer 26% of the time. Paredes, a notorious pull-side power hitter, has 10 homers off right-handers and three off four-seamers — a profile tailor-made for a yanked fly ball.
Pittsburgh’s Left-Handed Bat vs. Michael Lorenzen (Pirates at Rockies)
At 3:10 ET the Pirates visit Colorado, 89 degrees with the wind blowing left to right at 10 mph. Chris rolls out Pittsburgh’s left-handed power bat against right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The hitter brings 14 home runs off right-handed pitching, eight of those against four-seam fastballs, and has homered off this pitcher before. Lorenzen has been vulnerable to lefties, and any fly ball in the thin Colorado air carries a little extra. (Note: the player’s name was garbled in the source video; the matchup and splits are confirmed.)
Gunnar Henderson vs. Emmet Sheehan (Orioles at Dodgers)
At 4:10 ET in Los Angeles, it is a milder 73 degrees with the wind out 8 mph. Chris likes Orioles lefty Gunnar Henderson against Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan. Sheehan has been hit hard by lefties, allowing eight home runs to left-handed batters, and he throws his four-seamer a heavy 43% of the time. Henderson has 10 homers off right-handers and two off four-seam fastballs, with the swing speed to punish a fastball-first arm.
Juan Soto vs. Zack Wheeler (Mets at Phillies)
The nightcap is 7:20 ET in Philadelphia, 80 degrees with the wind left to right at 6 mph. After a wild Saturday in this series, Chris closes with Mets lefty Juan Soto against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has allowed five home runs to lefties and throws his four-seamer 41% of the time. Soto owns 13 homers off right-handers and seven off four-seamers, with three career bombs off Wheeler. Chris is sprinkling two units here, expecting a bounce-back.
Today’s Hit List Recap
The full Father’s Day card is Ben Rice, Jake Bauers, Alec Burleson, Isaac Paredes, the Pirates’ left-handed bat, Gunnar Henderson, and Juan Soto — all to go yard. Chris will update the comments as they land and add a few extra names from games he did not have data for at video time. Remember his rule: play these as straight bets rather than parlaying them, so you bank the plus money even if one or two miss.
Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available — call 1-800-GAMBLER.
