Coming Off a Five-Homer Friday
Chris Adkins is rolling, and the MLB Home Run Hit List is the best free long-ball menu going. Friday cashed five homers — Ben Rice and CJ Abrams straight off the video, plus Zack Neto, Wyatt Langford and Pete Alonso from the in-comment adds. The formula does not change: chase hitters with proven pop against the exact pitch a vulnerable starter throws most, in a ballpark and wind that reward it. Saturday’s June 20 card gives us six names with real power profiles and friendly matchups.
As always, these are best played as straight bets at plus money rather than parlayed together. One cold bat should not sink the whole slate. Let’s walk the board game by game and lock in today’s swings.
Colson Montgomery vs. Troy Melton — White Sox at Tigers
The 1:10 ET opener in Detroit sets up at 67 degrees with the wind blowing out at 13 mph — exactly what a Hit List wants. Colson Montgomery draws Tigers right-hander Troy Melton, who has already surrendered four home runs to left-handed batters this year. Montgomery has punished righties for 13 home runs, so the platoon edge is squarely in his favor.
The pitch-type math seals it. Melton leans on his four-seam fastball 44 percent of the time, and five of Montgomery’s home runs have come off four-seamers. Wind out to the gaps plus a fastball he can elevate makes Montgomery the leadoff swing on the card.
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Andrew Abbott — Reds at Yankees
At 1:35 ET in the Bronx, it is 81 degrees with the wind howling out at 15 mph, and the short porch is in play. Paul Goldschmidt faces Reds lefty Andrew Abbott, who has already given up eight home runs to right-handed hitters. Goldschmidt has five home runs off left-handed pitching, a clean platoon spot in a launching-pad park.
Abbott throws his four-seam fastball 47 percent of the time, and six of Goldschmidt’s home runs this year have come against four-seamers. Veteran bat, hot ballpark, wind blowing out — Goldschmidt is a strong straight-bet homer at value.
Seiya Suzuki vs. Patrick Corbin — Blue Jays at Cubs
The wind is blowing in 10 mph at Wrigley for the 2:20 ET game, so this one rides on a pure matchup edge rather than the breeze. Seiya Suzuki has already taken Patrick Corbin deep twice in his career, and Corbin has allowed seven home runs to righties this season. History plus a favorable handedness split keeps Suzuki on the list.
Corbin mixes in his sinker 28 percent of the time, and Suzuki owns three home runs off sinkers this year. Even with the wind knocking down some fly balls, a hitter who has already homered off this exact arm earns the swing.
Christian Walker vs. Joey Cantillo — Guardians at Astros
Houston’s 7:15 ET nightcap checks in at 88 degrees with the wind blowing out 10 mph — warm air and a carry-friendly breeze. Christian Walker steps in against Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo, who has allowed nine home runs to right-handed batters this season. Walker’s four home runs off lefties give him a tidy platoon lean.
Cantillo’s four-seam fastball accounts for 40 percent of his pitches, and Walker has five home runs off the four-seamer. A right-handed slugger, a homer-prone lefty and warm Houston air is a textbook Hit List recipe.
Bryce Harper vs. Freddy Peralta — Mets at Phillies
Citizens Bank Park hosts a 7:15 ET matchup at 79 degrees with the wind moving left to right at 9 mph. Bryce Harper has already homered twice off Mets righty Freddy Peralta, who has coughed up nine home runs to left-handed hitters this year. Harper’s 12 home runs off righties make this one of the cleaner spots on the board.
Peralta is a four-seam-heavy arm at 53 percent usage, and seven of Harper’s home runs have come off four-seamers. Proven head-to-head success, a hitter-friendly park and a fastball he hammers put Harper among the top plays.
Corbin Carroll vs. Taj Bradley — Twins at Diamondbacks
The 10:10 ET closer in the desert sits at 98 degrees with a light 5 mph wind, and that dry Arizona heat carries the ball. Corbin Carroll has homered twice off Twins righty Taj Bradley, who has allowed eight home runs to left-handed batters. Carroll’s 10 home runs against right-handed pitching anchor the matchup.
Bradley throws his four-seam fastball 49 percent of the time, and six of Carroll’s home runs have come off four-seamers. A speedy lefty bat with prior success against this starter, in baking Arizona air, makes Carroll a sharp way to close the slate.
Saturday’s Full Home Run Hit List Recap
Today’s six free home run best bets: Colson Montgomery, Paul Goldschmidt, Seiya Suzuki, Christian Walker, Bryce Harper and Corbin Carroll. Keep your notifications on — Chris updates the comments with in-game adds and additional names from games he did not have data for at video time. Play these as straight bets to bank the plus money, and let’s make it another winning Saturday.
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