MLB Home Run Picks Best Bet, June 19: Chris Adkins’ Hit List Locks In Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice & More

Chris Adkins is back with another edition of the Home Run Hit List, and Friday, June 19 delivers a loaded weekend opener with six fresh long-ball targets. Chris builds every name on the card the same way: confirmed batter-versus-pitcher history, how the opposing arm has been punished by that hitter’s handedness, the pitch type the pitcher leans on most, and the ballpark and weather that turn routine fly balls into souvenirs. Below is the full breakdown of today’s hit list.

Coming Off a Three-Homer Thursday

Momentum is on Chris’ side. Thursday’s card cashed three home runs — Bobby Witt Jr. straight off the video, plus Colson Montgomery and Juan Soto from the in-video comment adds. That is the rhythm of the Hit List: the six names below are the headline plays, but Chris keeps dropping extra calls in the comments as lineups and weather firm up, so keeping notifications on is worth it. Now let’s get to Friday’s six.

Michael Busch vs. Kevin Gausman — Cubs at Blue Jays

First up is Cubs first baseman Michael Busch against Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman in the 2:20 ET matinee, 70 degrees with the wind blowing in nine miles per hour. Busch already owns a home run off Gausman in their prior meetings, exactly the kind of proven track record Chris hunts. Gausman has surrendered five homers to left-handed bats this year, and the lefty-swinging Busch carries six long balls off righties into the afternoon.

The pitch-type edge seals it. Gausman throws his four-seam fastball on 53% of his offerings — more than half the time — and Busch has already taken four of his home runs off four-seamers. That is a hitter who punishes the exact pitch he is most likely to see. The wind blowing in is the only knock, but the underlying matchup profile is clean.

Dylan Dingler vs. Eric Fedde — White Sox at Tigers

Next is Tigers catcher Dylan Dingler facing White Sox right-hander Eric Fedde at 6:40 ET, 69 degrees with the wind howling out at 16 miles per hour — premium home-run weather. Dingler has gone deep off Fedde before. Fedde has been generous to righties with 11 home runs allowed to right-handed batters, and Dingler brings 12 homers off right-handed pitching into the night.

Fedde’s calling card is his sweeper, which he throws 44% of the time, and Dingler has tagged four of his home runs off that exact pitch. With the ball carrying out of the park and a hitter who handles the breaking ball Fedde leans on, this is one of Chris’ cleaner weather-aided spots on the entire board.

Ben Rice vs. the Reds — Yankee Stadium Power Spot

Chris circles back to Yankees slugger Ben Rice for what he calls a day-late make-good, and Yankee Stadium’s short porch makes it an easy spot to revisit. First pitch is 7:05 ET at 79 degrees with the wind blowing out 15 miles per hour. Rice draws a Reds starter who has already allowed three home runs to left-handed bats, and Rice carries a hefty 15 homers off right-handed pitching.

The opposing righty leans on his four-seam fastball roughly 28% of the time, and Rice owns eight home runs off four-seamers — comfortably his most productive pitch to ambush. Wind blowing out in the Bronx with a left-handed pull hitter who already has 15 bombs off right-handers is the textbook Hit List profile.

CJ Abrams vs. the Rays — Dome Game in Tampa

Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams headlines the 7:10 ET spot against Tampa Bay. The game is under the dome, so weather is off the table — Chris notes it is not a factor either way. Abrams brings 12 home runs off right-handed pitching, and the Rays’ right-hander he draws has already coughed up four homers to left-handed bats this season.

The opposing arm throws his four-seam fastball around 22% of the time, and Abrams has three home runs off four-seamers. It is a slightly lighter pitch-type edge than the others on the card, but Abrams’ raw total against righties plus the neutral dome conditions keep him firmly in the mix as a straight-bet long shot.

Yordan Alvarez vs. Tanner Bibee — Guardians at Astros

The headliner is Astros masher Yordan Alvarez against Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee at 8:10 ET, 88 degrees with the wind blowing out nine miles per hour. Alvarez already has a home run off Bibee, and Bibee has allowed 10 homers to left-handed bats. Yordan’s 16 home runs off right-handed pitching is the biggest number on today’s card.

Bibee throws his four-seam fastball about 27% of the time, and Alvarez has seven home runs off four-seamers. Chris likes this one enough that he will not fault anyone sprinkling on a two-homer ticket or a first-plate-appearance home run prop for Yordan. When the best pure power hitter on the slate gets warm weather and a fastball he crushes, you pay attention.

Brian Reynolds vs. Kyle Freeland — Pirates at Rockies

Chris closes at altitude with Pirates switch-hitter Brian Reynolds against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland at 8:40 ET, 85 degrees with the wind blowing right to left at eight miles per hour. Coors Field needs no introduction as a launching pad, and Freeland has already served up 14 home runs this season. Reynolds owns five homers off left-handed pitching.

Freeland throws his four-seam fastball about 26% of the time, and Reynolds has six home runs off four-seamers. Coors air, a lefty who has been homer-prone all year, and a hitter who handles the fastball — it is a fitting final name on a card built for fireworks.

Friday’s Full Hit List Recap

Here is the complete six-pack: Michael Busch, Dylan Dingler, Ben Rice, CJ Abrams, Yordan Alvarez and Brian Reynolds, all backed to leave the yard. Chris stresses what he always does — these are safest as straight bets. But it is Friday, and the Hit List tradition is to build a two-leg parlay (or a three-legger if you are feeling dangerous), sprinkle a little on top, and still play your straights. He will be updating live in the comments as they hit and adding names from games he did not have data for at recording time.

Betting carries risk and no home run pick is ever guaranteed — these are long-shot power plays, so wager responsibly, stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose, and treat the parlays as entertainment. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.