MLB Home Run Picks June 18: Chris Adkins’ Hit List Best Bets

Chris Adkins is back with his MLB Home Run Hit List for Thursday, June 18, and while it is a shorter card today, it still packs plenty of longball upside. Yesterday’s list stayed hot, cashing three home runs thanks to Joe Mack, Corbin Carroll and Paul Goldschmidt out of the bonus comments. Today Chris targets six hitters in favorable power spots, each one matched against a pitcher who has shown a tendency to surrender the long ball. As always, these are best played as straight bets rather than parlayed together so a single miss does not sink the whole card.

Jackson Chourio, Brewers vs. Guardians

The opener sends the Milwaukee Brewers into Cleveland for a 2:10 PM ET first pitch, with 70-degree weather and the wind blowing out at roughly 12 miles per hour, a tailwind that helps carry fly balls. Chris takes Jackson Chourio to go deep against Guardians starter Parker Messick. Messick, a left-hander, has already allowed six home runs to right-handed batters this season, and Chourio brings three homers off lefties into this one. Messick leans on a four-seam fastball for about 30% of his pitches, and Chourio has tagged that exact pitch type for two of his home runs.

Byron Buxton, Twins vs. Rangers

Next up, the Minnesota Twins visit Texas for a 2:35 PM ET start in scorching 96-degree heat with the wind blowing out around 13 miles per hour. Chris rolls with Byron Buxton against Rangers right-hander Jack Leiter, a hitter who has already homered off Leiter in a previous meeting. Leiter has surrendered five home runs to right-handed bats, and Buxton has been a monster against righties with 19 homers off them. Leiter throws his four-seam fastball about 33% of the time, a pitch Buxton has taken deep seven times this year.

Colton Cowser, Orioles vs. Mariners

The Baltimore Orioles head to Seattle for a 4:10 PM ET matchup with 75 degrees and the wind blowing left to right at 10 miles per hour. Chris likes Colton Cowser to clear the fence against Mariners righty Bryan Woo, another arm Cowser has homered against before. Woo has allowed six home runs to left-handed batters, and the lefty-swinging Cowser carries seven homers off right-handed pitching. Woo mixes in a slider on roughly 19% of his offerings, and Cowser has connected for three of his home runs against that pitch type.

Alec Bohm, Phillies vs. Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets at 6:40 PM ET in 87-degree air with the wind howling out at 17 miles per hour, arguably the best power environment on the card. Chris targets Alec Bohm against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea, off whom Bohm has already homered. Manaea has allowed four home runs to right-handed batters, and Bohm brings four homers off left-handed pitching to the matchup. Manaea relies heavily on his four-seam fastball at about 41% usage, and Bohm has hit three of his home runs off that pitch type.

Ben Rice, Yankees vs. White Sox

The New York Yankees welcome the Chicago White Sox at 7:05 PM ET with 84 degrees and the wind blowing out at 15 miles per hour. Chris backs Ben Rice to go yard against White Sox right-hander Sean Burke. Burke has been vulnerable to lefties, having allowed six home runs to left-handed batters, and Rice has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of 15 home runs this season. Burke goes to his four-seam fastball about 40% of the time, and Rice has done plenty of damage against that pitch with eight of his homers coming off it.

Bobby Witt Jr., Royals vs. Cardinals

The nightcap sends the St. Louis Cardinals into Kansas City for a 7:40 PM ET first pitch, with 77 degrees and a gentle left-to-right wind around four miles per hour. Chris closes the list with Bobby Witt Jr. against Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore has been hittable, allowing eight home runs to right-handed batters, and Witt already has a homer off a left-hander on his ledger this year. Liberatore throws a changeup on roughly 20% of his pitches, and Witt has taken that offering deep twice.

Today’s Hit List Recap

To recap Thursday’s Home Run Hit List, Chris is rolling with Jackson Chourio, Byron Buxton, Colton Cowser, Alec Bohm, Ben Rice and Bobby Witt Jr. to leave the yard. Each pick lines up a power bat against a pitcher who has already shown he can be beaten over the wall, and several of these matchups also enjoy favorable wind and temperature conditions. Chris recommends playing these as straight home run bets rather than stacking them into a parlay, since the plus-money payouts on individual longball props are where the real value lives.

How to Play the Card

Home run props are a high-variance market, so bankroll discipline matters as much as pick selection. Spreading these six selections across straight bets keeps you alive even if only one or two connect, and the plus-money prices mean a single hit can cover multiple misses. Keep an eye on confirmed lineups before first pitch, since a day off or a lineup shuffle changes the calculus, and monitor the wind reports, which are blowing out in several of these parks. Chris will also add bonus picks in the video comments as more game data becomes available.

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