MLB Home Run Picks, June 17: Chris Adkins’ Dinger Wednesday Hit List

It is a winning Wednesday on the Tony’s Picks home run hit list, and Chris Adkins is back with six free long-ball targets for the June 17 MLB slate. Chris cashed four dingers on Tuesday — including Ben Rice, Cody Clemens, Lane Thomas and a returning Drake Baldwin — and he rolls that momentum into a loaded card of early and afternoon start times.

Below is the full breakdown of every hitter on today’s list, the pitcher he is matched up against, and the data angle behind each call. As always, these are Chris’s free plays — straight bets only, no parlays — so you bank the plus-money value on each individual swing.

How Chris Builds the Home Run Hit List

Every name on the card clears the same three filters. First, the opposing pitcher has to be vulnerable to the long ball against that batter’s handedness. Second, the hitter needs a strong home run profile against that arm type. Third, Chris layers in the pitcher’s four-seam fastball usage and each hitter’s success against that exact pitch, then weighs in ballpark and wind. When all three line up, the bat earns a spot.

JJ Bleday vs Nolan McLean — Mets vs Reds, 12:40 ET

Chris opens in the Mets–Reds matinee in Cincinnati, first pitch 12:40 ET, 79 degrees with the wind blowing right to left at eight miles per hour. The target is JJ Bleday against right-hander Nolan McLean. McLean has surrendered five home runs to left-handed bats this year, and Bleday brings 10 homers off right-handed pitching. McLean throws his four-seamer roughly 20% of the time, and Bleday already owns four blasts off that pitch type.

Jac Caglianone vs Zack Latell — Royals vs Nationals, 1:05 ET

The second swing comes in the Royals–Nationals game at 1:05 ET, 84 degrees with the wind blowing out at seven miles per hour. Chris wants Jac Caglianone against Washington right-hander Zack Latell, who has been tagged for 13 home runs by left-handed hitters. Caglianone counters with five homers off righties. Latell leans on a four-seam fastball about 33% of the time, and Caglianone has already taken that pitch deep four times this season.

Bryce Harper vs Sandy Alcantara — Marlins vs Phillies, 1:05 ET

One of the headliners is Bryce Harper in the Marlins–Phillies game, 1:05 ET, 80 degrees, wind out at seven. Harper draws right-hander Sandy Alcantara, and the history is loud: three career home runs already off Alcantara. Alcantara has allowed nine homers to lefties this year, while Harper carries 12 long balls against right-handed pitching. Alcantara’s four-seamer comes about 21% of the time, and Harper has taken it deep seven times.

Alec Burleson vs Griffin Canning — Padres vs Cardinals, 2:15 ET

Chris goes back to a hot bat with Alec Burleson in the Padres–Cardinals game, 2:15 ET, 90 degrees and a strong 22-mph wind blowing out. Burleson, who Chris says “looks great again today,” faces right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning has given up eight home runs to left-handed hitters, and Burleson sits on 12 homers versus righties. Canning throws his four-seam fastball around 31% of the time, a pitch Burleson has already driven out five times this year.

Jo Adell vs Eduardo Rodriguez — Angels vs Diamondbacks, 3:40 ET

The lone right-handed bat on the list is Jo Adell in the Angels–Diamondbacks game, 3:40 ET, 106 degrees with the roof closed and the wind reading left to right at nine. Adell faces lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and already has a home run off him. Rodriguez has allowed seven homers to right-handed hitters, while Adell brings six long balls against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez uses his four-seamer a heavy 42% of the time, and Adell has six homers off that pitch.

Wilyer Abreu vs Max Scherzer — Blue Jays vs Red Sox, 6:45 ET

Chris closes the card in primetime with Wilyer Abreu in the Blue Jays–Red Sox game, 6:45 ET, 75 degrees and the wind blowing out at 11. Abreu takes on veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who has allowed six home runs to left-handed bats. Abreu answers with seven homers off righties. Scherzer is fastball-heavy, throwing his four-seamer roughly 47% of the time, and Abreu has already connected four times against that pitch this season.

How to Bet Today’s Hit List

Chris is firm on the strategy: play these as straight bets, not as a parlay. Because home run props pay plus money, betting them individually lets you cash even when one or two of the six do not go deep, instead of losing the entire ticket. He will also be updating the comments on his video throughout the day, adding more dingers from games he did not have data for at video time.

Final Home Run Card — June 17

Here is the full Wednesday list expected to leave the yard: JJ Bleday, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Harper, Alec Burleson, Jo Adell and Wilyer Abreu. Turn your notifications on, keep them as straight plus-money plays, and let’s make it a winning Wednesday.

Gambling involves risk. These are free, opinion-based picks for entertainment only, with no guaranteed outcomes. Always bet responsibly, within your means, and only with money you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.