UFC White House Freedom 250 Best Bets & Predictions: Millz Young’s Full Card Breakdown — June 14, 2026

Millz Young is back on the Tony’s Picks YouTube channel with a full breakdown of UFC White House Freedom 250, one of the most unique cards the sport has ever staged. The event takes place Sunday, June 14, 2026, with a 5:00 p.m. Pacific start time, and it is being held outdoors on the White House lawn. Word is the weather could turn rainy, which only adds to the spectacle. Millz runs through all seven fights, including two title bouts, with best bets on finishes, round totals, and the smartest ways to attack this historic card.

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

The card opens with a featherweight clash between Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia. Garcia comes in as a live plus-money dog around +124, with Lopes sitting near -148, and the round total is set at one and a half with the over priced around -140. Millz likes both fighters but ultimately trusts the favorite, pointing to Lopes having more paths to victory. The Brazilian can win by knockout, by submission, or by grinding out a decision if he controls position. Garcia brings serious power and a seven-fight win streak, so this is not a layup.

Because this is the first fight of an unprecedented night, Millz expects both men to be slightly hesitant early, with nobody wanting to be the cautionary tale on the White House lawn. That feeds his lean toward the over on one and a half rounds. His official call is Diego Lopes to get the job done, with the fight having a real chance to extend past the first frame as both fighters feel each other out before the finishing sequences arrive.

Bo Nickel vs Kyle Daukaus

Next up is a middleweight bout featuring Bo Nickel, who enters at roughly -310 and is one of Donald Trump’s well-documented favorite fighters. Nickel sits at 8-1 and draws a returning opponent who is 2-0 in the UFC with two finishes. Millz is not overly impressed by the challenger’s regional resume and views this as a get-right spot for Nickel, who has had ample time to prepare. He leans the over on one and a half rounds, priced around -154, while still believing Nickel can secure a late finish, likely by submission.

Millz frames Nickel as a strong parlay piece for the night, noting this card seems tailor-made for certain fighters with high-profile backing. Whether that storyline matters inside the cage or not, the betting takeaway is clear: he expects Nickel to advance and views the over as the safer way to play it rather than committing to a fast first-round stoppage. Pairing Nickel’s moneyline into a parlay with other favorites is the angle he is most comfortable with here.

Michael Chandler vs Marcel Ruffy

The next matchup pits Michael Chandler, another of the president’s favorite fighters, against a heavy favorite who opened as high as -650 and has settled near -600. The over on one and a half rounds is plus money at +100, while the under is around -130. Chandler is the live underdog, and Millz cannot resist the plus-money price tag. His path is the wrestling game plan: keep the head down, chain takedowns, and drag the fight to the scorecards or even land a ground-and-pound finish. If it reaches the judges, Millz believes Chandler gets the nod.

That said, Millz is honest about the risk. Chandler’s recent results have not been pretty, and his opponent owns a karate-style stance, dangerous range striking, and legitimate knockout power. Millz first leaned toward the under on one and a half rounds but admitted that backing Chandler to win complicates that position, since a Chandler victory likely requires a longer, grind-it-out fight. His gut still whispers under one and a half, but his wallet is on Chandler at plus money as a value swing.

Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit

This heavyweight scrap is where Millz plants his flag. Josh Hokit, the undefeated 9-0 prospect known as the Incredible Hulk, is a sizable favorite near -410, while the always-dangerous Derrick Lewis sits around +320. The under on one and a half rounds is priced near -210, and Millz calls it his most confident pick on the entire card. He played it earlier at -190 and has no hesitation, expecting Hokit to get the wrestling going and submit Lewis the same way he finished opponents on the regional scene.

Millz has followed Hokit for years and points out the young heavyweight was a massive favorite in nearly all of his earlier fights, sometimes north of -800, which makes this discounted -400 number feel like value. He respects Lewis’s one-punch power, especially in the opening round, so the under does carry the risk of an early Lewis knockout. But Millz expects controlled violence from Hokit and advises bettors to ride the under with him while parlaying Hokit’s moneyline into the slate’s other favorites.

Aiemann Zahabi vs His Opponent

In a competitive bantamweight bout, Aiemann Zahabi steps in as a sizable underdog near +330 against a favorite priced around -420. Zahabi is coming off surgery and a layoff, so there are questions about ring rust, yet Millz has been making money backing him, particularly as a dog. The over on two and a half rounds is around -190, and that is the play Millz likes most in this fight, expecting Zahabi’s forward pressure, kicks, and takedowns to drag his opponent into deeper, grinding waters.

Millz acknowledges the favorite is the faster, flashier fighter at 19-3, but he is not confident enough to parlay him at such a steep price. Instead, he is sprinkling a small play on Zahabi as a live underdog, citing the detailed, round-by-round game plan Zahabi’s corner — coached by his brother — is sure to deliver. The official position: hammer the over two and a half rounds, with a modest underdog flier on Zahabi himself for those who want the bigger payout.

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane — Interim Heavyweight Title

The co-feature is a five-round interim heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira, who is moving up in weight, and Ciryl Gane. Millz admits he cannot get a clean read and the odds are essentially pick’em on both sides. The over on two and a half rounds is around -160, and he expects a technical kickboxing match between two fighters who download their opponents early. Pereira owns the one-punch finishing power that Gane lacks, and those trademark leg kicks should pay dividends as the rounds pile up.

After going back and forth all week, Millz landed on Alex Pereira in this one, trusting the knockout artistry and the leg-kick attack to eventually break Gane down, while still leaning the over since neither man will want to take a reckless risk on this stage. The big question is how Pereira’s power and gas tank translate carrying extra weight at heavyweight, but Millz is betting the skill and finishing instincts carry over.

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje — Title Fight

The headliner features the undefeated Ilia Topuria, “El Matador,” at 17-0 defending against the always-violent Justin Gaethje. Topuria is a heavy favorite near -550, and the under on one and a half rounds is priced around -110. Topuria has publicly promised a first-round finish, and Millz buys the aggression, calling Topuria a solid parlay piece who likely wins inside the distance. Gaethje carries knockout power against anyone, so a dog flier is defensible, but Millz sides with the champion’s superior all-around arsenal.

Millz Young’s Best Bets Recap

To summarize the card, Millz’s most confident play is the under one and a half rounds in Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit, paired with Hokit’s moneyline. He also likes Diego Lopes, Bo Nickel as a parlay piece with the over, a value swing on Michael Chandler at plus money, the over two and a half in the Zahabi fight with a small underdog sprinkle, Alex Pereira with the over, and Ilia Topuria to win inside the distance as a parlay anchor. It is a card built for parlays and creative round-total props.

As always, none of these plays are guarantees, and combat sports carry more variance than almost any market in betting — one clean shot can flip a fight and a parlay in an instant. Manage your bankroll, shop for the best round-total numbers, and treat the longshots as small fliers rather than core plays. For Millz’s premium picks and best bets, hit the premium tab, and for more free breakdowns head to tonyspicks.com and the Tony’s Picks YouTube channel. Enjoy this historic night of fights and bet responsibly.